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Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by fancyfredbot on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:35PM (#43635728)
Too late for everyone who spent massively on flying in stock ahead of the tariff deadline. Too late for those forced to sell financial assets in order to pay margin calls. Too late for those working on projects involving foreign manufacturers which have now been cancelled due to tariff uncertainty. Too late for those who lost sales while they figured out pricing. Too early for the people fundraising to build US manufacturing capabilities. What a mess.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by skyyler on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:40PM (#43635804)
It's almost like the whole point is just to enable insider trading on a scale we've never seen before.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by pixelesque on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:57PM (#43636118)
https://bsky.app/profile/unusualwhales.bsky.social/post/3lmf...

Seems to show people knew it was going to happen a few minutes before he posted.

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by nialv7 on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:52PM (#43636028)
Remember that "debunked" rumor tweet on Monday that created a market rollercoaster ride? The one that predicted exactly this?

What the hell is even going on

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by mcphage on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:09PM (#43636312)
> What the hell is even going on

What if the Stock Market was entirely converted to Meme Stocks?

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by bdangubic on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:11PM (#43636345)
it is not already?! :)
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by mcphage on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:15PM (#43636421)
Apparently not 100%. But they closed that little loophole. :-)
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by Why_O_My on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @05:01PM (#43637954)
Just a dry run before the real event. Working as intended, nothing to worry about...
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by jstummbillig on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:45PM (#43635882)
Is there any reliable instrument to find out? This seems so obvious, given the only alternative option seems to be believing they are completely insane.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by alabastervlog on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:47PM (#43635934)
The independent IGs installed after all Nixon's criming might be in a good position to check up on that.

But he illegally (without required notice period and specific reason provided to Congress) fired them right at the beginning of his term.

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by fancyfredbot on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:51PM (#43636014)
You could look at https://www.capitoltrades.com/ in a few days. Of course you'd probably expect the average senator/congressional representative to be smart enough not to go insider trading on their own monitored account...
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by layer8 on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:48PM (#43635969)
The alternative you mention is more likely, given all we know. On the other hand, why not both.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by rqtwteye on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:08PM (#43636291)
Anybody who could investigate probably got fired. After the pardons of Blagojevich and the Nikola guy it’s pretty clear that scamming is ok now.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by paganel on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:12PM (#43636369)
TIL that the Nikola guy got pardoned.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by pstuart on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:49PM (#43635975)
Ah, there's the rub. Even with a smoking gun there's no political will to do anything about it.

> are completely insane

More likely detached from reality, laser focused on personal gain, and punishing perceived enemies.

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by HumblyTossed on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:47PM (#43635946)
I mean it's all right there out in the open. He fired anyone who could hold him accountable and now he is openly manipulating the markets.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by JackYoustra on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:47PM (#43635940)
Doesn't make much sense, if you're insider trading you profit more if you move one stock a lotlotlot vs all the stocks merely a lot.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by acdha on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:51PM (#43636013)
Buy the NASDAQ at 1:17PM. Sell at 2PM. You’ve just made 10% without doing any work. If you’re doing any kind of leveraged play, you can get even higher returns.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by JackYoustra on Thursday April 10, 2025 @11:18PM (#43650183)
my point is that's the exact same if its a random microcap, just massively magnified. The president can easily cause triple digit swings. Doing a broad market movement is inefficient from this point of view.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by astral_drama on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:00PM (#43636173)
He does all the above!

He owns his own social media stock (DJT), where he post this morning "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT" to his followers. Attracting more to his social media company.

He has a meme coin in cryptoland, and now via tariff manipulation, he can guide select people to place big bets on the largest derivatives market.

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by HeatrayEnjoyer on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:14PM (#43636406)
They're also creating a "crypto national reserve".

Grifter crypto scams aren't necessary when it's possible to fleece taxpayers directly.

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by skyyler on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:48PM (#43635953)
Like I said, on a scale we've never seen before.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by dralley on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:55PM (#43636069)
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by jeffbee on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:50PM (#43635989)
Derivatives had huge moves based on these announcements. Out-of-the money SPX E-mini puts went up 10x after tariffs were announced. Near-the-money E-mini calls doubled after today's announcements. These are zero-risk insider strategies.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by cyral on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:52PM (#43636029)
SPY 530 calls for today went from literally 2 cents to $2, $3, maybe $4 if someone timed it right.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by jeffbee on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:55PM (#43636076)
They're at $9 on my delayed screen. Obviously I don't have the optimal insider derivatives strategy at the tip of my fingers!
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by dralley on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:54PM (#43636061)
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by bamboozled on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:11PM (#43636343)
I believe that’s what is going ons
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by xenospn on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:07PM (#43636268)
It’s now called just “trading”.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by 9283409232 on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:06PM (#43636250)
Biggest pump and dump ever.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by cmurf on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:55PM (#43636081)
https://bsky.app/profile/unusualwhales.bsky.social/post/3lmf...

