If their goal is to train say, a 100T model on the whole youtube dataset they will need 20000x more compute. And that would be my goal if I were him.

Edit: looked it up. 10k+ times more for training compute. Sheesh. Get the Dyson sphere ready lol.

It's that dumbass at your work who thinks that solely because he landed a job that pays him more than their parents ever made combined in his early 20s he can school everyone on every topic imaginable, from nutrition to religion.

Him and Elon makes way more than that dumbass so ego get inflated even more.

I don't especially like Tucker Carlson, but I think the more screen time we'll give to this people with an open mic it's better for everyone to have a first hand experience of how detached from reality these people are.

I've never met an executive I respect. They're all absolute experts at appearing competent.

Idk, seems like we’re in a pretty shit situation politically right now because many delusional men were given an open microphone access.

As much as it would be nice to believe we lived in a world where people can discern truth from illusion, that doesn’t seem to be the case.

And, given that, it seems like the wisest course of action would be to come up with some means of forcing mass media to adhere to fact and remove from public discourse anyone who refuses to acknowledge or espouse it, lest they bend reality in their interest, but instead we decided to invent machines for manufacturing the most sophisticated lies ever seen and disseminate them to everyone.

It’s not going to end well.

> And, given that, it seems like the wisest course of action would be to come up with some means of forcing mass media to adhere to fact and remove from public discourse anyone who refuses to acknowledge or espouse it...

How is it a wise course of action for people to force people to adhere to fact if we don't live in a world where people can discern truth? Don't you see the contradiction?

Some of them (almost) never turn it off. It’s unfortunate because it makes them seem completely disingenuous.

He does, or at least, he believes if its plausible they should attempt to.

We live in odd times. It sort of reminds me of Feb 2020. All you really needed to know was the Rt and rest was just math. Who knows if it'll matter or pencil out in a decade, but, it's completely reasonable at these growth rates and with the iron laws known to keep scaling.

I wouldn't put bets on what the outer limits for AI are going to be. However, it's a huge productivity boost across a huge range of workflows. Models are still making large gains as they become more sophisticated.

If I had Sam Altman's access to other people's capital, I would be making large bets that it will keep growing.

They're likely betting on either training a model so big they can't be ignored or possibly focusing more B2B which means lots of compute to resell.

Anthropic gets a TON of hate on social media, their models are fragile, their infra is poorly managed, they're 100% going to end up in Jeff's pocket. OpenAI is a survivor.

Altman figures AI will be a big deal and constrained by avaiable compute.

If he locks in all the available compute and related finance before the competition then he's locked in as the #1 AI company.

I'm not sure 20x or 5x or 40x matters, nor revenue expectations, so much as being ahead of the competition.

My pet theory: Sam makes more money when OpenAI spends than when OpenAI earns.

they also seem to assume that everyone will use AI from them in the future, especially with new "pulse" combined with ads. scaling this will need much more compute.

is this reasonable? I'm not convinced, but this is how I believe it's their reasoning