It’s human psychology. Imagine you guess the birthday of everyone you meet. Your odds of being right are the same no matter whether you always say “January 1” or if you pick a date that feels right for the person (assuming there is no astrological or other magical sensing).

But getting Jan 1 right would feel like an inevitable event, like you’re testing statistics and, yep, they work. Getting a custom date right would feel like you made a smart choice. Even if you know it’s just the same statistics.

At least I expect most people would feel that, or at least as many as enjoy gambling in games of chance.

I have the strongest urge to be pedantic and point out that birthdates are not normally distributed. But I get your point.

They are indeed not normally distributed, but did you mean that they are not uniformly distributed?

That's what happens when you give into the pedantry gremlin. He comes for you too.

Uno reverse card right there.

The chance that he will "win" in one guess in the future is 100%. Not so when you choose random words.

I mean, the difference between these two is a mathematical technicality. For all practical purposes it’s the same thing.

The chances that he wins on any given day are the same, but not that he will win within x days. Right?

Not really.

There are legal (good) unusual starting words that it’s a good bet are not in the set of Wordle answers.