> Do talented individuals just not want the job?

Correct. It's a job where you get very little done, you're constantly cutting ribbons and going to boring galas to fundraise, your life is put under a microscope, and the other side will investigate you and your family and maybe even try to throw you in jail.

Hard pass. No sane person wants the job.

Democrats had quite a few viable candidates last election cycle.

Trump gets over a third of the GOP vote by just lying and so opposition to him as hard as you can't call him out on his lies which makes defeating him impossible, you can't beat the make believe land where everything is possible.

Biden will likely be the nominee as typically the incumbent gets first dibs per tradition.

Technically he needs to win the primary but at minimum the average person needs to be worse off in 2024 than they were in 2020.

Tha might be the case due to inflation and GOP court decisions. But then that leaves the bigger hurdle, who is best to beat Trump the candidate who already did or someone else.

It doesn't matter what the real answer is it matters what people feel.

Honestly, would you? The pure background someone needs to have to not fall subject to media outings is hard to achieve. Any folks with something to hide become instant blackmail targets of both the public and private sector.

One almost needs to destroy their life to get the job, and even then the chances seem to be so low that you'd more likely end up with a destroyed life and not a political office.

A viable candidate in the general election who can also win primaries is a bit of a unicorn.

Old people vote. They vote for old people. Young people don't vote. Fully half of Bidens primary votes were from 65+, that was enough for him to win.

Discoverability is a difficult problem. I know my local representatives names. But, I don't know the representatives of adjoining counties. I'm aware of loud national figures. But, to become a national figure generally involves working through the pipeline of local to regional to national authority. Some people might have concern about just voting for someone without experience. Or, how is person without political experience 431 different from person without experience 563 ?

Good societies should not rely on individuals but rather on the strength of the institutions. I think USA passes that bar rather easily.

I don't like either of Trump and Biden. Yet, Trump was very good achieving peace in Middle east, Israel, toning down war rhetoric in Korea and brought China to center as the potential troublemaker of future. He also set the stage for eventual Afghan withdrawal. Not to mention the vaccines were developed under his administration. Now some people will point out that it is not really Trump and all that, but that is the point. Even if American people elect a complete buffoon like Trump, lot of good things happened at critical time as they should have.

Biden, who is clearly mentally unfit for the job, might end up as one of the greatest presidents despite the corruption and scandals. Under his leadership COVID is over, NATO expanded, Russia collapsed, China is seen as enemy by everyone, Europe-US ties are re-energized, India showed more alignment with West, AI revolution has kicked off. Some people will point out that lot of these things are pure luck or someone else's achievements, but that is the point. Institutions are so strong that you can elect a vegetable and the country runs pretty well.

> Biden, who is clearly mentally unfit for the job

It's not actually clear to me that Biden is mentally unfit for the job.

Certainly there has been some decline; watching videos of Biden in debates in 2012 side by side with 2020, the difference is obvious. But it's not clear that this has been in areas where it's actually necessary. A President doesn't (necessarily) need to think quickly in the moment; they need to be able to listen to the correct advisors, make the correct connections, be willing to apply pressure to foreign leaders, etc. It's not clear that there's any particular role of President that Biden is failing at due to his mental state.

All of this is yet another point in favor of your broader one. You say:

> Institutions are so strong that you can elect a vegetable and the country runs pretty well.

I say, institutions are so strong that you can't tell if you elected a vegetable. Biden is by no means the first in such a situation; Reagan notoriously was showing signs of Alzheimers by the end of his presidency, and the day-to-day was run by Nancy with the country none the wiser.

What part of Middle East did Trump achieve peace in exactly?

The US military has the right idea with the "up or out" policy. Without it, high ranking positions would get clogged up with a bunch of officers who sit cozy far too long, become old and stagnate. Similarly, there aren't good, young candidates because most of the candidate pool is all old politicians who've been at it forever.

> It's insane to me that neither side can come up with a viable candidate that is not an (or nearly an) octogenarian.

Obama was 47 when first elected in 2008.

It's entirely because of the winner take all voting system. It innevitably leads to a two party system in which very few people are able to vote for their candidate of choice. Implementing any kind of ranked choice system would essentially fix this, but it wont happen.