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Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by myflash13 on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @09:47AM (#43845194)
> do you commit millions to building something that doesn't pay off until 5 years from now?

This is exactly the kind of short-termism that got us to where we are now. Why is it so hard to think on a 5-10 year timeline? This is country-level ADHD. Anything worth building requires long term investments. People in the past used to spend their life building cathedrals that they knew would never be finished in their lifetime, and now you're questioning whether it's worth investing in something that has an expected ROI in 5 years!

Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by nemomarx on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @09:50AM (#43845243)
But what if 2 years in all the tariffs are cancelled and you go bankrupt?

if you want people to think long term you need long term stable policies that won't change the next time someone else sits in the oval office or Congress changes hands. you need to commit to a strategy.

Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by myflash13 on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @09:54AM (#43845295)
But what if you die tomorrow? But what if tomorrow your restaurant is bombed by Russia? I've lived in Ukraine and seen how entrepreneurs build new businesses even in cities that get regularly bombed. And they put their heart and soul into it too, not just do the minimum necessary to survive.

This is exactly what is wrong with American culture. Not willing to take risks to build something great.

Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by bumby on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @10:08AM (#43845481)
I think this may be missing the difference in differential risk.

If I live in a place with constant uncertainty, taking one uncertain bet over another makes little difference.

If I instead live in a place of relative historic stability with (real or perceived) short-term uncertainty, it makes a lot of sense to wait until the relative stability has returned.

Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by myflash13 on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @12:41PM (#43847719)
Entrepreneurs in Ukraine have other options. Instead of building a restaurant or factory they could sit on their money for a few years until the war ends.
Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by bumby on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @01:10PM (#43848117)
And do you think that is an equal differential in risk compared to someone in the US doing the same? I can think of at least a handful of reasons why that may not be the case.
Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by georgeecollins on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @11:16AM (#43846466)
>> Not willing to take risks to build something great.

8 of the top 10 companies in the world we're started in America in the last fifty years. If you were try to guess where the next world beating companies are going to come from I am sure some will come from China, Europe, South America, but still most from the US. The US still puts the world to shame in putting capital at risk on new ideas.

Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by senordevnyc on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @09:57AM (#43845336)
Building a factory for billions isn't the same thing as opening a restaurant.
Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by ActorNightly on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @12:23PM (#43847427)
If you had a sane administration that actually had anything resembling of a plan to bring back US manufacturing, then it would be a different story.

Betting on insanity is not "courageous risk taking"

Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by zorked on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @09:50AM (#43845242)
You are free to spend billions betting in an unstable government then. Show them how it's done!

Oh, you meant other people's money.

Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by Sparkle-san on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @09:51AM (#43845259)
The ROI isn't 5 years, it's more that it won't generate any returns for 5 years and those returns might not pan out depending on policy change. If you build an American factory and right as it's getting up and running, the next administration rolls back all tariffs, you're left with massive debt and everyone undercutting your prices.
Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by myflash13 on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @09:55AM (#43845318)
Risk. It's called "doing business". Anyone who has built anything great took risks because they had a vision and believed in it. They weren't "rent seeking" and looking for guaranteed returns.
Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by sharemywin on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @10:12AM (#43845530)
the upside has to justify the risk or it isn't a good investment.
Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by BizarroLand on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @11:43AM (#43846812)
There's a mousetrap down that hall and I don't smell any cheese
Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by senordevnyc on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @09:58AM (#43845351)
Show 'em how it's done then.
Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by Remnant44 on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @04:14PM (#43850148)
You're missing half the equation.

It's Risk vs Reward. Anyone who built something great took huge risks, for a huge return.

There is no return here. At best, you've sunk a ton of capital into a low-profit business that is propped up only by government subsidy.

Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by sharemywin on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @10:10AM (#43845507)
probably why congress should be putting tariffs into laws.
Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by Lendal on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @10:40AM (#43845931)
Even if all those factories were built instantaneously, it still results in made-in-usa prices for all Americans for everything coming out of those factories, along with protective tariffs forever. A factory can't be constructed or operate going forward in the US for the same price as in China. The moment any president drops tariffs, all those factories will shut down immediately.
Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by mcphage on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @10:24AM (#43845707)
> Why is it so hard to think on a 5-10 year timeline?

Because the tariff plans have changed every few days. If the tariffs were stable over 5-10 years, businesses would adapt.

> This is country-level ADHD.

Yes, these tariffs are.

Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by hypeatei on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @09:50AM (#43845238)
This isn't long term thinking industrial policy. Flip flopping and using ChatGPT to steer tariff policy isn't looking ahead. Pure delusion.

Trump has control of all branches yet isn't passing any legislation. All he's doing is introducing uncertainty.

Re:U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter by UncleMeat on Wednesday April 30, 2025 @12:20PM (#43847384)
What bank is going to finance a loan for a new factory whose profitability is predicated on this trade policy remaining stable for the next decade? Even if you as a business owner have appetite for this risk, the bank won't.