But without customers(US big tech) who will buy 2nm chips, Huawei is not allowed. So im fully convinced that TSMC will become ASMC within a decade. The US has to much levers they can pull, the only buyers, chemicals, can export control key parts of ASML EUV machine, etc.

Why US big tech wouldnt buy it? It is just that manufacturing has to be on Taiwan's soil.

There is simply no way the west will always rely on fabs so close to mainland China.

The US might be able to defend Taiwan from being conquered, but nobody can protect the fabs from being shelled.

> There is simply no way the west will always rely [...]

This is the "on an infinite timescale" argument I think. It's been decades now that we rely on Taiwan, and the estimate give a few more decades to catch up if we start getting real serious about it right now, assuming Taiwan doesn't keep its lead.

So yes, eventually things might change. But that won't be tomorrow, or the day after.

Of course

Thats why US & EU Chips Act are a thing and Intel is building fabs.