It's pointless to ask. Either you believe the story or you don't, but it's not like you can send a FOIA request to the FSB. It's doomed to remain a single-source allegation, even though I find the claim plausible.

As plausible as the pee tape?

No one is going to comment here wit any information that isn't trivially findable via google.

It would be beneficial to russia to spread such claims to sabotage US even further even if it's not real. The problem right now -- you can't be 100% sure that it's not. It was believable even before the claim was made.

There have been multiple books written about this, leaks from MI6, etc etc. It's not at all new and doesn't seem to have been debunked, just kind of glossed over.

Absolutely no way it can be proven. However, the actions of "Krasnov" certainly seem to point in that direction.

Thought experiment: Compare three scenarios, in which:

A Trump is not in any way beholden to Russia

B Trump has prospective business interests in Russia

C Trump follows Russian orders even at the cost of US interests

Which of these most easily explains the actual behavior we see?

Even if Trump seems to behave like in case C there could be others like

D Russia can blackmail Trump

E Russia pay Trump to act in favour of of Russia even at the cost of US interest.

> Russia can blackmail Trump

I don't think that's possible at all.

It's been proven time and time again that Trump is untouchable. He joked about being able to shoot somebody and not lose voters, and it's too true. People that love Trump love him because of the people he hurts, not the people he helps. If he shot someone, his supporters would be like "haha he murdered someone! That makes you so angry, doesn't it? MAGA!"

So, no, I don't think Russia could blackmail Trump. Any dirt Russia has on Trump could be released and it wouldn't decrease Trump's support. For fuck's sake, we already know he was a regular visitor to Epstein's Kiddie-Diddle Island.

I was expecting something like this to happen in 2023 after the catastrophic summer offensive. That was when it became abundantly clear that Ukraine was losing the war. There wasnt even a viable plan for victory after that it was just... keep giving weapons and keep those fingers crossed.

For Trump this is about washing his hands of a war that he understands cannot be won and will become an albatross around his neck if he doesnt disengage.

A makes complete sense if you have a full picture of the military industrial situation, but in the west there is very little cognizance of just how badly Ukraine is losing not how limited western options are.

"Krasov" is an appealing explanation because it means not facing this bitter reality.

Three years on and Ukraine is still holding its own. There's no reason this couldn't become Russia's Afghanistan 2.0.

Moreover, Ukraine's rules of engagement have been severely limited. They've been unable to strike airfields inside Russia even though they have the capacity to do so.

It's really not holding its own. The military situation is dire. Budanov accidentally let slip that they can keep going for another 6 months...1 month ago. That's probably about when a catastrophic line collapse will occur, if not sooner.

It's unlikely to become another Afghanistan because A) it does not have Afghanistan's superlative geography for hit and run attacks on supply chains and B) coz this war burned through Ukraine's best troops such that now mostly all they have left are TCC-kidnapped soldiers who would rather submit to Russia than fight.

I find it interesting how the Russian news agency TASS quotes the presidential aide of Russia:

"The election campaign is over," Patrushev noted. "To achieve success in the election, Donald Trump relied on certain forces to which he has corresponding obligations. As a responsible person, he will be obliged to fulfill them."

https://tass.com/politics/1870713/amp