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Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by paulcole on Friday October 11, 2024 @02:44PM (#41812192)
This is like saying, "All things being equal, I'd prefer Santa Claus bring presents on Christmas Eve than have to go shopping for my kids."

It's like well duh of course you'd prefer the impossibly unrealistic miracle.

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by SapporoChris on Friday October 11, 2024 @02:55PM (#41812312)
Of course it is impossible to live a healthy lifestyle and have healthy weight, if you ignore the 3/5ths of Americans that are not obese and the 7/8th of the global population.
Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by Teever on Friday October 11, 2024 @03:07PM (#41812465)
Are the 3/5ths of Americans who are not obese actually living a healthy lifestyle? Or are they just living a different unhealthy lifestyle?

Is a skinny homeless methhead with a great BMI healthy? Or the blue collar dude who has terrible blood pressure from chain smoking and pounding energy drinks on his way to the job site?

How many Americans who are not obese are on their way to becoming obese?

There are lots of paths to unhealthiness and overeating / eating poorly is only one of them

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by hackable_sand on Friday October 11, 2024 @03:30PM (#41812723)
True. I do not think I have not yet met a person who is completely healthy.

Maybe in passing.

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by valval on Friday October 11, 2024 @03:19PM (#41812614)
Obesity and poor metabolic health is by far the greatest predictor of an early death.
Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by Teever on Friday October 11, 2024 @05:34PM (#41813980)
Yes of course, but the point I'm making is that people who aren't obese aren't necessarily healthy.

People aren't born obese. They get that way through mistreating their body for a long period of time, and it is quite possible for them to die before they become obese to other maladies related to that mistreatment.

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by llamaimperative on Friday October 11, 2024 @02:59PM (#41812354)
Impossibly unrealistic to change zoning to disincentivize car-dependent urban design?

Impossibly unrealistic to get rid of enormous sugar production subsidies that make it insanely cheap?

Impossibly unrealistic to simply tax added sugar?

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by crooked-v on Friday October 11, 2024 @03:32PM (#41812758)
> Impossibly unrealistic to change zoning to disincentivize car-dependent urban design?

Those zoning issues are the same reason for any number of other problems, including housing prices that are supposedly the #1 concern for a huge number of voters, and yet voters in many cities have only doubled down over time on making it harder and harder to build in efficient and high-density ways. "Impossible" seems like a fair way to put it.

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by llamaimperative on Friday October 11, 2024 @04:49PM (#41813581)
Yet some cities are making progress on exactly that issue.

I haven't done the statistics on it, but I'll bet cities full of people who want zoning reform are more likely to reform than cities full of people who do not want it.

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by Schiendelman on Friday October 11, 2024 @07:41PM (#41815024)
No city has implemented anything like zoning reform. There are a handful of cities which, to great fanfare, have made tiny changes. Minneapolis has made the most impact, but it's hard to rule out correlation with falling demand for that city.
Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by llamaimperative on Saturday October 12, 2024 @12:20AM (#41816380)
Raleigh doubled its zoned density overnight.
Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by Schiendelman on Saturday October 12, 2024 @07:53AM (#41818452)
They did not. They allowed duplexes and townhouses in some places that were limited to single houses (https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/counties/wake-county...).

This change ultimately allowed something like 10% more units in the city on a 100 year horizon.

This is what I'm calling out - these changes sound big but they are nearly meaningless. Cities need periods of explosive growth to remain affordable (see Jane Jacobs, 1961 and 1970).

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by llamaimperative on Sunday October 13, 2024 @12:13PM (#41829194)
Please cite each of those 10% and 100 year numbers.

You can read the text change. It allows duplexes and ~doubled the allowed density on almost every residential zoning type.

