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Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by actionablefiber on Thursday May 18, 2023 @05:39PM (#35994468)
> As prices for city apartments increase dramatically, people lose interest in living in those cities.

I would argue that the prices reflect at least an incredibly persistent demand to live in those cities.

Just for different reasons than before. For instance, since the pandemic many cities have invested heavily in bike infrastructure and pedestrianization. E-bikes have become extremely popular. And as the post-COVID reopening has progressed, people have been organizing local hobbyist meetups, many of them having acquired those hobbies during the depths of the pandemic.

There is a huge lifestyle appeal to living in cities, and it will not go away anytime soon. Cities need to recognize that both the massive increase in residential demand and the massive plunge in commercial demand are incredible opportunities to differentiate themselves by converting their dead-after-6pm business districts into thriving, walkable mixed-use hubs.

Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by funnymony on Thursday May 18, 2023 @05:56PM (#35994664)
Mega yacht costs bazilions.

Yes, lot of people would not reject idea of having it, but at the same time actual demand (i.e. actual number of people who would think price is worth it, is quite lower compared to spagetti which is much cheaper but has many more buyers)

All in all. high price does not necessarily mean huge demand.

Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by fnordpiglet on Thursday May 18, 2023 @05:57PM (#35994687)
Great! Then we don’t have to fill the city with offices and we can have places for humans instead of employees.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by CydeWeys on Thursday May 18, 2023 @09:40PM (#35996763)
Right, well, see, the problem is we already did the former instead of the latter, and it costs billions of dollars to reverse that.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by fnordpiglet on Thursday May 18, 2023 @09:58PM (#35996882)
Ok - well, residential in Manhattan is $150/square foot. Commercial $85. So… seems worth it?

And billions of redevelopment investment? GDP and employment!

Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by throwaway2037 on Thursday May 18, 2023 @10:06PM (#35996940)
Where did you find those prices? NYC is so insanely diverse about living/office, I find it hard to quote something here. Average or median is mostly meaningless.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by jazzyjackson on Friday May 19, 2023 @12:08AM (#35997621)
internet commenters are allowed to spitball, obviously a 800 sq ft 1 bdrm can go from anywhere between a quarter mil to 2 mil depending on the neighborhood and the view, OP's point is that converting to residential is a net positive for the real estate owner.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by fnordpiglet on Friday May 19, 2023 @09:42AM (#36001858)
A few real estate trade websites I quickly googled. The $85 for commercial was “top tier” Manhattan commercial office space (the other tiers ranged to over half off IIRC) and the residential was a general average of inventory in 2022. Certainly for my dissertation I would have cleaner references, but I controlled a bit on the supposition by picking P90 vs avg to give the other side the statistical advantage.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by ghaff on Thursday May 18, 2023 @08:30PM (#35996298)
I think we'll have to see what the demand for living in big/dense cities looks like in light of at least somewhat reduced demand for living there because of employment. Certainly, there's some demand--especially among younger people in the college-educated demographic.

But it's less obvious what tradeoffs people make in general to the degree that employment isn't part of the equation. I certainly never lived in a city when my company was located well outside.

Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by bilbo0s on Thursday May 18, 2023 @09:28PM (#35996679)
Just, Devil’s Advocate.

But the whole reason we’re even having the discussion is because of the evidence that more people are remote working. So I’m assuming we’re talking about people who might have to go to their office at max two or three days a week in the extreme cases? Not sure how that will create enough of a market drain to make NYC, Boston, or San Fran living affordable?

I think the suggestion to reclaim business districts is the only rational way forward with any kind of chance of lowering prices. There just don’t seem to be enough people willing to live outside the city to bring down prices. If anything, everything points to market demand increasing pricewise.

Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by ghaff on Friday May 19, 2023 @08:41AM (#36001189)
2-3 days/week isn't daily but still qualifies as pretty frequent. From first-hand experience, I still don't want more than an hour commute. Of course, I don't need to live right in the city for that but, especially in the absence of a good commuter rail system (which those specific cities have to at least some degree), you can't move that far out.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by xapata on Thursday May 18, 2023 @09:49PM (#35996822)
Depends what "in a city" means. Some people might say I live in the 'burbs, but my postal address still has the city's name in it.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by throwaway2037 on Thursday May 18, 2023 @10:05PM (#35996931)
What city? It is probably not very dense.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by bcrosby95 on Thursday May 18, 2023 @11:20PM (#35997337)
I don't know if it's the city he's talking about, but by landmass, about half of San Francisco is the burbs.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by valleyer on Thursday May 18, 2023 @11:47PM (#35997522)
I'm sincerely curious, and not disagreeing with you: what definition of suburban are you using, and which parts of San Francisco?
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by bcrosby95 on Friday May 19, 2023 @12:43AM (#35997841)
Areas with lots of single family homes where you're more likely to drive to go somewhere than not. Much of sunset, much of richmond, twin peaks, bayview/hunters point, lots of the places around 280 between 101 and 1.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by jquery on Friday May 19, 2023 @01:01AM (#35997960)
Oh how I wish the suburbs I grew up in could have been as diverse and interesting as those SF "suburbs".
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by xapata on Friday May 19, 2023 @10:10AM (#36002169)
Thus my point about how ambiguous "in the city" is.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by jquery on Friday May 19, 2023 @12:56AM (#35997929)
Not the person you were asking, but to me, "suburban" is not defined by density, but by how walkable an area is. Even relatively low density neighborhoods can be urban under this definition as long as residential isn't zoned far away from commercial districts and everything is within a few minutes of walking or an easy bus ride. Suburban is when having a car provides an enormous QoL boost, but isn't strictly necessary. And rural is when a car is absolutely required to survive.

