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A comment on 1913: When Hitler, Trotsky, Tito, Freud and Stalin all lived in the same place. Parent comment

Re:1913: When Hitler, Trotsky, Tito, Freud and Stalin all li... by dragonwriter on Thursday September 12, 2024 @06:57PM (#41526507)
> Also: we're not on the cusp of WW3.

We're on the cusp in the sense that the World War is not yet and might never be recognized (because one or the other side might fall apart without a fight); OTOH, we're not "on the cusp" in that, if the conditions which would cause it to be recognized occur, we're past the point that will likely be looked at as the start date.

The Russo-Ukrainian War, and the war between various Iranian proxies and Israel, are all part of the same global conflict between an axis centered around Russia and Iran and a broader one in the West

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Re:1913: When Hitler, Trotsky, Tito, Freud and Stalin all li... by yieldcrv on Thursday September 12, 2024 @07:21PM (#41526682)
The geopolitical headlines today could have all been written in 1967

and it was far more harrowing and precarious - at least for the continuity of the US - back then

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Re:1913: When Hitler, Trotsky, Tito, Freud and Stalin all li... by roenxi on Thursday September 12, 2024 @07:42PM (#41526818)
In 1967 the only real risk to the US was a nuclear strike. In 2024 the only risk is a nuclear strike. When you say it was "more harrowing and precarious", in what sense do you mean that? The risk is about the same.
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Re:1913: When Hitler, Trotsky, Tito, Freud and Stalin all li... by anamexis on Thursday September 12, 2024 @08:54PM (#41527161)
Presumably that the risk of nuclear strike was higher
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Re:1913: When Hitler, Trotsky, Tito, Freud and Stalin all li... by dh2022 on Thursday September 12, 2024 @09:01PM (#41527194)
In 1967 US had something like 30,000 nuclear warheads deployed and USSR had 6,o00. Today both countries have around 1,500. Both countries had bombers with nuclear payload continuously up in the air. The risk was much bigger then.

[1] https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/transparency-us-nuclear-weapons-... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_nuclear_weapons_sto...

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Re:1913: When Hitler, Trotsky, Tito, Freud and Stalin all li... by roenxi on Thursday September 12, 2024 @09:15PM (#41527250)
The bulk of the risk wouldn't really scale with number of warheads though would it? I was thinking it is more of a binary. There is some number of warheads that is enough.

The experience in the Cuban Missile crisis suggests that the number deployed on submarines is probably more of a concern when it comes to miscalculation than the total. And for deliberate attacks the militaries have probably calculated that the number currently deployed is reasonable to wipe out a major power.

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Re:1913: When Hitler, Trotsky, Tito, Freud and Stalin all li... by stickfigure on Friday September 13, 2024 @01:24PM (#41533235)
The risk of an accident or otherwise unintentional initiation goes up with the number of warheads deployed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_submarine_B-59#Nuclear_...

(or of course Dr Strangelove)

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Re:1913: When Hitler, Trotsky, Tito, Freud and Stalin all li... by cm2012 on Thursday September 12, 2024 @07:28PM (#41526724)
Russia and Iran are sideshows, the upcoming conflict, if it happens, would be between China and the West.
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Re:1913: When Hitler, Trotsky, Tito, Freud and Stalin all li... by dragonwriter on Thursday September 12, 2024 @07:44PM (#41526831)
That a conflict between the West and China was the most likely has been the conventional wisdom since the fall of the USSR, but its very strange to suggest that it is more likely to occur than a conflict which is, in fact, actually already happening.
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