By the time you can prove it with numbers, it's already too late.

You're right that it's not a genocide yet, but you can't use death statistics to claim that it is or is not a possible genocide in progress.

That requires looking at other aspects of the situation.

That's not true at all. The historic genocides I listed were apparent while in progress. The fact that after two years no genocide is apparent should make it obvious that no genocide is in progress.

That doesn't rule out one happening in the future, but why now? It's such a weak argument.