I would say most acceleracionist/AI bulls/etc don't really understand the true essential complexity in software development. LLMs are being seen as a software development silver bullets, and we know what happens with silver bullets.
Is that what you mean and, if so, is there anything in particular you've seen that leads you to see these problems being solved well or on the 18 month timeline? That sounds interesting to look at to me and I'd love to know more.
You can't do point sampling to figure out where things are going. We have to look at the slope. People see a paper come out, look at the results and say, "this fails for x, y and z. doesn't work", that is now how scientific research works. This is why two minute papers has the tag line, "hold on to your papers ... two papers down the line ..."
Copy and paste the whole thread into a SOTA model and have meta me explain it.
They're doubting you because the non-digital portions of processes change at people/org speed.
Which is to say that changing a core business process is a year political consensus, rearchitecture, and change management effort, because you also have to coordinate all the cascading and interfacing changes.
You are thinking within the existing structures, those structures will evaporate. All along the software supply chain, processes will get upended, not just because of how technical assets will be created, but also how organizations themselves are structured and react and in turn how software is created and consumed.
This is as big as the invention of the corporation, the printing press and the industrial revolution.
I am not here to tutor people on this viewpoint or defend it, I offer it and everyone can do with it what they will.