There isn't a genocide in Gaza, it's just a war, and casualty figures[1] are higher, but comparable to other modern urban conflicts such as the Battle of Mosul and not out of line with expectations.[2]

It's a war, and it's horrible, but it's not a genocide. However, in a different world where Hamas had the firepower of the IDF, we all know it would be a real genocide. They made that clear on Oct 7th with both actions and words.

You're welcome to make a counter-argument with numbers and logic, and compare to historical genocides, but you'll be forced to come to the same conclusion. Horrible as it is, and I am not disputing that, it is not a genocide.

[1] Even if you trust Gaza's health ministry numbers, which have already been proven to be inflated and quietly updated: https://www.euronews.com/2025/04/03/hamas-run-health-ministr...

[2] https://www.jstribune.com/frantzman-comparing-gaza-with-mosu...

[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIlA7QGofFE

Do not be so quick to excuse genocide, for people who far more qualified than yourself also agree with the rest of us (us being Humanity).

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/opinion/israel-gaza-holoc...

I read the entire article and was unconvinced. For a genocide expert, he really didn’t lay out the argument well. And I think that’s because, at the end of the day, you can’t. The numbers don’t support it.

It would be very easy to change my entire opinion and convert me to your side - but I only respond to logical arguments made with factual data.

> It would be very easy to change my entire opinion and convert me to your side.

You're right. We should all be focused on your opinion and appeasing you when there is a systematic erasure and starving off of an indigenous population. We should totally wait until this current trajectory has been completed, and in the meantime say "well akshully guys, it's not a genocide yet".

Either way, clearly the bombing of civilian hospitals, schools, and starving of the indigenous population with state support is not a genocidal event. That would be totally illogical, as this is clearly a classic in-the-trenches war.

And while Hamas have offered to step aside, offered all prisoners in Feb 2025 in exchange for a complete withdrawal, and only 25% of Gazans support Hamas, this is definitely your standard war and not an occupied territory where a genocide is being committed.

You can repeat it as much as you want. It’s not a genocide. Obviously not all wars are fought in the trenches. This one has the enemy hiding under hospitals and schools using the populace as human shields. They desire more civilian casualties, because that helps them win the PR war. Convincing people like you who aren’t so good at logical reasoning.

> You claim my opinion doesn’t matter, but you want others to care about your opinion. You see the problem with that right?

Problem? I called you out for making it about you, which is a technically weird and narcissistic trait when there is a clearly actions consistent with a genocide-in-progress that is occurring. But you dodged that, didn't you?

> You can repeat it as much as you want. It’s not a genocide.

Thanks, but I actually don't need your permission to do this.

> This one has the enemy hiding under hospitals and schools using the populace as human shields

Totally! You absolutely have to bomb and obliterate an entire hospital full of children and starving patients to destroy your poorly-equipped enemy that may be hiding there. You can't just enter it with drones, robots, etc and light personnel. It's almost like that would require Israel to be be armed by the global superpower who has the most superior military technology in the world.

Same goes for destroying all critical infrastructure of a people, denying aid, and failing to communicate where "kill zones" are for civilians who are living in terror everyday. Totally not consistent with a genocide that is occurring. Far better that we stand by, let this trend continue, and wait until we hit your requisite kill count before calling it a genocide.

> They desire more civilian casualties, because that helps them win the PR war.

You don't think you may be a bit suggestible? It really sounds like you've for Zionist propaganda about PR wars and "beheaded babies". Somehow I don't think you're very interested in steelmanning your ideas.

> Convincing people like you who aren’t so good at logical reasoning.

You're right. It's humbling being in the present of somebody who sees situations with breathtaking clarity. Teach me your ways.

You and I disagree on everything, let’s leave it at that. Further discussion would not be fruitful.

Here’s a New York Times opinion piece (penned literally one week later) that comes the opposite conclusion. Unsurprisingly people disagree about this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/opinion/no-israel-is-not-...

The Fox News entertainer’s worthless opinion differs from the person who studies genocide? You don’t say. You going to tell us Netanyahu disagrees next too?

Did you read the article? Instead of making ad-hominen attacks, can you counter the arguments within?

> The first question the anti-Israel genocide chorus needs to answer is: Why isn’t the death count higher?

If it's a genocide, it's the most ineptly executed genocide ever. From the same entity that humiliated and defanged both Hezbollah and Iran in days.

It really doesn't fit. It does look like a war though. Yes wars are horrible, and lots of bad things happen in wars.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44695878

>> The first question the anti-Israel genocide chorus needs to answer is: Why isn’t the death count higher?

> If it's a genocide, it's the most ineptly executed genocide ever.

Not if the intent is to kill as many as possible in a way that's politically acceptable.

Being overly efficient in their genocide would make it hard for people like you to defend their actions.

