Compatibility with the native Win32 app ecosystem is the primary source of Windows' monopoly on desktop computing. Microsoft products rarely succeed outside of that (like any other company). For them to actively try to kill that off is truly insane IMHO.
Not me of course...
I actually remember trying to decide between eclipse and VB6. What whim made me end up choosing the latter now completely escapes me. I think it was because it didn't have those weird {} braces. Ah, C#, the irony.
The trouble with all these 'cheap cause you use it all the time' tools is that to start with you don't want to use them all the time. So they're relatively very expensive.
For example I was just re-learning programming to prove a point to my boss that the internal IT program sucked.
My bet is most of these developers currently pay for Visual Studio professional versions anyway. So, not much different for them. Seems like the new restrictions are just for hobby development - they'll be forced to make Metro-style apps, which is what they (MS) wants.