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Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by Animats on Sunday September 01, 2024 @03:09PM (#41419437)
This is too US-centric. Here's some data for other regions.[1] Worldwide, about 20% of new cars are electric. The EU and UK are above 20%. The US is only around 10%. China is at 40% and climbing rapidly. The advanced countries are going electric rapidly. So are countries willing to import large numbers of cars from China.

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by blcknight on Sunday September 01, 2024 @03:25PM (#41419591)
More populated cities and shorter distances make EV’s a lot easier. The only only only way they’ll take hold in the US is more networks as reliable as Tesla, integrated navigation in the cars, and fewer stupid charging apps.

Tesla is the only EV I’ve owned with zero range anxiety because it plots the trip - and is correct. My LEAF’s tiny battery and famous guess-o-meter made it a totally unknown when I needed to charge, and then had to figure out in PlugShare or ABRP where to charge with at least one backup nearby because of how unreliable other networks are. Too stressful.

Tesla is the ONLY good network. EVgo costs a fortune - 3x as much as a tesla supercharger near me! And EA is basically always broken.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by ufmace on Sunday September 01, 2024 @03:49PM (#41419782)
Thanks for the perspective. I don't own an EV, but I have taken road trips in a friend's Tesla. My impression was that the supercharger network (at least in the Northeast US) is dense and reliable enough and the route planning software good enough that road trips basically anywhere in the region are reasonably practical, though you'll be spending much more time at superchargers than you would at gas stations in an ICE car and have less ability to choose any route you like. Interesting to know that that's actually the highest level of EV practicality and many other models are substantially worse.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by klipt on Sunday September 01, 2024 @04:13PM (#41419971)
Would be great if we could use antitrust law to force Tesla to let other EVs use the supercharger network too. Would open up a lot of competition and help reduce pollution.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by lolinder on Sunday September 01, 2024 @04:20PM (#41420026)
You must have missed this news from last year?

https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/the-tesla-supercharger-netw...

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by blcknight on Sunday September 01, 2024 @04:46PM (#41420242)
It’s also a little limited. The supercharger cables are too short to reach many cars and you have to park weirdly and block other stalls. There’s also no OEM trip planner to make use of them to ensure batteries are preconditioned , you distribute load across nearby superchargers, etc.

I test drove the Ariya and I think it had a 4 menu deep manual precondition option. Its OEM charging locator (not planner) was offline and typical legacy manufacturer built-in nav garbage.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by seanmcdirmid on Monday September 02, 2024 @03:41AM (#41423414)
Tesla is building new super chargers for a world where every car isn’t a Tesla. Car makers that aren’t Tesla are also standardizing on port placement to exist in a world where Tesla provides the only reliable charging option.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by Animats on Sunday September 01, 2024 @04:30PM (#41420106)
There's an adapter shortage, so that doesn't really work yet.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by lolinder on Sunday September 01, 2024 @04:36PM (#41420154)
I don't know anything about that, but that's not really a problem for antitrust.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by cure on Sunday September 01, 2024 @04:10PM (#41419948)
> And EA is basically always broken.

This was the case a year ago, but they have really stepped up their game, at least in the Northeast. I now find the EA chargers to be (almost) always functional.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by deepsun on Sunday September 01, 2024 @04:27PM (#41420077)
I don't understand why we even need an app. Isn't the car is app already? With a reliable cable connection to the charging station. Cannot the car negotiate the payment on it's own?
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by wolpoli on Sunday September 01, 2024 @04:31PM (#41420113)
That might happen if the car makers could charge a 30 percent commissions from the EV charging companies.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by dreamcompiler on Monday September 02, 2024 @09:37AM (#41425294)
You just described how Tesla supercharging works.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by peutetre on Monday September 02, 2024 @07:43PM (#41429735)
You don't in Europe. Regulation now requires contactless payment for chargers. Even Tesla's new chargers support contactless payment with no Tesla account or app:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yflZN0dLT8s