If we assume GHM's data is accurate, Gaza's overall population slightly declined during the first several months of war, but increased since. Casualties have been around ~20k/yr (fighters included), compared to something like ~50k/yr births.

How can it be a "slow, sneaky genocide" if the population is increasing? Has any other group faced serious genocide accusations in relation to an increasing population?

That birth rate is not accurate since the war started. Also, death rate is not accurate either if 60k have died in less than two years.

And the lack of trust in Israel's government is due to how little effort they seem to put into distinguishing between civilian and enemy combatant while in control of all surrounding borders.

If things continue as they have, then the number of starvations is about to increase dramatically.

So those who point at the numbers to say it's not genocide have a point, but if deniable genocide is Israel's intent, then all they have to do is continue to withhold food and a lot of Gazans starve to death.

I wasn't assuming pre-war birth rates. [1] suggests 45~50k/yr; [2] suggests ~34k/yr. They're rough figures, ignoring seasonality etc, but it's clear that there are significantly more births than GHM-reported casualties.

There's certainly food insecurity but it would need to get way worse to make a dent in these numbers; so far it's about 100 reported deaths linked to malnutrition during the conflict.

[1] https://www.savethechildren.net/news/about-130-children-born...

[2] https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/07/1165471

It has to be the most ineptly executed genocide in history - or it’s not a genocide.

There are really only those two options.

I actually agree with this, which is why I don’t think Israel will let starvation happen in Gaza. They’ll do what they have to do, because the can’t afford to have their few remaining allies turn on them.

Time will tell. But they’re not that stupid. I don’t think they’re that evil too, but I don’t have to be right about that.

Are you telling me with a straight face that it’s a genocide because it doesn’t look like a genocide to trick people into believing it’s not a genocide?

You’re denying a genocide. Even the western press is starting to admit it to cover their asses. European leaders are speaking their toothless rhetoric to cover their asses.

They are doing mass starvation and forced famine. They are slaughtering women and children by the tens of thousands, and likely more. They refuse to let anyone monitor this “war”. They kill aid workers. They deliberately target and kill doctors and health workers. Their leaders speak of cleansing Gaza of Palestinians and making it Jews only.

This isn’t a war, and you weren’t forced to think otherwise. You choose to be ignorant and support this vile, inhumane action.

Also you completely avoided the topic of the West Bank. Which disproves what you are saying pretty clearly and demonstrates this is a genocide targeting all Palestinians.

Prove it with numbers, not feelings.

Israel is making mistakes, and doing things they shouldn’t, no doubt. But they’re not committing genocide.

They refuse to let anyone monitor Gaza, they kill government officials, they destroyed almost all the hospitals.

Who exactly would be reporting these numbers you claim to want? The health ministry that is barely functioning; the one you already said you don’t believe?

It’s a ghetto undergoing a genocide. It’s farcical to say you want hard numbers when Israel and the US are doing everything they can to hide it.

Use the health ministry numbers, let’s pretend they’re accurate. Compare that with wars versus genocides and tell me which this resembles more closely.

It’s an easy exercise. I’ve done it. It’s a war.

It’s not accurate, it’s undercounted. There is no working health system in Gaza. So, once again, who is supposed to be keeping an accurate count that would satisfy your need for numbers?

That’s a cheap cop out to not do the work. Multiply the numbers by two to account for your alleged undercounting. Estimate how many of those are combatants and how many civilians. Compare to other urban guerrilla warfare. I’ll respect you if you at least try the exercise.

Acknowledging the reality of the situation and the limits of what data is available is a cop out? We should instead use the inaccurate numbers and some arbitrary method you decided to analyze it instead?

You’re just trolling at this point.

I knew you were all talk and no substance. It took me 10 minutes: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44695878

You’re the one using inaccurate data, which even you admit starts skewing towards being a genocide if you don’t just blindly believe Israeli propaganda.

I’m happy to admit the data is uncertain. I can then use the words of Israelis, the actions of the IDF, the actions in the West Bank, and the governments attempts to stifle free speech to infer this is in fact a genocide.

Oh by the way, which definition of genocide says it has to be a certain number or ratio? This is a completely arbitrary metric you’ve decided to focus on.

Genocide is extremely vague. It requires intentionally killing members of a group just because they're members of a group. It makes no requirement about how many need to be killed - but obviously that matters too. Oct 7th had both intent and the actions - killing Israeli's of all ages just because they were Jews - but it wasn't a genocide because it was mercifully limited in scope. So scale must matter.

I would argue it's like porn, you know it when you see it. Rwanda, Armenia, Bosnia, the Holocaust.

Censoring information in war, which every country does, is not proof of genocide.

Israel is the only country that I am aware of in all of history actually providing food and other essentials to the enemy side during a war. That's not the actions of an entity intent on committing genocide. Without intent, it's not a genocide.

