In fact, I would go even further and predict that all cause mortality will be under baseline for countries most affected by climate change in the next 10 years vs 10 years prior, and life expectancy will go up. I absolutely believe that climate change is happening, I think tech and other improvements will outpace the damage it does. I'm very serious about betting on this.

You know, I'm semi interested in firming up this bet, only because I'll be fucking THRILLED to lose.

Make it a hundred, though, so I can defend it to my dependants better and you're on.

(I realize that even if I win, I lose, but whatever, I'm more interested in talking with someone who has significant hope, enough to put money on the line.)

It's a good bet, because either you're right or it won't matter.

The World Meteorological Organization estimates that in the 50 years from 1970 to 2019, deaths from climate dropped to one-third[0]. That's not one-third the rate; that's one-third of the absolute number of deaths, even as the world population more than doubled in that time period and atmospheric CO2 went from ~325ppm to ~410ppm.

In my opinion, this reduction in deaths is mostly due to the increasing ability of the developing world to better master their environment, enabled by technological advances powered largely by cheap energy from fossil fuels. If you have alternative explanations, I'm happy to hear it. But as the evidence stands, it would be more delusional to think climate change will cause rampant mass deaths.

[0]: https://library.wmo.int/viewer/57564/download?file=1267_Atla...

All it takes is one wet bulb event in a city near the equator. The deaths will be among those that can’t access climate control powered by cheap fossil fuels.

And I'd happily bet that even with extra wet bulb events, death rate will be lower and life expectancy higher at the equator. And I would assign a .0001% chance of a single wet bulb event killing millions of people.

I’ll take that bet, at 1000:1 odds; that should still be profitable for you. How do you want to handle it?

Not worth my time at those odds to set it up

It is fully possible that we have accumulated better technology while still pushing the climate to exponentially more dangerous states.

Yeah, we got a Pinker Thinker here. Dangerous temperature and humidity combined with failing infrastructure will kill millions rapidly, while two simultaneous crop failures in different parts of the world will throw the global food supply into shambles and kill even more people, slowly.