The essay suggests "Any regulation of industrial robots stems from existing industrial regulation, which has been evolving for many decades" & that regulations need to be clear about other robots as well. Interestingly enough, if we applied existing regulations to Tesla's Autopilot as we would to a driver who racked up as many fatalities and crashes (736 crashes and 17 deaths in the U.S. since 2019 [0]), they'd be behind bars long ago, let alone never able to drive again.
0 - https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a44185487/report-tesla-aut...
Aat this stage I agree that we are dealing with "blind machines", with no more "intention" than a steam engine.
However, the central argument in Schneier's piece seems to be that robots inherit the intentionality of their creators.
If I create a machine that kills someone, my "intentionality" is fair game to be dissected in court, and ultimately I may be found guilty as if I had killed with my own hands.
That is the kind of high bar I think society expects, and is certainly one that should scare the crap out of robotics developers (aside: I have been one) to ensure the highest standards of engineering discipline and industrial ethics.
It's definitely fair to consider the 'intentionality' of the idiot too.
It's still on leadership if they choose to hire idiots who get hurt. The solution is: don't hire idiots.
If you look historically at manufacturing and the origins of signage and safety training, you'll find them mandated by the government (i.e. OSHA, etc.) because those things weren't always voluntarily provided by the employer. Upton Sinclair opened our eyes to this 100 years ago.
When you run a shop with five experienced people, if each of them has a 1-in-a-million chance of getting seriously injured on any given day, each year you have a 1-in-548 chance of a serious injury. Any sane person would call this risk acceptable.
If you run a shop with 5000 people of equal skill level to those five above, you're talking a couple of deaths or permanent disability injuries per year, just from the numbers. Any rational person would say hey, that's the same risk, why are you mad? But society isn't rational and if any legal entity no matter how large kills or maims a couple of workers a day, there's an outcry and executive heads will roll. So yeah, they try to do better. At this point maybe 'hire smarter people' works?
Now imagine you're running a multinational company with 500,000 people. If you operate like that original shop you'll see a couple of hundred deaths in your first year and then get sued into oblivion or lynched, and remember those were skilled experts. There aren't 500,000 skilled experts available for hire, and most of these jobs are ahem less skilled anyway, so you're hiring people with much higher rates of personal injury. To operate at this level you need to do stuff that seems dumb to the uninitiated, like relying on layers of subcontracting companies for everything while implementing byzantine and ever-shifting safety regulations that each subcontractor must commit to following. Sure, it costs an order of magnitude more, but it's worth it for the severability.
And the accidents that I know of, are where the security mechanism have been tampered with. A proper designed and certified german machine is hard to get injured by if followed protocol (and the reasons are past accidents and suing the manufactor).
The weapons industry (and its lobby organization, the NRA) would like to have a word with you...
So not all that weak, really.
Sure (and thanks for pointing this out) but this isn’t a philosophical piece, it was written for the Atlantic, and he’s being careless with his language.
The second one seems fair: he is describing the result of what the Tesla Autopilot is doing. I do not think that he means to say that the Autopilot is understanding that there is a red light but then it makes a consciuous decision to itgnore it. He is just saying that the robot is malfunctioning, as it should be clear from context:
"Today’s AI-related robot deaths are no different from the robot accidents of the past. Those industrial robots malfunctioned, and human operators trying to assist were killed in unexpected ways. [..] Malfunctioning Teslas on Autopilot have deviated from their advertised capabilities by misreading road markings, suddenly veering into other cars or trees, crashing into well-marked service vehicles, or ignoring red lights, stop signs, and crosswalks".
I do not think there is a more neutral way of describing the events.Even more likely, it’s a manufacturing robot, with no vision at all except maybe for the pieces it is manipulating. It almost certainly has a line on the floor, or a railing even, to keep people out of its way.
In short, it has zero obstacle avoidance. I’d be interested in counterexamples.
> The second one seems fair: he is describing the result of what the Tesla Autopilot is doing. I do not think that he means to say that the Autopilot is understanding that there is a red light but then it makes a consciuous decision to itgnore it. He is just saying that the robot is malfunctioning, as it should be clear from context: "Today’s AI-related robot deaths are no different from the robot accidents of the past. Those industrial robots malfunctioned, and human operators trying to assist were killed in unexpected ways. [..] Malfunctioning Teslas on Autopilot have deviated from their advertised capabilities by misreading road markings, suddenly veering into other cars or trees, crashing into well-marked service vehicles, or ignoring red lights, stop signs, and crosswalks".