You can say they're being cavalier with human life in Gaza, which happens to an extent in every war, but even then the numbers show they're at least acting with some restraint. Again, that rules out genocide.

Words mean things, you can't just call a war a genocide because it's violent.

> Genocide is extremely vague.

Sounds like something a genocide apologist would say.

> Oct 7th had both intent and the actions - killing Israeli's of all ages just because they were Jews

That's not why, and you know it. The whole world knows it's because Palestinians are tired of being occupied, sieged, kidnapped, and murdered.

> I would argue it's like porn, you know it when you see it. Rwanda, Armenia, Bosnia, the Holocaust.

Do the world's genocide scholars know it when they see it too? The world's human rights groups? Because they call this genocide, or even a holocaust.

> Censoring information in war, which every country does, is not proof of genocide.

That's a funny way to put "targeting and killing record numbers of journalists".

> Israel is the only country that I am aware of in all of history actually providing food and other essentials to the enemy side during a war.

I'm almost too angry about the shocking brazenness of this unhinged lie to think clearly... I mean, Gaza in the fifth and final 5 of famine right now. The consequences of this will be felt for generations of Palestinians.

Aid trucks all around Gaza have been sitting around unable to move this entire time. Only last night a boat with aid in international waters was seized and it's occupants kidnapped; the second time in recent weeks. Only this week, the IDF admitted there was no evidence whatsoever of Hamas 'stealing aid'l the excuse which has been given to inflict starvation on an occupied territory in defiance of international law and all decency.

Israel has blocked baby formula, antibiotics, anesthetics - and many other essentials even before October 7th, and you come here and claim this. It's filthy, it's obscene. I believe it ought to be criminal to deny a live-streamed holocaust like this, attempting to manufacture consent for unforgivable atrocity.

There's much more to say, but I'm only putting this down for the record. No one who can talk like you do after the last couple years has the smallest iota of good faith.

The UN has a very clear definition. It isn’t vague, why pretend it is? You’re a clown for saying words mean things and then ignoring the actual definition.

They also provide enough aid so that the average Gaza gets less calories than the prisoners in German concentration camps got. So no, they aren’t providing shit.

GHF isn't only reporting casualties recorded by the regular health system though. They've been incorporating casualty reports from a variety of other sources, including a Google form where regular Gazans report casualties.

They are confiscating baby formula from doctors visiting Gaza to induce starvation.

That's not something you do as an act of war, that's planned genocide.

You are a genocide apologist.

Prove it with numbers.

There are plenty of criticisms one can make about how Israel is behaving in this conflict. But that’s a far cry from a genocide.

By the time you can prove it with numbers, it's already too late.

You're right that it's not a genocide yet, but you can't use death statistics to claim that it is or is not a possible genocide in progress.

That requires looking at other aspects of the situation.

That's not true at all. The historic genocides I listed were apparent while in progress. The fact that after two years no genocide is apparent should make it obvious that no genocide is in progress.

That doesn't rule out one happening in the future, but why now? It's such a weak argument.

There is no number that would "convince" you that what is going on in Gaza is a genocide, admit it. Israel could complete what its leaders openly claim they want to do, and leave Gaza empty of life. And yet, you'd still be here going "nope, just a war, nothing out of the ordinary here".

Israel is shooting down journalists, medics and foreign aid to muddy the waters and you're eating out of their hands. I don't believe anyone can still legitimately be fooled by what is currently happening over there.

Israel is voluntarily starving the civilian population and its leaders are even bragging about it [0]. This is not a war tactic, this is genocide. Anyone still refusing to acknowledge this is either a complete fool (which I don't believe you are) or a vile genocide-supporter. Get out of here.

[0] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/24/how-israel-pushed-g...

There is a number. If the casualties were above 200,000 it would certainly make the case for a genocide much stronger. That's a high civilian to combatant casualty ratio. Hamas has an estimated 30-40K fighters. Numbers like that would mean a 10:1 civilian to combatant ratio which is high for a modern war. Higher than WWII[1], Vietnam, Iraq[2], etc. I'd at least have to admit Israel is prosecuting the war in a very cavalier way in regards to the lives of civilians.

The Iraq war, for example, had a roughly 3:1 ratio of civilians to combatants killed.[2]

If we take the Gazan Health Ministry numbers of 60k casualties of which Israel claims about 23K were Hamas fighters (neither number can be trusted at face value, but it gives us a starting point) then we see a ratio of 2:1. Which is pretty normal for war. Given how densely populated and urban Gaza is, how Hamas uses civilians as human shields, it's actually miraculously low. Not downplaying how horrible it is that so many people have died, but it could be much worse.

