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Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by jacquesm on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @01:40PM (#36866240)
Like you would any other thing that is outside your circle of influence: kick it out of your circle of concern because you aren't realistically speaking geared up to move yourself into a position where you do have influence. If you don't you end up with the global equivalent of a burn-out and it might start to affect your ability to make decisions about things that you do have influence over because it is paralyzing to be confronted with such overwhelming looking possible catastrophe in your life time.

Treat it like the weather prediction for next month, if it happens it happens and then you can react. If it starts to show up in the weather prediction for tomorrow it is time to factor it into your present day decisions.

Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by throwaway290 on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @03:21PM (#36867933)
As always I disagree... This is the attitude that "people in charge will do something for you, and if they don't I guess we'll cope" that is undemocratic and breeds passivity.

if you are concerned about something it does not mean you must be non stop stressed or forever abandon your life for single cause. You can be concerned and act in constructive ways (lead by example, talk about it, raise the issue, vote, etc), making strategic sacrifices but also living life. In fact you will probably be more satisfied this way than if you just felt you can't do anything and tried to not think about the white elephant. And it is the only way things change...

Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by jacquesm on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @03:39PM (#36868192)
No, it is not that attitude at all. It is simply recognizing that there are some things that you will not be able to influence directly.

The only time when you have a fractional input on this is at the voting booth and even there the chance is that climate change will not be expressly put on the ballot but you get a mixture of components that you will be able to locally influence. But that sort of mechanism isn't well suited to deal with global problems. Global problems require global coordination and for everybody to play ball. For a variety of reasons (some good, some bad) this isn't going to happen. Climate change is fact. The consequences of climate change are already visible all over the globe. And yet: as long as there is money to be made by industry, wars rage all over the place and various possible checkpoints are passed no single individual that is wondering what they can personally do about it is going to make a shred of a difference by worrying about it to the point that it affects their day-to-day affairs.

Let me be blunt: the time to tackle climate change for real was when we first became aware of it. But all of the above inertia pretty much guaranteed and continues to guarantee that we will not act on a scale where it does matter until it is much, much too late. This year many people will die as a result of climate change. They have no voice but they are affected in the most drastic way possible. Next year it will be more and so on. Until the developed part of the world, and in particular the people in power in the developed part of the world is going to be personally and inescapably affected you're along for the ride.

If this particular thing concerns you and you are not non-stop stressed that only means that you haven't understood it yet.

Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by mistermann on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @04:12PM (#36868657)
Well let's hope that either:

- your "fact" that democracy is the only way out of this is actually and adequately true

- one or more persons doesn't assume your wild guess is necessarily true and launches a Plan B

It's funny: backup plans are considered good for IT Enterprises, but not for the planet they are located on. Seems illogical, but it is what it is.

Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by rob74 on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @05:25PM (#36869836)
10 years ago: climate change? What climate change?

Today: oh yeah, climate change is real, but we should have done something about it 20 years ago, now it's too late...

Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by jacquesm on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @05:53PM (#36870113)
Indeed. And the annoying thing is that it's the people that didn't believe in climate change 20 years ago that made that a reality. There was a HN comment about this long ago that summed up those stages nicely.

It's frustrating to me on a personal level. Back in the early '00s it was pretty clear to me that we were headed for a massive problem. I did what I could to cut all kinds of ways in which we - as a family - were contributing. But in the end it had zero effect because the real agents of change weren't budging, not even a micro meter. So here we are today. The house I live in is more than energy neutral (my plans have been accelerated a bit on account of Putin's madness). But I make myself no illusion that it will matter, it's just a token bit of resistance, a tiny drop of green in an ocean of black.

Things I wonder about (but no longer worry about): will my children make it through this crisis that we have created? Will our political institutions somehow survive? How big a population - assuming we survive in some numbers - will there be left and will there still be enough structure standing that we don't have to start all over from scratch?

If you really start to think about the possible consequences of climate change you won't be having many good nights of sleep going forward. And there isn't a thing that you personally are going to be able to do about it, except maybe as a figleaf for your personal mental health.

Very, very frustrating.

Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by tremon on Friday July 28, 2023 @08:25AM (#36905833)
Make that 50 years ago. There's plenty of reports from the 70s that show that certain industries were well aware of the damage being done.
Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by throwaway290 on Wednesday July 26, 2023 @02:19AM (#36873736)
You are concerned, and you are a person in developed part of the world, so looks like it's not that bad eh? As long as you don't recuse yourself from the problem, of course

> If this particular thing concerns you and you are not non-stop stressed that only means that you haven't understood it yet.

That's a mentally unhealthy attitude. Whether something is of importance to you or not should not determine whether you are stressed over it, you can approach it on a balanced constructive way.

Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by godelski on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @10:19PM (#36872361)
They're not really suggesting a defeatist attitude so much as encouraging you to allocate your resources. You only have so much time, energy, and knowledge. To be blunt, if you're passionate about something then you need to invest the time to become knowledgeable in it.

If these two variables are not aligned then you're actively adding noise to the system and I'd argue that you are making the system less democratic. The world is fucking complex and the devil is always in the details. You may notice that the loudest voices are not the most knowledgeable voices. They will never seek details unless it is to critique their opponents and go no further. The loudest voices are not those seeking truth, they are seeking competition. Seeking truth is a cooperative game, where the main goals are aligned and there is no singular winner. It is positive sum. But the loudest voices are playing games to win, often creating competition where there may not have been before. Usually they claim a game is zero sum, when often it is not.