"Alright, I think people knew of the tariff pause and traded it beforehand ... "

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by amirhirsch on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:57PM (#43636115)
No one will make long-term investments in US manufacturing capabilities in response to policy that will revert in 4 years.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by arrrg on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:05PM (#43636248)
It’s worse than that. Everything leading up to this and this reversion right now is a perfect demonstration that the current US administration cannot be trusted and behaves in irrational ways. You cannot expect consistency and enduring policies. It’s all fickle and capricious. How are you supposed to do any planning with this?

This is all so obviously dumb and I’m frankly astounded by so many people (especially here on HN) playing devils advocate or, I don’t know, honestly believing that this all makes sense.

Even if you agree with the stated (also somewhat incoherent, by the way) goals why do you think this implementation can achieve any of that?

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by nilkn on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:12PM (#43636367)
I believe the point is power, and from that lens everything makes perfect sense. Trump is exercising available levers of global influence -- for good or for bad -- in a way that hasn't occurred since Hitler initiated World War II.

Tariffs are appealing to him because they are incredibly forceful blunt instruments over which he alone has almost complete control. They give him immense, immediate influence over the entire world. What we're seeing is that the US President today, if the full capacities of that office are pushed as far as possible without violence, is arguably one of (if not the) most powerful human beings ever.

Beyond this, Trump has said that one of his greatest weapons is uncertainty. He wants to be feared. Having people genuinely afraid of you is the next step of power that he is already flirting with by posting videos of people being blown up in warfare on social media.

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by MammaMia2025 on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:24PM (#43636570)
And what will he do when China and rest of the world tired of his untreated Narcissistic Personality Disorder will start selling US debt, like $trillions in bonds in say less than a week? I bet you finally someone broke the secret to him today, so he reverted the policy.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by brundolf on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:10PM (#43636326)
Or 4 days
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by rchaud on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @08:09PM (#43639333)
The White House can pressure red states to offer companies sweetheart deals so the President can take credit. If they refuse, he pulls his support for them come election time.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by BuckRogers on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @08:54PM (#43639589)
Yes they will, because when industry can't bet on being tariff free outside the US, they'll hedge their bets and have at least some manufacturing here. The damage is already done in that regard. The instability is the warning across the bow for companies that import.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by dtquad on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:18PM (#43636476)
>Too early for the people fundraising to build US manufacturing capabilities.

It's a good idea to hedge against future trade uncertainties.

After COVID some Danish and German companies began looking for non-Chinese alternatives for electronics manufacturing. The only area where China is the absolute better alternative is PCB manufacturing without mounting chips/components. The Danish and German companies get tens of thousands of these bare PCBs from China. The chips/components are from Taiwan, South Korea, the US, Italy, and Germany and can be cost effectively mounted in Denmark and Germany.

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by brundolf on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:09PM (#43636313)
And who knows where his whims will go tomorrow
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by mschuster91 on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:14PM (#43636391)
> Too late for those forced to sell financial assets in order to pay margin calls.

That's the true aim behind all of this constant course shifting. The ultra rich, those who have large amounts of liquid assets or outright cash, can make bank at the moment... buy the dip. Even if the markets dip another 20%, they'll rebound soon enough.

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by KennyBlanken on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:21PM (#43636518)
Not really sure why you left out the tens of thousands of people who were almost immediately laid off when companies and their suppliers idled factories?

In the automotive sector alone - GM, Ford, and Stellantis all flipped the master breaker to "off" on a number of plants and sent everyone packing.

That hire-back will not be instant. People are going to miss payments for rent/mortgage, car loans, utility bills, etc.

Let's not forget that many companies hit the brakes, hard, on exporting goods to the US - so there's going to be the shipping equivalent of those traffic "waves" because two hours ago someone on the highway panic-braked

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by fancyfredbot on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @04:25PM (#43637481)
In my defence I mentioned it was "Too late for those working on projects involving foreign manufacturers which have now been cancelled due to tariff uncertainty" which I think covers these auto workers?

Still I'm sure I unintentionally missed many examples of people who've been negatively affected by this saga. I didn't mean anything by that, it's just ignorance or lack of thought on my part.

