Shooting down an commercial airliner seems far riskier / just more complicated / hassle compared to "typical" assassination efforts. It's not as if Russian leadership is afraid to do that.

Prigozhin.

Well it was general aviation (another Embraer Jet, coincidentally) as opposed to commercial, but close enough.

Still the most likely explanation is human error. There have been so many shoot downs of airlines across the world in the recent past that it is not surprising any more.

Prigozhin was about sending a message, and using a method of assassination that ultimately Prigozhin himself could not use. Only Putin can kill you with a missile strike.

Does he need cover? The windows people keep falling out of don't seem very covered.

Last I checked, Embraers don't have operable windows

Boeings on the other hand...

A lot of the denials / diversions made by Putin’s regime can seem absurd to us but we’re not necessarily the intended audience for them. The regime as a whole has a post-truth propaganda MO designed to subvert reality by offering competing and contradictory narratives in order to sow confusion and distrust.

Why would Putin need that? The plane was literally landing in russia. Putin could just have that person be arrested then or just disappear ("must have been russian maffia"). Not like russians try to hide murdering people.

Prigozhin was landing in Russia too.

A half hearted cover for assassination is very Russian. Unlikely falls, weird car crashes, novel poisons. It’s got a long history.

Prigozhin was a very different case, not that many people have their own paramilitary organization to defend them. Only other such person I can think of is someone like Kadyrov.

Yea, had it been Kadyrov I wouldnt rule out assination. But no such important person in russia flies commerical.

You mean the guy that had his own army, and had support by a large chunk of russia? The guy Putin had publicly said would face no criminal consequences?