Here you can see the excess death rate if Europe

https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1632003510274347010

Here the vaccination rate

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1196071/covid-19-vaccina...

Big red splotch over Russia, and data includes 2022-2023... maybe there's also some other factor inducing excess death in Russians?

The upper estimates are that Russia has suffered 50k KIA in the war which is a lot but in the grand scheme of things won’t show up much in excess deaths.

> maybe there's also some other factor inducing excess death in Russians?

It’s just that buying a fake vaccination was(still is?) a thing. I don’t know the extent of this, but you could just bribe a doctor to issue a vaccination certificate and throw the vaccine in the thrash. The whole affair was very disappointing.

Yes, there is [1]. I remember vividly this one cop that quit his job of so many years over a vaccine mandate. He was invited on TV, and was all proud and righteous of his great deed. He died of COVID. His name was Robert LeMay [2].

I wonder how many deaths could have been avoided were it not for vaccine skepticism.

[1] https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2022/3/17/22979105/covid...

[2] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/trooper-co...

Yes, it's thoroughly documented that increasing vaccination rates decreases mortality rates

That would be a negative correlation. The map seems to indicate a positive correlation overall, negative correlation only if you ignore Africa and half of South America.

(Eyeballing it side-by-side with the vaccination map here: https://fortune.com/2021/06/30/covid-vaccines-global-vaccina... )

Wealthy countries have way more old people, and way more vaccines. COVID is still more dangerous to elderly vaccinated people than to unvaccinated teenagers.

You can sometimes even see this effect in one country, if all the old people are vaccinated and none of the young people are, you'll still probably get more COVID deaths per old person. If you just look at mortality by vaccination status you'll see lots more COVID deaths in the vaccinated cohort, but that's because the vaccinated cohort is just old.

Why do you immediately jump to one conclusion as to explain this?

Probably because while it's a simple observation, it's not an intuitive one, so a lot of us had to have it pointed out recently. It's the nature of the math, not anything that has to do with covid or can be sensibly argued with.

Sure it’s something to take into your model, but I find the just so framing weirdly pressing in these types of threads.

And if you ignore east Europe and north europe.

East has low vaccination rates and high excess mortality, north has high vaccination rate and low excess deaths.

Africa and South America could be different effects. I don't know how thoroughly they do, can or want to track excess deaths.

Meaningless statement unless you correct at the very least also for demographics and infection rates.

Completely opposite. Western Europe was highly vaccinated low mortality in map. Eastern Europe low vaccination high mortality