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Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by acyou on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @12:23PM (#42185920)
The paper looks like it has a large sample size, but it actually has a sample size of only 48 testers/flippers. Some of the videos of those testers show very low, low-rpm coin tosses, we're talking only 1-2 flips. Where they also flipped thousands of times, presumably in the same way. So there is actually a very small sample size in the study (N = 48), where testers that don't flip properly (low rpm, low height, few coin rotations) can affect the results disproportionately.

Doesn't look like the study author backgrounds are particularly focused on statistics. I would presume with 48 authors (all but 3 of which flipped coins for the study), the role of some might have been more test subject than author. And isn't being the subject in your own study going to introduce some bias? Surely if you're trying to prove to yourself that the coins land on one side or another given some factor, you will learn the technique to do it, especially if you are doing a low-rpm, low flip. Based on the study results, some of the flippers appear to have learned this quite well.

If the flippers (authors) had been convinced of the opposite (fair coins tend to land on the opposite side from which they started) and done the same study, I bet they could have collected data and written a paper with the results proving that outcome.

Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by anigbrowl on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @03:11PM (#42187589)
testers that don't flip properly

Clearly the coin flips at the beginning of sports fixtures need to be assessed by a panel of highly skilled judges who can pronounce on their validity. We'll also need local, regional, national, and international organizations to train, select, and maintain the quality of coin flipping judges and to maintain the integrity of the discipline while moving forward as new coins are minted and different sorts of flipping styles are proposed by. Membership of such organizations should be limited to those afilliated with the Ancient Order of Coin Flippers.

Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by askvictor on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @03:26PM (#42187733)
I was more thinking we'll need a Department of Randomness (or Ministry of Randomness for Westminster countries)
Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by pc86 on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @03:52PM (#42187968)
Perhaps whether it's a Department or a Ministry could be decided randomly.
Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by Green-Man on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @04:41PM (#42188396)
Randomly how? By a coin toss? Who will toss then? How many times? How skilled the participants should be? All these important questions must be decided by some authority. Sort of a Department of Equal Distribution. Or a Ministry of Fair Tosses. Wait a second...
Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by moi2388 on Wednesday November 20, 2024 @01:44AM (#42191337)
The obvious solution is to hand it off to the Department of Catch 22. Or the Ministry of infinite recursion. Wait..
Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by salt4034 on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @12:43PM (#42186149)
> testers that don't flip properly

I think that's the point. It shows that people don't usually flip properly, leading to biased results.

Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by lcnPylGDnU4H9OF on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @01:22PM (#42186573)
There is a [video presentation of the paper](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QjgvbvFoQA) which does a good job of explaining the inspiration for the study within the first few minutes.

It sounds like what they were intending to study is the actual variance that is introduced, on average, by imperfections in throws conducted by humans. Unless that's mistaken, it's a fair point to consider the n=48 here. Did they discover an average that can be generalized to humans or just to those 48?

Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by chongli on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @01:26PM (#42186614)
Yes and what immediately jumps out to me as a source of bias is that they asked this small group of 48 coin flippers to flip thousands of times each. I would’ve thought it would be obvious that when you ask people to do something thousands of times they might do it in a different (and biased) way than someone doing that thing only once.

Get a hundred thousand people to flip a coin once each and then see what happens!

Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by dfxm12 on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @02:53PM (#42187402)
Get a hundred thousand people to flip a coin once each and then see what happens!

Of all the stats we collect in sports, I wonder if someone has info on coin tosses in sports like American Football, Tennis, etc. I wonder if there are even rules regulating how a coin should be tossed in different sports...

Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by skykooler on Wednesday November 20, 2024 @08:00AM (#42193559)
Having stats on the outcome of coin tosses in sports wouldn't help, because it's unlikely that the state of the coin before flipping was recorded.
Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by fluoridation on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @02:08PM (#42186986)
What's more, from the numbers cited it sounds like they had 48 people do nothing but flip coins for 8 hours (avg. 15 flips/min). Whether continuous or with breaks, there's no way you won't become seriously consistent. 7000 flips is many more flips most people will perform in their entire lives.
Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by dylan604 on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @02:58PM (#42187453)
In some circles, they'd make a post about how their "AI" flipped a coin 8000 times.

Waiting for the HNer that likes electronics hacking to Show HN: My coin flipping robot I built over a weekend for consistent flips.

Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by arandomusername on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @01:26PM (#42186611)
Except that flipping a coin hundreds/thousands of time in a row is not a representive of how people will flip a coin a single time/few times.
Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by fluoridation on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @12:49PM (#42186225)
But is that the case? The only way I've ever seen people flip a coin is by flicking it in the air with their thumb and either catching it or letting it hit a surface. I've never seen someone flip a coin like it was a die.
Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by bambax on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @01:24PM (#42186595)
The real lesson is probably that if you're skilled enough, and/or train for long enough, you can influence the odds significantly without anyone ever noticing anything.
Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by lupire on Wednesday November 20, 2024 @07:59AM (#42193546)
That has been known for decades. It's not the lesson of this paper.
Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by jdlshore on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @03:22PM (#42187685)
The paper is an experimental validation of a previous paper that presented a statistical model. The experiment found the exact results predicted by the model. The reason for the non 50/50 result is precession of the coin.
Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by tomrod on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @01:23PM (#42186585)
Actually, I think it's more sound to approach this with clustered standard errors. Basic intuition is similar, but the sample size is what it is per person, and your observations aren't independent across draws but are across people.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustered_standard_errors

Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by KwisatzHaderack on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @12:49PM (#42186224)
> only 48 testers/flippers

I assumed they did these coin flips were done using a machine. But I guess they wanted to test if human flippers because they wanted to make claims about the human coin flip phenomenon.

Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by halgir on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @02:55PM (#42187418)
If you programmed a machine to flip a coin in the same exact way every time, would you not expect the coin to land the same way every single time? If you program some randomness into the machine to simulate human flipping, then you'd simply move scrutiny from the coin to the machine's programming.

I think the result could be better described as "humans tend to flip fair coins to land on the side they started".

Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by saagarjha on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @07:46PM (#42189700)
One would expect chaos effects to come into play.
Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by oefnak on Wednesday November 20, 2024 @01:28AM (#42191282)
One might, but that would be wrong.
Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by kybernetikos on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @01:06PM (#42186415)
But if you get someone to flip a coin thousands of times for a boring reason, I would lose confidence that they are flipping in the same way a normal human would.
Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by binarymax on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @12:54PM (#42186287)
1-2 flips should just invalidate the toss. Anyone in a real scenario upon seeing this would call shenanigans.

We need some minimum flippage for the toss to count.

Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by its-summertime on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @01:05PM (#42186401)
> the role of some might have been more test subject than author

The reason is because it was used as incentive:

> Intrigued? Join us and earn a co-authorship

Per the linked youtube video.

Re:Fair coins tend to land on the side they started: Evidenc... by saalweachter on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @12:43PM (#42186157)
If you are doing anything with human subjects, even something dumb like having them flip coins for an hour while recording the results, you need approval from your local ethics board.

If you are doing self-experimentation, you do not.

48 "authors" is a bit extreme, but it's the norm to do some light human research with a half dozen authors as the subjects.