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by Schiendelman on Sunday October 13, 2024 @04:54PM (#41831502)
What makes you think that the changes made will increase relative to baseline by more than 10% increase in housing stock over 100 years?
Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by llamaimperative on Monday October 14, 2024 @10:11AM (#41837717)
Lol the onus is not on me to rebut what appear to be numbers made up from whole cloth.
Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by Schiendelman on Monday October 14, 2024 @04:51PM (#41841857)
Kind of, but you're implying Raleigh's changes will have more impact than that. What makes you think so?
Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by llamaimperative on Monday October 14, 2024 @05:44PM (#41842341)
I said "Raleigh doubled its zoned density overnight." You said "No they did not" and "No city has implemented anything like zoning reform." Both of these are false.

You can refer to the text changes. They doubled the zoned density in nearly every residential zoning type in the city. It is a huge change, though I suppose you can claim that's not "reform" if you want. It is sufficiently reformative for my purposes of increasing urban density over time.

Changes will take time to kick in, and obviously they should take time to kick in because simply clicking a button and doubling actual built density would crater the economy. It makes no sense. The zoning change removes an artificial restriction on the natural supply/demand curve, so now supply can grow as-needed in the forms desired.

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by Schiendelman on Monday October 14, 2024 @05:57PM (#41842459)
I don't think it really does to the supply/demand curve what you think it does.

In general, when new construction occurs, it's taking low density and replacing it with more like 10X density. A very tiny amount of land gets developed at once, so you need each new development opportunity to generate as much supply as possible.

What this did was make people think gosh, that means a lot of housing! But in actuality, very few of these ever get built. Only very old housing stock ever makes sense to replace with only a doubling.

I appreciate what you're trying to say, but what I said was actually true. This won't have much impact. I can give you drips and drabs of information this way to help you understand how development works, but I can't give you an entire primer, unless you'd like to get on the Zoom and talk about it for a couple hours.

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by llamaimperative on Monday October 14, 2024 @06:54PM (#41843063)
Maybe true in an area that requires redevelopment to grow, but in Raleigh there are huge, huge swaths of totally undeveloped land that are now much more valuable even within the same zones. You do not need ultra-high density towers to create true urban density.
Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by Schiendelman on Tuesday October 15, 2024 @08:46AM (#41847996)
I think you're setting up a false premise there about towers? Not sure where that came from.

Can you show me land that is now much more valuable than before? I suspect the places you're thinking of aren't really changing on value or buildability the way you expect.

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by llamaimperative on Tuesday October 15, 2024 @09:24AM (#41848328)
> In general, when new construction occurs, it's taking low density and replacing it with more like 10X density. A very tiny amount of land gets developed at once, so you need each new development opportunity to generate as much supply as possible.

Naively, you're talking about converting a one story building into a ten story building. That == a tower.

You're skeptical that higher density zoning increases land values?

> Now, let's talk about the multi-family sector. If you thought single-family homes were hot, wait till you hear about this. Land suitable for apartment development in downtown Raleigh and Durham has seen price increases of 50-100% in the last five years alone.

> And it's not just apartments. The demand for townhomes and condos has sent land values for these types of projects through the roof, with increases of 30-40% in prime locations.

https://www.timmclarke.com/resources/are-land-values-increas...

Of course we can quibble about what amount of that appreciation is caused by zoning changes, but from first principles it is obviously the case that given the same exact plot of land, the expected value of developing 10 houses on it is much higher than the expected value of developing 1 house on it, ergo a lot that allows 10 will have a higher price than that same exact lot constrained to 1 home.

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by paulcole on Friday October 11, 2024 @04:54PM (#41813637)
All 3 seem to be going swimmingly so far!
Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by llamaimperative on Friday October 11, 2024 @04:57PM (#41813671)
Do you need an explanation of the difference between "impossible" and "challenging?"
Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by paulcole on Friday October 11, 2024 @08:29PM (#41815317)
I’ll repeat:

All 3 seem to be going swimmingly so far!

There is no material difference between impossible and challenging if the thing doesn’t actually happen.

