Exactly. Evading disaster doesn't make someone like this reconsider their decision making process and act smarter next time, it shows them that they're a goddamn genius who can do no wrong.

Right, and assumes he didn't abandon the Kelly Criterion for the mentality of "keep playing double-or-nothing even when you win":

>>Bankman-Fried’s error was an extreme hubris that led him to bite bullets he never should have bitten. He famously told economist Tyler Cowen in a podcast interview that if faced with a game where “51 percent [of the time], you double the Earth out somewhere else; 49 percent, it all disappears,” he’d keep playing the game continually.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23500014/effective-altrui...