CCS also supports plug and charge if you want to set up automatic payments via your car. Even works in North America:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BgWBPfmefE

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by foobarian on Sunday September 01, 2024 @04:29PM (#41420095)
On the newer Nissan Ariya model: at home, battery SOC says 99%, predicted range 290 miles. We go on family day trip to the beach, 30 miles later and SOC says 70% with 260 miles predicted range. I am no expert and I'm sure these systems are hard to build but we have got to be able to do better than this.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by Yizahi on Sunday September 01, 2024 @05:36PM (#41420596)
Similar situation to the phone and laptop batteries, except it is an order of magnitude harder and more expensive to compensate for crap predictions by manufacturer.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by ManuelKiessling on Sunday September 01, 2024 @05:34PM (#41420584)
It’s very late here and/or I‘m dumb, but isn’t 290 minus 30 equal to 260…?
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by meeby on Sunday September 01, 2024 @05:50PM (#41420686)
I think they meant the percentages were wildly inaccurate. 99% at 290 miles would give a 100% range of 292 miles. 260 miles should be 89% remaining, not 70%.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by magicalhippo on Monday September 02, 2024 @03:36AM (#41423383)
I have a Renault Megane E-Tech, which shares platform with the Ariya, and I've noticed the range estimation seems to be heavily biased to recent driving.

That's almost always too and from work in the city, so when I take it to the highway the estimated range drops like a brick. Especially speeds above 100 km/h (~60 mph) really drains the battery.

That said, if I enter the route in the Google Maps-based navigation, I find that it fairly accurately predicts SOC at the destination. So I tend to use that, or just do my own estimation.

Though, AFAIK the Ariya has an Amazon-based system, so not sure how that relates.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by foobarian on Tuesday September 03, 2024 @10:56AM (#41435571)
I wonder why I don't perceive a similar issue with my gas car. Two reasons come to mind:

1) Gas consumption does not have as much variance as EV. Actually there are canceling effects because gas engines are more efficient on highways, but drag is higher. As a result the amount of fuel consumed is more predictable and therefore the range is more predictable.

2) The safety net of the "I'll fill up when pointer is near empty" habit. This can be harder for EV in exceptional trips i.e. not predictable daily commute, which is exactly where the chance of being further away from fast charging is higher.

I think 2) will get better over time and as we get more used to it. And about 1), it's pretty cool that EV are so much more efficient at slower speeds - it's a real testament for the technology.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by magicalhippo on Wednesday September 04, 2024 @05:27AM (#41443606)
Yeah I do think your first point is a big factor.

I think I'd be more happy if my car split my range estimates into "city driving" and "highway driving", and provided those two different estimates side by side.

Since my car doesn't know where I'm going, without telling it through the nav system, that would be a much more useful approach.

Of course, that would also mean people would see the much lower range, so I guess it would affect sales to first-time EV buyers.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by Yizahi on Sunday September 01, 2024 @05:34PM (#41420586)
More populated cities are making EV harder, because apartments are mostly missing charging spots and only in some new building a handful of parking sport per building have AN OPTION to pay to install charger. And offices are also mostly missing charging spots too, plus remote work factor. The leaders of EV adoption are countries with rich people in personal houses with cheap (per kW) personal chargers. Or simply rich people.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by jiggawatts on Sunday September 01, 2024 @06:04PM (#41420798)
A smart government would mandate that all new apartment blocks have at a minimum the electrical infrastructure in place to support the installation of charging points.

I was recently renting an apartment and when I asked building managers about this kind of thing they just blinked at me slowly like they had just now heard of electric cars existing.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by dreamcompiler on Monday September 02, 2024 @09:34AM (#41425272)
EA is such a shitshow. Volkswagen committed two crimes against the US government: First they got caught falsifying their diesel emissions, and as penance the USG forced them to build the EA network.

