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Re:From the Bretton Woods system to global stagnation [pdf] by pfdietz on Saturday December 07, 2024 @08:16PM (#42354214)
I think the game being played is considering mere improvement in performance or cost to not count, vs. initial invention.

The problem with that is there will be proto-inventions all around us that will later be improved and made economical, but we can't see them yet. So this approach is inherently biased, treating past and current innovation differently.

Re:From the Bretton Woods system to global stagnation [pdf] by foobarian on Saturday December 07, 2024 @08:31PM (#42354277)
I don't know, I think things like refrigeration or electricity or antibiotics were pretty visible. The closest I can think of in more recent times is the invention of the blue LED, which, it was obvious would open floodgates to 10x more efficient lighting. Maybe power semiconductors too, which unlock inverters for EV or solar. But it still doesn't compare in quality or quantity to early 20th century IMO.
Re:From the Bretton Woods system to global stagnation [pdf] by throw0101c on Sunday December 08, 2024 @07:12AM (#42356690)
> The closest I can think of in more recent times is the invention of the blue LED, which, it was obvious would open floodgates to 10x more efficient lighting.

Not wrong, and I wouldn't want to 'regress', but compared that to going from using gas lighting and candles to the incandescent light, the introduction of LED lighting isn't as much of a step change.

Also remember that there was a noticeable improvement in efficiency with fluorescent lamps pre-1970s:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluorescent_lamp

Re:From the Bretton Woods system to global stagnation [pdf] by foobarian on Sunday December 08, 2024 @12:57PM (#42358693)
Oh absolutely. The fact that that’s the best I could come up with is what concerns me the most.
Re:From the Bretton Woods system to global stagnation [pdf] by throw0101c on Saturday December 07, 2024 @08:35PM (#42354302)
> The problem with that is there will be proto-inventions all around us that will later be improved and made economical, but we can't see them yet.

Except that the book isn't taking about "proto-inventions" but items that could be purchased and used by the general public, from transportation (planes, trains, automobiles), food-related (refrigeration, microwaves, even induction cooking), radios, television, medicine (penicillin/anti-biotics).

All the major inventions (except the Internet) that we would association with 'modern civilization' were invented pre-1980.

Re:From the Bretton Woods system to global stagnation [pdf] by cperciva on Saturday December 07, 2024 @08:39PM (#42354316)
The first prototype Lithium Ion battery was 1985. I'd say that was a pretty major invention considering how many devices use them now.
Re:From the Bretton Woods system to global stagnation [pdf] by throw0101c on Saturday December 07, 2024 @08:46PM (#42354352)
> The first prototype Lithium Ion battery was 1985.

True to a certain extent:

> Research on rechargeable Li-ion batteries dates to the 1960s; one of the earliest examples is a CuF2/Li battery developed by NASA in 1965. The breakthrough that produced the earliest form of the modern Li-ion battery was made by British chemist M. Stanley Whittingham in 1974, who first used titanium disulfide (TiS2) as a cathode material, which has a layered structure that can take in lithium ions without significant changes to its crystal structure.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery#History

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_lithium-ion_bat...

But even if we grant that Li-ion batteries were a post-1970s innovation/invention—as opposed to a refinement of something that came before—it would still be one of the few that occurred, as the referenced book argues.

Re:From the Bretton Woods system to global stagnation [pdf] by pfdietz on Tuesday December 10, 2024 @08:21AM (#42376566)
The CuF2/Li cells you mention there used metallic lithium; they are not properly Li-ion batteries, where the Li ions serve only to shuttle charge across the electrolyte, not be reduced to Li metal.
Re:From the Bretton Woods system to global stagnation [pdf] by pfdietz on Saturday December 07, 2024 @08:46PM (#42354351)
So, one could buy a Picturephone in 1970, but it was completely impractical.

Today, any average person can do video calls across the world.

The "invention > refinement" idea would call these the same thing.

Re:From the Bretton Woods system to global stagnation [pdf] by throw0101c on Saturday December 07, 2024 @09:20PM (#42354532)
> Today, any average person can do video calls across the world.

Yes, the book makes the point that computers and the Internet was one of the inventions that were and an improvement post-1970s.

But the productivity bump of those seem to have peaked around 2004 (the book has numbers up to 2014, as it was published in 2016). Apple's iSight was released in 2003:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISight

The first webcam was in 1993:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trojan_Room_coffee_pot

Re:From the Bretton Woods system to global stagnation [pdf] by pfdietz on Sunday December 08, 2024 @11:34AM (#42358023)
US labor productivity has increased considerably since just after that book was published, so I strongly doubt the peaking claim there.
Re:From the Bretton Woods system to global stagnation [pdf] by pfdietz on Tuesday December 10, 2024 @08:16AM (#42376529)
Example of something that was a proto-invention in the 1970s and widely available now: monoclonal antibodies.

You know those pregnancy tests one can buy in the drug store? Based on MABs. Ditto those COVID tests. The Nobel-prize winning work that first created MABs occurred in the 1970s, but no product was available to consumers then.

MABs are ubiquitous in medicine now.