The point of democracy is to distribute power, and not necessarily uniformly. Our modern industrial and economic worlds runs on specialization. At the very core. This is because these processes are so complex that no individual can obtain mastery over even a significant part of the system. There are no physicists who are experts in all of physics, no chemists who have mastered both organic and physical, no climate scientists who understand all of climate, no engineers who master electrical, mechanical, aero, and civil, there are no master full stack engineers. Do you really think political affairs are any different?

For some reason we pretend we can be experts in even larger domains where experts struggle to obtain expertise in a narrow niche. If systems are chaotic, where small differences are critical, then overconfidence has disastrous consequences.

Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by pyinstallwoes on Wednesday July 26, 2023 @08:51AM (#36876814)
It's good to talk about things but it's not good to parrot things you can't understand.
Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by throwaway290 on Thursday July 27, 2023 @02:23AM (#36889663)
No one "understands" it fully but it doesn't mean no one should talk about it. People raise the noise about climate change not because they have magic superhuman ability to see exact future (no one has) but because with what they know from various sciences it looks like things are headed in the bad direction.
Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by hunter-gatherer on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @03:25PM (#36868005)
Man... this is the most fatalist comment I've read in a while but I suspect your prescription to the problem is the correct one.
Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by jacquesm on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @04:17PM (#36868731)
I'm sorry I don't have anything better on this. There is this fantastic interview of Ray Anderson, the late CEO of 'Interface' (modular carpets) where he describes vividly the kind of damage that industry is wreaking on the planet and what they are trying to do about it and it's depressing that for all that power and insight he managed to do preciously little:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzOwP0phUis

At that level you can make some change that moves the needle. At the low-on-the-totempole level you're not going to be able to do much of anything without dedicating your life to it. Greta Thunberg comes to mind, though I'm not even sure if she is effective though maybe she'll inspire the next generation. Anything else is a token feel good thing that will not actually make a difference.

If you look at COVID and our collective response and realize the magnitude of that challenge versus climate change then the only valid conclusion is that we're in for a very rough ride, just how rough is the open question, possibly rougher than I can imagine hopefully less so.

Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by godelski on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @10:05PM (#36872288)
Which the irony here is that I think a lot of the rough ride is due to people caring too much. Most of the fighting is due to non-experts having high confidence in their understanding of the highly complex phenomena fighting with similar people with just different misunderstandings. This fighting just adds additional noise to the system and results in it being even more difficult to formulate effective solutions.

It's kinda an odd characteristic that passion for a subject doesn't strongly correlate with the desire to become more knowledgeable in that subject. It's definitely there for all those that do become experts, but there's a large number of experts with high passion too. I suspect that it is partially due to our desire of wanting to know everything and believing that lack of knowledge is a blemish. To me this feels odd, it is like being upset you bought a puzzle that wasn't already assembled, a videogame that wasn't already beaten, or a book that wasn't already read.

Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by jacquesm on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @10:14PM (#36872336)
One of my kids observed that knowing all the stuff he learns in school doesn't seem to make him any happier, but does wonders for seeing how fucked up everything is. It would be nice if I found a way to show him that knowing lots of stuff can help in positive ways as well but for now he has me cornered.
Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by godelski on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @10:36PM (#36872476)
Sounds like a smart kid. I'm not sure if the world is fucked up or we just are misinterpreting it. If I can sympathize with fucked up characters in books and movies, maybe it just means I don't know enough about those people/things that I consider evil or fucked up. There's a lot of variables at play, many hidden, creating a fundamentally stochastic reality. A friend told me a saying once, and I don't think he realized how much it would impact my life.

> The harder I work, the luckier I get.

I definitely went through an existential crisis where I found that the world was dominated by noise (with complexity being just one form). But what I found meaningful from this simple saying is that if life is composed of stochastic events, I better be ready to seize upon the opportunities when and if they emerge.

Plus, I've always enjoyed learning. Not for power or any actual gain. But the same way one finds enjoyment in solving a puzzle or playing any game. Isn't that enough? I just see that the noise and complexity I can see just indicates what level of the game I'm on. Games wouldn't be fun if they didn't get more challenging as you progressed :)

I don't know if this helps. Maybe this is that random event to seize upon or maybe it is just more noise. But that's the world I guess, and there's a certain beauty to that.

Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by jacquesm on Wednesday July 26, 2023 @12:06AM (#36872966)
Food for thought, thank you very much. We seem to have a lot in common when it comes to learning for learning's sake.
Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by omniglottal on Wednesday July 26, 2023 @04:53PM (#36884869)
Truly, though, if you were to honestly treat it like the weather, it would determine your housing/infrastructure with year-round effects. The weather for my region doesn't demand A-frames to support massive amounts snow - if one of our contractors put up a house in North Dakota in June while only considering the near-term weather, the flat roof would collapse in the long term. Have fun with your purchase of a snowplow because tomorrow's weather calls for snow. I'd advise that one make decisions only for the time they are willing to address their effects. If you don't consider 20 years out, leave the decision-making about 20-year-goals to those who do, and both support and comply with their choice when they enforce things like EVs, agricultural reform, and other environmentally supportive/regenerative actions. Otherwise your default (non-compliance with and distrust of the "weathermen") is a decision to effectively subvert the efforts of those who do care and are informed. Your pronouncement here is effectively proselytizing nihilism. Such cultural disease is probably better kept to yourself.