Second, after VW built the EA network they allocated basically no money to maintain it. AFAIK the USG has not found a way to punish them for that. It's not clear to me that the USG is even aware this second crime was committed.

EDIT: Based on comment from @cure below, my information may need updating.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by kkfx on Monday September 02, 2024 @05:15PM (#41428889)
As an EV owner with a bit of mileage I can't agree at all, cities are the worst place to own an EV. Modern EV have at least 400km WLTP range (248 miles EPA range) and we typically have to move for much less during the day, BUT we need to charge at home, and in cities most people do not have a place to charge at home. In cities you have often tight spaces, maneuvering an EV is less comfy and an ICE in tight space, and eventual "ADAS" makes it even worse.

At least in the part of the EU I'm living public chargers are spread enough and they are rightly meant for just recharging when you are on a trip longer than the return range, issues are from their mandatory crapplications instead of just accepting a bank card, and having also an incredible price delta depending on the app/card you use (check chargemap.com/map choosing some chargers to see the prices).

The main issue is the absurdly high price of EVs HERE, because in the BRICS cost less than ICEs, the absurdly level of invasive crapware as a service, the absurd level of yearly check, actually a sw update we can do alone, prices. All this, the push toward no ownership and sucking money like a leech push people against EV because they fails to separate the child from the dirty water.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by elzbardico on Sunday September 01, 2024 @03:54PM (#41419825)
China has bet on cheap eletric generation with Coal and electric vehicles to decrease their dependence on Oil. Chinese EVs, for all practical purposes, run on Coal.

Also, let's not forget that prices of chinese EVs benefit from the massive scale economies enabled by years of subsidies and tax credits.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by onlyrealcuzzo on Sunday September 01, 2024 @03:59PM (#41419859)
Coal consumption in China peaked 2 years ago.

China is leading the world (by far) in new renewable generation.

China is the largest carbon emitter in the world, but they are also moving RAPIDLY in the right direction.

Rome wasn't built in a day.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by sgu999 on Sunday September 01, 2024 @04:06PM (#41419919)
> China is the largest carbon emitter in the world

In part because they are also the largest producer of all the shit we buy but don't account for in our carbon footprints because it's imported

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by Ferret7446 on Sunday September 01, 2024 @11:05PM (#41422286)
Sure, but their economy also depends on it. We could stop importing from them, which would certainly lower their carbon emissions, but it would also crater their economy and cause millions of deaths. Putting the blame for China's emissions on Western countries is a really weird way of shifting governmental responsibility.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by sgu999 on Monday September 02, 2024 @03:35AM (#41423379)
Shifting the blame wasn't my intention, my comment intended to be fair.

> We could stop importing from them

Not without causing millions of deaths in the west as well. We've learned the hard way how much of our medical supplies depend on these imports for instance.

Here in France comparing the country's carbon emissions to China's is a common argument for not doing anything about it.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by lolinder on Sunday September 01, 2024 @04:26PM (#41420073)
Do you have a citation for China peaking coal consumption? The sources I can find say that China is still adding coal at a rate that far outstrips the rest of the world, with a rate of new coal construction up 4x since 2019 [0].

They're also adding solar at an even higher rate [1] so maybe you meant that coal as a percentage of electrical consumption peaked two years ago?

[0] https://www.carbonbrief.org/china-responsible-for-95-of-new-...

[1] https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/china-added-more-sol...

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by onlyrealcuzzo on Sunday September 01, 2024 @04:33PM (#41420135)
As with all things China - the numbers are debated - but here's a source from the same website that there's no growth since 2022: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-contradictory-coal-data...
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by lolinder on Sunday September 01, 2024 @04:39PM (#41420190)
That's in 2022, not since 2022—the date on that is in early 2023, so it predates my linked article by a year. And even your source doesn't say "there was no growth" it says "the numbers for 2022 are confusing and contradictory".

