Not where it matters. China has a much larger under-employed population base than the US has. They still have a few hundred million peasant farmers whose children can and are getting educated and moving to the city. Their pool of labour is growing while the US's is stagnant.
Not that it needs to grow -- over the last decade or so China's factory employment has been relatively constant while output has surged dramatically. Their factories are rapidly automating.
The race between manual labor and machine labor is heating up anew. We don't yet have humanoid robots but they're on the design table, so it may be time to fasten your seat belt.
Right ... so about that, here's Morgan Stanley's report on humanoid robots from a couple months ago:
Investors will notice that 73% of the companies confirmed to be involved in humanoids and 77% of integrators are based out of Asia (56%/45% out of China, respectively). A common refrain we hear from investors is the lack of Western firms to add to their humanoid portfolio outside of TSLA and NVDA. In our view, this is important information in and of itself as it represents the reality of the current humanoid ecosystem which we expect may need to change materially over time (see the West's current experience with EVs which has significant supply chain overlap with humanoids). Our research suggests China continues to show the most impressive progress in humanoid robotics where startups are benefitting from established supply chains, local adoption opportunities, and strong degrees of national government support.
https://advisor.morganstanley.com/john.howard/documents/fiel...
And those children will be burdened with caring for their elderly parents, often alone, continuing to keep internal consumption low. They are automating and moving up the supply chain, but have a long, long way to go as a nation.
The moment oil producing gulf states decide to stop buying USD bonds, they will receive "democracy".
The whole intent to fight Iran is not only to protect Israel, but also to choke off China's major oil supplier. If Iran folds into US control, it will be easier to choke China in terms of energy supplies
China's per capita purchasing power will increase rapidly if RMB becomes the world's preferred reserve currency.
Trump seems to be doing everything to speed up the former and as a result is also speeding up the latter.
I think so too prior to the Trump tarrifs. Now their influence abroad is picking up steam again, with former WW2 enemies now becoming trade allies. I think this has reinvigorated their opportunity.
I suspect they will squander the opportunity the US unforced error has provided, but we'll see.
China will surpass USA from a GDP Point of view in 2035.
China surpassed Germany as industry machines export in 2018.
Don't be so sure, this has become much less clear. For example, in this article: "The Centre for Economics and Business Research, which in 2020 predicted that China would overtake the U.S. by 2028, revised the crossover point two years later, to 2036. This month, the British consultancy said it will not happen in the next 15 years."
https://www.newsweek.com/2025/01/31/china-us-compete-biggest...
I'm in germany and i'm pissed. I will not go on holiday in USA and thinking proactivly how to boycot USA.
And i'm not even a company. A company wants stability, predictability and not chaos every 4 years. And this president is in office for only a few month.
Whatever strategy companys currently try to do is either sitting it out or starting to adjust. The adjustments might not just go back when USA is more stable again.
https://bigdatachina.csis.org/measurement-muddle-chinas-gdp-...
They have been projected to pass the USA in GDP for a long time now. We'll see if it happens. Their demographic trends are not favorable, but the US seems to be testing out how many self-sustained wounds its economy can survive.
Word for that, hubris
This can not be overstated. China is on the verge of the largest population collapse in human history.
By 2080 China's population will drop by 600 million. If that trend continues, by 2150 China's population will drop to 280 million.
Other asian countries such as South Korea and Japan are on a similar trajectory.
US, Canada, Europe are demographically cooked too, but they (partially) solve this problem with immigration, that is not an option for China and the rest of Asia.
"London Beats New York as the World’s Leading Financial Center in the Latest Ranking"
in 2015 before the glory that is Brexit.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-28/london-be...
Also, the UK hasn't dominated finance for a century and has never been dominant in services, so it doesn't seem like an apt comparison.