He describes Teslas as “no different” from non-intentional machines of the past, and then describes them with “intentional” language.
>I do not think there is a more neutral way of describing the events.
How about, “Industrial accidents happen through lack of human foresight and carelessness. The same is currently true of ‘AI’ products like Autopilot. But the time will come, and probably soon, where AI alignment and intentionality will be part of the conversation. We should prepare for that starting now.”
Not as catchy as “Robot rampage!” But more accurate and, as you say, neutral.
I really really don’t think this is an article about convincing robots to be nice to us (AKA alignment); I think it’s an article about how we need stricter regulations for software that controls physical machines. Doesn’t that sound like a good idea?
I’m not arguing against the underlying point, I’m just disagreeing with how it’s presented.
Reasoning is actually pretty good now. An AI can compose a sonnet on electron degeneracy pressure no-problem but ask it where the red ball is - and really inspect its localization of that red ball and it’s way off. Orders of magnitude of imprecision.
A modern AI can reason through the trolley problem and millions of variants. But it can’t see the person on the track with very high confidence, or be sure that the trolley is going to hit the person or not.
AI systems are quite good at perception in a traditional sense (e.g. determining a red ball is in the sensor receptive field), but once actual cognition about how the red ball relates to the world around it becomes important, current approaches are limited.
I would argue that the first wave of perception is solved much more completely than the ability to reason about complex interactions of objects grounded in the physical world.
Disclaimer: I am a robotics research scientist
A red ball detector that operates at 60hz with a 99.9% accuracy will make an error on average once every 11.5 seconds. I think the issue is not so much the interactions of objects and the world but rather we're just wildly off-base regarding the base performance needed.
Ignoring can mean failing to notice something, as well as noticing but disregarding it. Words can often have multiple similar complementary meanings. I don't think the usage here is incorrect, or even misleading.
You don’t think it’s important to draw a distinction between whether a robot was deliberately programmed to do something malicious as opposed to a bug which caused an oversight? Come on.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/ignor...
> to intentionally not listen or give attention to:
> to give no attention to something or someone:
Two definitions - one with intention, one without
> words mean things.
Yes, but they often mean multiple things. Very few dictionary entries only have a single definition for a word. You can't use "words mean things" to claim that "this word means only what I say it means, regardless of the other accepted uses it already has".
> You don’t think it’s important to draw a distinction between whether a robot was deliberately programmed to do something malicious as opposed to a bug which caused an oversight?
I do think there are times when it is very important to do that.
I just don't think that "ignore" is the right word to make that distinction, and isn't a distinction the authors were trying to make at that particular time, because if they were they would probably have used another word.
...at least, that's how I read it. It seemed clear to me. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/ignor...
> Definition: to give no attention to something or someone:
> Example 1: They ignored our warnings.
> Example 2: The mayor ignored the hecklers and went on with her speech.
> This seems inflammatory and highly misleading. I could be wrong, but I highly doubt it: the robot didn't "determine" anything. It had assembly instructions to follow, and it followed them. The worker got in the way and was struck.
I was prepared to argue with you, but upon reading the article, I agree that the description you quote makes a huge category error.
I think it's believable that we'll soon get AIs that are advanced enough they can do agent modeling and that some subgoal-maximizer accident could happen where the robots determines "the most efficient way to accomplish <objective> is to take out that human so he doesn't turn me off", in which case the article's poetic description would be correct.
Except the quoted paragraph is talking about an industrial accident in 1981, so the whole "eliminate the threat" presentation is obviously absurd.
This seems inflammatory and highly misleading. I could be wrong, but I highly doubt it: the robot didn't "determine" anything. It had assembly instructions to follow, and it followed them. The worker got in the way and was struck.
Schneier falls into this same error, saying Tesla Autopilot sometimes "ignor[es] red lights, stop signs, and crosswalks." Tesla isn't perfect, but I'm pretty confident there's no code in Autopilot that says, "yeah, I see that crosswalk, but Elon's in a hurry, so let's goooo!" -- okay, maybe in Elon mode. But not in general. So no, Autopilot doesn't "ignore" those items: it misses them.
Assigning intention to robots at this point is pretty much equivalent to assigning intention to a clock because the hands go around. We have a long way to go before we can/should assign intentionality to "robots" this way. Of course, at the rate things are going, "a long way" could happen in the next few years. But it's not happening now. I'll happily consider counter-examples.