From your article:

> The scale of the uncertainty over the true nature of China’s coal demand means it is hard to establish whether there was an overall rise or fall in the country’s CO2 emissions in 2022. This difference could have global implications for action on climate change.

> Whether the official coal data for 2022 is correct or not, the country moved further off track against its near-term targets for carbon and energy intensity.

Also, it's measuring something different—emissions in the year—while the article I linked is talking about new coal construction. New coal construction is pretty easy to measure relative to emissions, and is a leading indicator suggesting future emissions are coming.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by onlyrealcuzzo on Sunday September 01, 2024 @09:58PM (#41421986)
> New coal construction is pretty easy to measure relative to emissions, and is a leading indicator suggesting future emissions are coming.

It's not that simple.

* The power plants are running at lower capacities: https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/china-coal-plants

* Not all coal is equal. High-volatile bituminous coals have ~5% less emissions: https://gaftp.epa.gov/ap42/ch01/s01/reference/ref_77%20c01s0...

* Some of the new plants are "clean" (not actually clean, but produce less emissions): https://globalenergyprize.org/en/2024/03/29/china-remains-wo...

* You can build newer, more efficient coal power plants (~45%) which slightly reduce the amount of coal you need to burn at older, less efficient coal power plants (~33%): https://www.google.com/search?q=how+efficient+are+newer+coal...

* ~5% of the new additions replaced retirements.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by lolinder on Monday September 02, 2024 @07:48AM (#41424629)
Even factoring all that in, building that much new coal is a leading indicator for emissions. It just might be less emissions than building that much new coal two decades ago would have been.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by Yizahi on Sunday September 01, 2024 @05:42PM (#41420632)
This is correct by misses a lot of nuance. E.g. China has an enormous renewable generation, yes. Only it is mostly in the uninhabited deserts of north west, while the bulk of population lives close to the coast. And the their power delivery is both suboptimal and deliberately sabotaged for political reason. I don't remember full explanation (I think Economics Explained did a video about it) but it is much better for some regional head of a high population province near the coast to fire coal plants IN his own province, than to get renewable energy from some far away province. And other issues, mostly economical, meaning coal will be a major factor in China and all other countries for long time.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by maxglute on Sunday September 01, 2024 @06:27PM (#41420939)
>misses a lot of nuance

OP is acknowledging the direction / trend. The nuance is whatever central gov incentivizes. Local gov have been (and still) incentivized to use provincial power because it's in their control, it enables them to hit other good for promotion metrics without worrying about politics/dependencies. Coal is simply reliable and local gov don't even like depending on grid of adjacent provinces, especially when renewable generation has been fluctuating with extreme climate last few years. But if central gov starts hinting promotions is going to be based on enhancing cross border power, bureaucrats will start indexing on that. Economics of utility scale renewables projecting to cheaper than coal without considering externalities. Right now still in phase of building out enough renewables so grid is resilient. West-East Electricity Transfer Project is a multi decade project spanning back to the 10th 5 year plan in the 00s, once there's enough resiliency, central gov will push local gov to play better with state grid.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by seanmcdirmid on Monday September 02, 2024 @03:46AM (#41423434)
UHV also isn’t quite built out enough yet, they have some capacity to move energy from west to east, just not nearly enough. Instead, they are focusing on more nuclear in the east, and can maybe rebalance more industrial production out west if water isn’t a concern.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by fpoling on Sunday September 01, 2024 @04:10PM (#41419950)
Electrical car using electricity from a modern coal plant generates less CO2 than a gasoline car.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by seanmcdirmid on Monday September 02, 2024 @03:44AM (#41423425)
China is the largest builder of renewable energy, in the form of solar and wind as well as huge hydro projects and nuclear. So it’s not just relying on coal. A city like Lanzhou that has lots of access to renewables (since that capacity is mostly in west/mid-west China) is actually being cleaned up pretty quickly since it is easier to shutdown coal plants.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by Terr_ on Monday September 02, 2024 @04:01AM (#41423492)
> China is the largest builder of renewable energy