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by sleepyguy on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:45PM (#43635885)
Markets are celebrating. How long before they realize that the China tariffs will destroy the profits of companies like Walmart, Apple, Dollar Store, Harbor Freight, etc, and a 10% tax hike on consumers across the board on all other imports? We are still headed for a recession, and the destruction from the greatest deal maker who ever lived will be lasting.

Let's not forget everything else he's doing because there is nothing good in the plan.

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by louthy on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:58PM (#43636133)
It’s clear the China tariffs (in their current form) won’t last the week.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by MammaMia2025 on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:14PM (#43636403)
unless President Xi calls him tomorrow invites to Beijing and turns out to be "great guy". Followed by tariffs for China lowered to 20%.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by arandomusername on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @10:09PM (#43639980)
Oh no, not my Apple!

The hike will not be 10% on consumers. In most cases the seller will eat a good chunk of the cost otherwise it won't sell.

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by acdha on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @10:13PM (#43639998)
Not many companies have the margins to shrug off 10%, and if there isn’t a cheap domestic alternative everyone in the market will be raising prices.

Take coffee, tea, or chocolate: Americans buy a ton of those, there’s almost no domestic production, and most of the market lives on tight margins. Trump’s tax hike means that the average consumer’s choices devolve to paying more or buying less.

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by arandomusername on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @10:31PM (#43640078)
Nestle has a profit margin of ~15%.

If they raise prices by 10%, consumers will buy significantly less. There's a sweetspot somewhere for max profit, it's not 10% and probably not 0% either.

Coffee and tea are very cheap when you buy from a retailer and make it yourself, 10% is nothing anyway. Stuff like starbucks have crazy profit margings. Chocolate is a delicacy that shouldn't be consumed in large quantities anyway. That shit should have a 200% tax.

[dead]
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by sethops1 on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:43PM (#43635858)
Literally anyone with a 401k is an investor.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by trgn on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:14PM (#43636410)
trump's base is seniors counting down to social security, the rich, malcontents, and feds (his staff in other words) have gov pension plan. none of those care about the 401k people.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by scarface_74 on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:44PM (#43635877)
If you have a 401K heavily invested in stocks, you should be far enough away from retirement that short term swings don’t matter.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by cjbgkagh on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:53PM (#43636043)
There is also a bond market collapse for those people not invested in stocks precisely because they're close to retirement.

I think that was the real reasons that tariff effects were postponed, the increase in interests in the bond markets would have been too fatal too quickly.

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by JKCalhoun on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:51PM (#43636007)
New retirees "should" have 35% or 45% in stocks (using the 100 or 110 rule).
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by harikb on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:46PM (#43635907)
I think GP remark was just a funny take on 'think of the children!'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Think_of_the_children

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by SilasX on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:54PM (#43636063)
For generous definitions of "funny", maybe.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by sushxjxixbz on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @02:51PM (#43636003)
401k is just trickle down economics. Shrink the wealth gap and then this argument holds water.

As it is it lets the billionaires hold us hostage and the wealth gap will continue growing.

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by Aurornis on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:01PM (#43636191)
> think of the investors!

The stock market is a barometer for future predictions.

Stocks going down meant we were on track for everyone to have reduced buying power, which would impact company's bottom lines, which would make them less valuable.

Trying to see this as class warfare between investors and average people is missing the point.

Furthermore: Stocks are up, but yields did not drop. If this holds, it's still not good for the average person. Expect mortgage and auto rates to go up, combined with that 25% tariff on autos that wasn't delayed.

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by listenallyall on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:05PM (#43636246)
> Too late for those forced to sell financial assets in order to pay margin calls

Yea, I want my president looking out for financial vultures leveraged to the hilt

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by grandempire on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:02PM (#43636198)
Oh no. Stock isn’t risk free automatic gains?

I know that with RSUs etc people treat it that way. But no the risk is real.

Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by mikeocool on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:11PM (#43636336)
The US President intentionally crashing the market wasn't part of the risk profile until recently.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by grandempire on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:12PM (#43636366)
I wouldn’t pretend things that are outside my circle of influence are.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by BuckRogers on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @08:56PM (#43639597)
The President is crashing nothing. That are the globalists that want easy imported profit schemes based on indentured or slave labor.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by doctorwho42 on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:11PM (#43636351)
And everything is still inflating in cost.
Re:Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries by grandempire on Wednesday April 09, 2025 @03:12PM (#43636374)
Source?