Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre-Covid forecasts

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by roywiggins on Saturday May 27, 2023 @04:12PM (#36097809)

Wealthy countries have way more old people, and way more vaccines. COVID is still more dangerous to elderly vaccinated people than to unvaccinated teenagers.

You can sometimes even see this effect in one country, if all the old people are vaccinated and none of the young people are, you'll still probably get more COVID deaths per old person. If you just look at mortality by vaccination status you'll see lots more COVID deaths in the vaccinated cohort, but that's because the vaccinated cohort is just old.

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Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by nwienert on Saturday May 27, 2023 @04:24PM (#36097954)

Why do you immediately jump to one conclusion as to explain this?

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Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by pessimizer on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:18PM (#36098415)

Probably because while it's a simple observation, it's not an intuitive one, so a lot of us had to have it pointed out recently. It's the nature of the math, not anything that has to do with covid or can be sensibly argued with.

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Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by nwienert on Saturday May 27, 2023 @06:41PM (#36099132)

Sure it’s something to take into your model, but I find the just so framing weirdly pressing in these types of threads.

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