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Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by JKCalhoun on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @08:05AM (#38445260)
Has me thinking about the Drake (RIP) equation, thinking about life in terms of probabilities.

Seems like the chances of finding intelligent life on a planet vs. plain ol' plants and sponges life must be markedly smaller. Humans have existed on this planet for what fraction of the whole of life on this planet?

Of course, that's from one data set — and one in fact where the jury's still out as to our longevity as a species.

Sci-fi haș me thinking that pretty much any planet with life also has intelligent life but that doesn't ring true when you look at the numbers.

Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by kebaman on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @08:17AM (#38445366)
Also, if the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs and most life 65M years ago never happened, I don't think homo sapiens would exist.
Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by tomrod on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @08:29AM (#38445479)
No way to actually know the counterfactual.

Life would likely be different though; I'd be curious what filled primate's niche before the asteroid.

Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by NoMoreNicksLeft on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @10:16AM (#38446580)
I think we can know this counterfactual. On bad science fiction shows like Sliders, they visit "parallel universes" where just one or two things are changed from our world.

In one episode, they finally believe themselves to be "home". Until, late in the episode, one of them notices that the Golden Gate Bridge is blue. Supposedly, nothing else is even slightly different than the one they are from.

Well, if we examine that premise, it's pretty dumb. At some point in the 1930s when it was built, someone had to source the paint for the damned thing. The plant that made the paint, even if it was the same one, used different pigments. Mined somewhere other than where they found the raw materials for whatever color of orange the bridge really is. Each of these slight changes, 70 years before the protagonists showed up, would have caused even bigger changes. Trucks taking different routes, causing different traffic patterns, different delays. Suddenly, people are being conceived 5 minutes earlier, or 5 minutes later (or not at all). It's doubtful that anyone born after whenever the divergence occurred (whenever that was) is genetically identical. Doubtful that anyone born even half a generation later has the same birth name.

Pretty safe to say if the dinosaurs weren't godbombed, there wouldn't be humans. The number of magical convergences is too high, even for a shorter period of time.

Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by JKCalhoun on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @11:38AM (#38447652)
I don't follow your argument.

An alternate idea is that mammals, due to some survivability superiority, were the inevitable outcome and that god-bombing only accelerated us to that. The butterfly effect is sci-fi.

If you want wild speculation, imagine there was no accelerant and lizard-people eventually ruled the planet — perhaps in the way we're headed, they would end up god-bombing themselves ... and then finally the mammals get their (long over) due.

Popular opinion seems to be that the cockroaches are waiting their turn.

Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by vinceguidry on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @12:04PM (#38447988)
What allowed mammals to take over from the reptiles / birds in the first place wasn't some inherent superiority, it was the dying out of all the ginormous hunter-killers, both animal and plant, that allowed for 'gentler' animals (mammals) and plants (grasses) to emerge. Mammals were there, grasses were there, with all the advantages that their unique physiology gave them. They were just too slow and killable in the dinosaur era to do anything more than just stick to tiny enclaves where the big dinos couldn't get them.

After the KT event that killed the dinosaurs, mammals sought to fill the niches left by dinosaurs. They grew big and huge. The few dinos that did survive, sat at the top of the food chain, enormous flightless birds. Sharks took over in the water because all the reptiles that were there were gone. It took mammals 40 million years after the bomb dropped to slowly spread over and gently outcompete the big bads. Collectively.

But it couldn't have happened in the first place without Giant Meteor making the choice for us. The Cretaceous was just that gnarly, and it would have only gotten gnarlier. The world found a local maximum, and then that maximum got flattened. The only thing that could have ended it, did.

Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by NoMoreNicksLeft on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @11:50AM (#38447804)
Sure, mammals. They already existed.

But just because some mammal or another evolves into a sapient doesn't make that sapient "human" in the way we're using the word in this context.

The path from the little critters that existed at the time of the dinosaurs to H. sapiens today is very specific, and we know of at least 2 or 3 bottleneck events in our recent evolutionary history. The idea that our species could have arisen anyway is beyond absurd. The universe does not work in this fashion.

Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by JKCalhoun on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @01:10PM (#38448889)
> The idea that our species could have arisen anyway is beyond absurd. The universe does not work in this fashion.

Guess that's where I disagree with you.

Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by NoMoreNicksLeft on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @03:58PM (#38451212)
Ok, so it's your theory that mammals could continue to evolve in a completely different direction, with different evolutionary pressures for say 45 or 55 million years, but then all of the sudden veer off in a wild direction where they follow pretty much the same exact path that early human ancestors followed...

Such that, at the end of it all, we have something that either or both looks like an anatomically modern human and would (hypothetically) be able to have fertile offspring with a H. sapiens human?

Because, I have to tell you, that's pretty batshit.

Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by tomrod on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @05:55PM (#38452692)
My claim isn't that humans arising is deterministic, it's that niches got filled.

With rain forests, something would have filled the primate niche. That something might well have become human-like.

While humans faced genetic bottlenecks, I'm not sure that affected all primates the same.

Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by JKCalhoun on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @08:53AM (#38445667)
That's an interesting proposal.
Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by fullstackchris on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @08:20AM (#38445396)
It's also extremely interesting to think about how much the statistics or thought process will change if we just find _one single additional planet with life_ - then what kind of life, etc.

Somehow finding a second planet with life seems statistically infinitely more significant - the whole thing right now is a data experiment, and for now earth (as far as we know) is an anomoly - a single "positive" data point across thousands and thousands of "negative" data points.

Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by onlyrealcuzzo on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @10:01AM (#38446445)
> across thousands and thousands of "negative" data points.

Can we even definitely say there is not life anywhere on Mars or Mercury, nor has there ever been?

Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by NoMoreNicksLeft on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @10:17AM (#38446589)
Second planet, or second star?
Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by cmrdporcupine on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @10:21AM (#38446628)
Hell, we'd be "lucky" to find anything that's multicellular, or even similar to our eukaryotes. "Life" on this planet has been (and still is) primarily simple prokaryotes, with horizontal gene transfer, no sex, very small size, very small genome, low energy production, etc.

First couple billion years was all that, and they still are the vast majority of organisms. And eukaryotes seem to have evolved (only once!) pretty much by chance and not by necessity.

Chances are the galaxy is teaming with that kind of thing, but what we get excited about as "life" (stuff like us) is exceedingly rare, and there's no reason to assume that next-level "complex" life will exist in a form we even recognize, if it exists at all.

Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by AlecSchueler on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @10:25AM (#38446665)
We're talking abut any life here though, right? Not just intelligent life. There was life on earth along time before humans arrived and surely will be for a while after we're gone.

Totally get that post industrial life is theoretically easier to detect via radio signals etc but the article didn't seem to specify anything so particular.

Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by credit_guy on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @01:37PM (#38449417)
People keep thinking in terms of Drake's equation, and I for one am puzzled. Don't people realize that under any imaginable and non-imaginable scenarios, life outside our galaxy is irrelevant for us? There's no way we can exchange a single "Hello" with a neighbor in Andromeda, and that's the closest galaxy out there.

I don't personally deny that there could be life in other galaxies, but equally, there could be angels dancing on the tip of a hairpin. Maybe there are, but neither can affect my life in any way.

Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by lijok on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @04:24PM (#38451515)
> Maybe there are, but neither can affect my life in any way.

Materialistic thinking. If confirmation of life beyond earth would not have a psyche-altering effect on you, I would ask if you were human?

Besides that, confirmation of extra-terrestrial life would have immense effect on most things here on Earth, material or not.

Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by generic92034 on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @03:42PM (#38451007)
Andromeda does not seem to be such a good example for your point, though: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andromeda%E2%80%93Milky_Way_co...

We would just need to wait for "some time". ;)

Re:The Hunt for Life in Alpha Centauri – Jstor Daily by cryptoz on Tuesday November 28, 2023 @05:15PM (#38452147)
The Drake equation specifically only deals with the Milky Way Galaxy and has no comment about any other galaxies.