It’s like Kramer saying he could have levels in his apartment it’s just that he doesn’t want them.

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by llamaimperative on Saturday October 12, 2024 @01:41AM (#41816714)
Hard problems are hard, and not impossible.
Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by paulcole on Saturday October 12, 2024 @11:16AM (#41819703)
Well if they never get solved are they hard or are they impossible?

What’s the difference between, “It was hard and we didn’t solve it” and “It was impossible”?

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by llamaimperative on Sunday October 13, 2024 @02:29PM (#41830308)
You are aware that no problem was solved before it was solved, right?
Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by paulcole on Sunday October 13, 2024 @05:18PM (#41831698)
Since you ignored my question, I’ll ignore yours.

You are aware you can’t tell a hard unsolved problem from an impossible unsolved problem, right?

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by llamaimperative on Monday October 14, 2024 @10:12AM (#41837727)
Well no, you often can actually. You can have positive information about the impossibility of something, for example the prospect of winning a chess game after losing your king. You don't need to play billions of games of chess to see whether it's possible.

Zoning changes happen all the time. Tax changes happen all the time. Subsidy changes happen all the time.

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by renanoliveira0 on Sunday October 13, 2024 @06:54AM (#41826904)
These are two completely different things. One thing is solving the problem for the world as a whole. That’s the ideal scenario, the one we should aim for. It might get resolved, it might not, but it will definitely take a good amount of time, maybe a very long time.

The other issue is your personal situation. If you're living in a country with intense conflict or in a war zone, you can’t just try to survive for 40 years while “waiting” for the country to make progress. You move, and that’s it.

Plus, given that people’s freedom is constantly increasing, and they have more and more options available, expecting that everyone will autonomously choose a healthy lifestyle is like waiting for Santa Claus—unless you plan to take that freedom away from them.

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by wizzwizz4 on Friday October 11, 2024 @02:46PM (#41812203)
Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by sbelskie on Friday October 11, 2024 @02:52PM (#41812281)
Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by sweeter on Friday October 11, 2024 @03:08PM (#41812482)
the UK has basically become the US by most metrics. This includes the increasing privatization of health services, transport, etc... and the excessive commodification of basic necessities like housing.

I find that saying that health initiatives don't work by vaguely gesturing at a country, is not a structurally sound argument. Its like the sentiment here is: "is the fact that we include Pizza as a vegetable in American schools part of the problem? Nooooo, that can't be it. it must be a moral issue!" and thats just one example.

The obesity problem in the US is tied directly to our relationship with highly processed (and CHEAP) food. Along with the stranglehold those companies have over state and federal institutions that allow them to directly sell these foods in schools and institutions, and heavily skirt FDA regulations via lobbying.

The US is uniquely bad when we have a ton of chemicals and ingredients in our foods that are banned in most other countries. It is largely a systemic problem and a problem that can easily be solved. Poorer people tend to eat cheap food, cheap processed food isn't well regulated and is directly tied obesity and a whole host of health problems.

Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by wizzwizz4 on Friday October 11, 2024 @03:05PM (#41812451)
The claim was about promotion, not effective promotion. (As a sibling comment points out, effective promotion is not unrealistic either. It won't happen on its own, but nothing does.)
Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by card_zero on Friday October 11, 2024 @03:14PM (#41812560)
So other countries would officially prefer the impossibly unrealistic miracle.
Re:How long til we're all on Ozempic? by ahahahahah on Friday October 11, 2024 @02:58PM (#41812349)
hahaha.

"The UK has seen its obesity rates increase faster than the US. In the UK, obesity has risen sharply since 1990, when it affected only 14% of adults. The UK is also considered one of the most overweight countries in Western Europe."

In addition, since the introduction of Change4Life, the obesity rate has simply continued to climb in the uk (see https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN03..., for example).

So yes, other countries (just like the US), have introduced programs to try to encourage healthier behaviors, and have seen similar outcomes from them.