You could say the Hamas-run Gazan Health Ministry is understating the numbers, but it'd be hard to make a case for more than 80K[3]. You could say Israel has over stated how many Hamas fighters it has killed, but independant intelligence assessments estimate about 15K. If you take the absolute worst case estimate, it's 5:1, which is about the same as Myanamr, worse than Iraq, but better than Chechnya.

There's no way to twist that into a case for genocide. It doesn't fit. Lets look at what civilian to combatant ratio looks like in genocides:

Rwandan Genocide - 80 : 1

Armenian Genocide - 1000 : 1

Bosnian Genocide - 50 : 1

Yazidi Genocide by ISIS - 1000 : 1

Holocaust - 1000 : 1

It's clearly a war, not a genocide.

- [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties

- [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War

- [3] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-02009-8

“Almost a third of people in Gaza not eating for days, UN food programme warns” https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgjg81qqwvo.amp

*Every third person* not eating for days and hundreds being killed in aid lines. Do we have to literally wait for these people to starve to death before admitting that maybe this rings of ethnic cleansing, just a little?

There's more to that story: https://x.com/HilzFuld/status/1948097196055810061

> Do we have to literally wait for these people to starve to death before admitting that maybe this rings of ethnic cleansing, just a little?

I don't mean to sound callous, but that would make it a genocide. Until it happens, it is not. The current truth of the matter is shrouded by the fog of war.

Maybe a couple months from now there has been mass starvation in Gaza and I'm on your side. But I don't think Israel is either stupid or evil enough to let that happen.

This is an unsourced and contextless video from somebody who was literally banned from australia for islamophobia. We are too quick to trust social media randos these days. Show me some actual reporting.

Meanwhile, regarding past disinfo on a similar subject: “USAID analysis found no evidence of massive Hamas theft of Gaza aid” https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/usaid-analysis-fou...

“I don't mean to sound callous, but that would make it a genocide. Until it happens, it is not. The current truth of the matter is shrouded by the fog of war.”

How convenient. Well, the purpose of labeling something genocide isn’t to wag your finger. It’s to incentivize action, such as withdrawing military support. In a couple of months it may be too late.

There are a million sources saying the same thing on X, but how about the latimes? https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2025-07-25/israel...

There are videos of Hamas stealing Gaza aid. How widespread that is tough to tell through the fog of war.

Huh, weird this just came out from Israeli sources then:

No Proof Hamas Routinely Stole U.N. Aid, Israeli Military Officials Say

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/26/world/middleeast/hamas-un...

Huh, video proof that they do: https://nypost.com/2024/10/10/world-news/hamas-steals-humani...

Again how widespread that was is lost to the fog of war. I don't trust what anyone is saying about the subject, including Israel right now.

Btw, as we speak Israel just announced they will be resuming airdrops of aid into Gaza, with Israel taking the first shift and foreign organizations being permitted to take over after Sunday. This is not the actions of an entity intent to commit genocide.

I mean, you can’t just straight up starve 2 million people to death without everyone turning on you. Have to ratchet up to it one atrocity at a time. Maybe even let up the slack every once in a while -- then double down once the news mellows a bit.

The fact that forcibly relocating millions of people and paving over their homeland to build a resort is now within the Overton window says everything there is to say. Would have been unthinkable even a year ago.

I can see there’s no reasoning with you

You're the one defending a genocide here, you won't ad hominem your way out of this.

You’re the idiot who still thinks it’s a genocide after I proved it isn’t. And failed to back up your argument with anything of substance. Ad hominem is frankly not a fallacy at this point, you’re clearly not the brightest.

Israel's been lying about sending aid into Gaza for months at this point. How anyone can still fall for their propaganda is beyond me.

> Israel says it’s distributing aid in Gaza, so why are people starving? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/26/israel-says-its-dis...

I’m wondering exactly the same thing. How do people fall for the propaganda of Hamas, but here we are…

> I don't trust what anyone is saying about the subject, including Israel right now.

If that was true, then you wouldn't have such a strong opinion on the subject.

You mean like your opinion?

Do you understand fog of war? Both sides say things that are false or exaggerated, and it's difficult to discern the truth because information is censored and journalists are restricted in their movement and what they can report. This not unique to this conflict, you see the same thing in the Russia-Ukraine war, and in the recent Thailand Cambodia skirmishes.

I don't trust what either side says, I assume the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

One of the more balanced and accurate sources, in my opinion, has been Preston Stewart on Youtube[1], especially on the Russia-Ukraine war. He sources things frequently from military bloggers from both sides in their native language and verifies what he can and is honest about what is unconfirmed.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/@PrestonStewart

That article shows nothing of the sort. It has screenshots of a supposed video with no confirmation of who was in the video. It was more likely the ISIS linked gangs that Israel is arming and supporting.

Oh and the airdrop was less aid than would have been carried on a single truck. It is PR to cover for the famine.