That would be a negative correlation. The map seems to indicate a positive correlation overall, negative correlation only if you ignore Africa and half of South America.

(Eyeballing it side-by-side with the vaccination map here: https://fortune.com/2021/06/30/covid-vaccines-global-vaccina... )

Wealthy countries have way more old people, and way more vaccines. COVID is still more dangerous to elderly vaccinated people than to unvaccinated teenagers.

You can sometimes even see this effect in one country, if all the old people are vaccinated and none of the young people are, you'll still probably get more COVID deaths per old person. If you just look at mortality by vaccination status you'll see lots more COVID deaths in the vaccinated cohort, but that's because the vaccinated cohort is just old.

Why do you immediately jump to one conclusion as to explain this?

Probably because while it's a simple observation, it's not an intuitive one, so a lot of us had to have it pointed out recently. It's the nature of the math, not anything that has to do with covid or can be sensibly argued with.

Sure it’s something to take into your model, but I find the just so framing weirdly pressing in these types of threads.

And if you ignore east Europe and north europe.

East has low vaccination rates and high excess mortality, north has high vaccination rate and low excess deaths.

Africa and South America could be different effects. I don't know how thoroughly they do, can or want to track excess deaths.