OTOH Altman has said that next release will be about same advance on GTP-4 as that was over GPT-3. Dario Amodei has said something roughly equivalent - to expect solid gains this year but no reality bender.
I think the real potential gains come when they start extending the architecture, but as long as it's just scaling up and different training/inference regimes, then it seems it'll be more of the same rather than game changer.
Given how connected the whole SF/AI scene appears to be (alchohol + drugs too?), it's hard to imagine a company the size of OpenAI not leaking. If there had been any amazing discoveries there, I think there'd at least be rumors (and not just "they seem to have something called Q* going on").
I think the real potential gains come when they start extending the architecture, but as long as it's just scaling up and different training/inference regimes, then it seems it'll be more of the same rather than game changer.
Given how connected the whole SF/AI scene appears to be (alchohol + drugs too?), it's hard to imagine a company the size of OpenAI not leaking. If there had been any amazing discoveries there, I think there'd at least be rumors (and not just "they seem to have something called Q* going on").