That means nothing if you don't scale it per capita or per total generation capacity. One big country could have the most renewables and the most non-renewables at the very same time.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by seanmcdirmid on Monday September 02, 2024 @02:25PM (#41427692)
Yes and? On a per capita basis, they are misers compared to the USA in terms of fossil fuel usage. China is progressing nicely into the future with their investments, if you want to worry about some developing country that’s extreme polluted, look at India instead.
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by SubiculumCode on Sunday September 01, 2024 @03:24PM (#41419582)
I think it will change, but the fact is, the U.S.A. is so darn big, and so EV range is super important to Americans.

This is also seen when comparing how much Amerians drive compared to Europeans. Americans drive about twice as many miles per capita annually than EU citizens [1], which is probably related to more distant commutes in the US.. [2], e.g. average commute in 2014 was 8.79 km in the U.S., but 5.03 km Germany, and 1.68 km in France. But also, The USA is big, and we are more likely to travel by car and further than those in other countries.

This is all to say, that adoption in America will go up, but only as electric cars improve their range.

[1] https://frontiergroup.org/resources/fact-file-americans-driv... [2] https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Transport/Co...

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by kwhitefoot on Sunday September 01, 2024 @03:48PM (#41419774)
If your commute is only 9 km each way then every EV now sold will do a a whole week or perhaps two of commuting plus shopping, etc., on a single charge.

The 16 kmiles/year quoted by the Frontier Group is not really all that much. It's an average of only 70 km per day. I know several people personally who commute daily further than that here in Norway and I see plenty of people doing it in EVs.

Again most current EVs can do at least four days of that on a single charge. Certainly my ancient 2015 Tesla S70D can and most newer cars have more range.

The mean distance probably obscures a distribution which includes a minority that drives far more than the average, it would be interesting to know the median distance too.

I've just returned to Norway from France in my Tesla. It was 2 700 km (almost 1 700 miles) and charging was not a problem.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by SubiculumCode on Sunday September 01, 2024 @04:05PM (#41419914)
I agree re median and mean. I suppose the other reason for the U.S. against adoption is their love for large vehicles..
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by dreamcompiler on Monday September 02, 2024 @09:51AM (#41425384)
> It was 2 700 km (almost 1 700 miles) and charging was not a problem.

1700 miles is two trips across Texas (which can also be done in a Tesla without a problem). I live in the US and the distances here compared to Europe still occasionally shock me.

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by breerbgoat on Sunday September 01, 2024 @03:41PM (#41419723)
The countries that are willing to import Chinese EVs might not be aware of the increasing number of Chinese EVs bursting into flames, either due to the Chinese government attempting to hide the incidents, or those countries choosing to ignore consumer safety.

1.) China’s Electric Explosions: 7 EVs catch fire each day https://e-vehicleinfo.com/global/chinas-electric-explosions-...

2.) Electric car bursts into flames after hitting sharp paving stone in China https://uk.news.yahoo.com/electric-car-bursts-flames-hitting...

3.) 21,000 Fires a Year! China’s Often Self-Igniting EVs & EBs Become Ubiquitous ‘Moving Bombs’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMKpCiDomgM

4.) BYD electric car catches fire at Hong Kong charging station, expert says short circuit could be the cause https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/society/article/3249963/...

5.) BYD Showroom Burns to the Ground After One Electric Car Bursts Into Flames https://www.autoevolution.com/news/byd-showroom-burns-to-the...

6.) BYD electric car bursts into flame on highway in China https://www.newsflare.com/video/546083/byd-electric-car-burs...

Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by ZeroGravitas on Sunday September 01, 2024 @05:45PM (#41420660)
Re:The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought by mikae1 on Monday September 02, 2024 @04:26PM (#41428527)
> The US is only around 10%.

That's what you get when gas is dirt cheap, I guess.