To be frank, the value proposition of those investments was never what the companies claimed they did but how much money they could bring in before going bust. And of course some of those companies were also useful by fostering acceptance of ideas those investors benefit from: for example, a big part of the "blockchain" and "smart contracts" narrative was privatization (or "democratization") of government functions (e.g. managing land deeds, educational certifications and other claims).

Not to mention that a big part of investing in start ups is just ape jpegs with extra steps (i.e. "greater fool" theory).

He came very close to getting away with it all. If the investments had panned out a little differently he would have been able to stay solvent and no one would have really noticed the regulation breaking.

That kind of assumes a change in behavior and that any number of other things wouldn't eventually trip things up.

Exactly. Evading disaster doesn't make someone like this reconsider their decision making process and act smarter next time, it shows them that they're a goddamn genius who can do no wrong.

Right, and assumes he didn't abandon the Kelly Criterion for the mentality of "keep playing double-or-nothing even when you win":

>>Bankman-Fried’s error was an extreme hubris that led him to bite bullets he never should have bitten. He famously told economist Tyler Cowen in a podcast interview that if faced with a game where “51 percent [of the time], you double the Earth out somewhere else; 49 percent, it all disappears,” he’d keep playing the game continually.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23500014/effective-altrui...

Upvoted for usage of the term "wagyu bullshit". It conveys a world of meaning in two words :)

> Well, what's the difference between an unhinged, drug-addled loony and an eccentric visionary genius?

One big factor is who your parents are. SBF coming from an upper-class background, that tilts the scales towards eccentric genius. After all, we know that the children of these families are all extremely special.

> NO! Poor people are crazy, Jack. I'm eccentric.

-- Howard Payne (Dennis Hopper), Speed, 1994