Re:AI Is Smoke and Mirrors
by lambdaba on Monday April 22, 2024 @12:38PM
(#40116017)
My opinion shifts every other day it seems, recently, Roon, the "famous" anon X account that works at OpenAI, and presumably has access to some unreleased info, said, in response to "are we plateauing soon", "not even close". I honestly don't know what to think.
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Re:AI Is Smoke and Mirrors
by HarHarVeryFunny on Monday April 22, 2024 @04:17PM
(#40119551)
OTOH Altman has said that next release will be about same advance on GTP-4 as that was over GPT-3. Dario Amodei has said something roughly equivalent - to expect solid gains this year but no reality bender.
I think the real potential gains come when they start extending the architecture, but as long as it's just scaling up and different training/inference regimes, then it seems it'll be more of the same rather than game changer.
Given how connected the whole SF/AI scene appears to be (alchohol + drugs too?), it's hard to imagine a company the size of OpenAI not leaking. If there had been any amazing discoveries there, I think there'd at least be rumors (and not just "they seem to have something called Q* going on").
I feel like for LLM's at least, we've not seen a lot of progress on the high end for a year or so. GPT4-Turbo is a little better than GPT4, but mainly only for things that can benefit from huge contexts.
Re:AI Is Smoke and Mirrors
by whimsicalism on Monday April 22, 2024 @12:49PM
(#40116155)
We have seen progress, but mostly price progress.
Yes, and also not-always-bumping-into-capacity-limits (availability) progress.
Of course somebody working for OpenAI would say that.
Re:AI Is Smoke and Mirrors
by whimsicalism on Monday April 22, 2024 @12:41PM
(#40116050)
I know his real identity and I doubt there is some key insider info there although he does work at OAI