If that's the case, it is only a matter of time before we all can afford our own cruise missiles.

I see your point.

The way I see it there's a great advantage to having big very expensive weapons, such as only a few countries can afford them and they are so expensive and destructive that leaders aren't so quick to use them.

That acts as a deterrent to big actions, nuclear nation Vs nuclear nation in direct conflict World War scale confrontations.

As the entire post WWII Cold War era and recent post 9/11 decades have shown, however, is that big expensive weapons that destroy entire cities in a single package have done little to stop endless low level warring. Small conflicts continue none the less, the US invasions of Iraq, Afghanistan, the Russian actions in Syria, the Crimean and Ukraine invasions, etc. (many many other "et cetera's").

A Chinese expansion to take Tawain would be of a similar "small" scale from the PoV of "does this warrent a nuclear response".

It would be a naval battle in many ways and the best deterrance, perhaps, is an over supply of "cheap" semi autonomous self guiding over the horizon evasive ship killer missiles.

The knowledge that any ships that engage could be rapidly removed from the board is the very thing that might see such usage not come to pass.

I've been trying to find it for years but about 20 years ago when that guy from New Zealand was trying to build his own cruise missile for under $20k I found a DoD paper that had a line I'll paraphrase that stood out to me: 'the DIY cruise missile will become the AK-47 of the 21st century'

> If that's the case, it is only a matter of time before we all can afford our own cruise missiles.

What do we do when the Sinaloa cartel gets the capability to attack LA? They're already heavily involved in preventing the election of officials opposed to them.[1]

[1] https://apnews.com/article/mexico-drug-cartels-violence-elec...

They have such an ability right now. They could easily get a fleet of quarter scale R/C aircraft with autonomous control ala pixhawk, load them up with explosives and fuel, and send them on a one way trip to the big city. Maybe $5-10k ea. The first attack would likely be very successful, because nobody is ready for it. Expect effectiveness to degrade over time as air defense systems and fighters are deployed.

I wouldn't expect them to do this, though, because anyone contemplating such a thing would realize the response would be immediate and decisive. Cartels are after all business organizations, and you can't do business if you're spending all your time dodging hellfire missiles.

Yep. A 9-11 Afgan style response would be much easier when the perps are literally next door.

This may create a market opportunity for "personal Iron Dome" like products. Perhaps it’s not too late to apply for the next YC opportunity?

Bay Area gated communities, with Google and Facebook shuttle buses, and anti cruise missile defence systems built by YC funded "peace" startups.

Be right back, quickly buying up some realestate...

You'll want a defense against aerosols too.

I mean, all the homeowners can just shelter-in-place in their Cybertruck that's required to be parked in the drive by the HOA rules, and use it's HEPA filters, right?

I don't really think there's a market for personal Iron Dome products. If nothing else the interceptors are inherently seriously restricted items that simply wouldn't be legal under any conditions in a suburban environment. The high power amateur rocket community bumps into this all the time--most people are not in a position that there is any possible way for them to comply with the hazmat rules regarding their rocket motors (you do *not* want one of those lighting off in a house fire!) They buy their motors at the launch site from those who are able to comply with the hazmat rules.

I have an even hazier understanding of the hazmat rules on possession and transport of explosives. When they blow down a building around here bringing in the explosives is something of an event and not done until the last minute because they're not allowed to store them on site.

Not to mention that explosives + motor falls deep into NFA stuff if it's legal at all. Or look at Mythbusters. All the explosions on the show? Nope, permits to do most of that simply do not exist. Behind the scenes it was actually being done by the local bomb squad.

Now, Iron *Beam* is another matter. I'm not aware of any applicable rules.