These are fairly car centric definitions. But considering the car enabled the suburb in the first place, I don't think it's necessarily wrong to use it as the metric.

Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by emodendroket on Friday May 19, 2023 @01:14AM (#35998037)
> But considering the car enabled the suburb in the first place, I don't think it's necessarily wrong to use it as the metric.

The first suburbs were a result of trains.

Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by xapata on Friday May 19, 2023 @11:45AM (#36003284)
But I think the modern suburbs (in the USA) were more of a "white flight" phenomenon, enabled by cheaper construction methods and perhaps a confluence of a few other post-war trends/policies.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by emodendroket on Friday May 19, 2023 @12:29PM (#36003784)
White flight swelled the population of suburbs but they were already substantial. I think it would be a misleading picture if you just choose one point in a continuous process and start from there.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by xapata on Friday May 19, 2023 @07:35PM (#36008000)
We don't need to create the universe to bake an apple pie from scratch. I agree that a history of the suburbs might begin before WWII, but the general concept of needing to start at the beginning is a slippery slope. I'd say nearly all histories must pick an arbitrary start, mid-stream.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by emodendroket on Friday May 19, 2023 @10:57PM (#36008976)
In that case I recommend the commuter train, which created inner-ring suburbs which still exist. Not exactly ancient history anyway.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by jquery on Friday May 19, 2023 @05:24PM (#36007028)
Interesting, TIL. I still think modern suburbs are defined by their relationship to cars, not trains.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by emodendroket on Friday May 19, 2023 @10:58PM (#36008985)
I think there is still, even now, a difference between these older, inner-ring suburbs with many people commuting to work by train (and generally smaller plots and the like) and newer outer-ring suburbs or exurbs (or just rings around newer cities) which are more car-focused from the start.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by jquery on Wednesday May 31, 2023 @09:45PM (#36146748)
Technical "car" is short for "carriage" and trains have carriages.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by baq on Friday May 19, 2023 @02:46AM (#35998576)
Suburban is where it’s unreasonable to walk to school, the doctor or a convenience store.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by rwmj on Friday May 19, 2023 @04:11AM (#35999155)
Only in the US.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by throwaway2037 on Tuesday May 23, 2023 @10:26AM (#36044816)
Wait, are you saying:

    Suburban is where it’s _reasonable_ to walk to school, the doctor or a convenience store.
If yes, then where?

Or are you scoffing at US suburbs?

Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by xapata on Friday May 19, 2023 @10:11AM (#36002193)
Depends which part of the city.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by chrismcb on Thursday May 18, 2023 @11:27PM (#35997393)
When talking about "living in the city" one generally didn't talk about the postal address, but rather the density.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by emodendroket on Friday May 19, 2023 @01:14AM (#35998031)
Oh. Well in that case the vast majority of Americans live in a metro area so I guess they do like the city.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by emodendroket on Friday May 19, 2023 @01:13AM (#35998027)
It's too crowded, nobody wants to go there anymore.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by ramraj07 on Friday May 19, 2023 @01:53AM (#35998276)
I mean at some point do People stop and think, “maybe not everyone thinks like me?”

Some people like crowds. Crowds are fun. Parties are fun. Food is fun. Community is fun. Or not. It’s great we have freedom to choose.

Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by emodendroket on Friday May 19, 2023 @02:05AM (#35998338)
Sometimes I wonder, and then I look and see that people vastly underreport how dense/urban the areas they live in are and I feel that maybe many of the people claiming to feel so different are not being sincere.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by ramraj07 on Friday May 19, 2023 @02:53AM (#35998622)
Sometimes I wonder, people say they don’t like crowds but are still not living in the wilderness and I feel that maybe many of the people claiming to feel so different are not being sincere.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by emodendroket on Friday May 19, 2023 @03:00AM (#35998668)
If you conceive of living in a city as only being in the middle of Manhattan or Shinjuku or wherever then yes I guess what you're saying makes sense, not everyone wants that.
Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by onion2k on Friday May 19, 2023 @04:02AM (#35999063)
I would argue that the prices reflect at least an incredibly persistent demand to live in those cities.

Decreasing demand for an asset that has a fixed cost to the supplier (mortgage payments) pushes up prices just as much as increasing demand.

Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by mountainb on Friday May 19, 2023 @06:27AM (#35999903)
A lot of that demand is for the house/apartment as an investment vehicle or for the idle rich for a party pad. Alternatively, it is a place for people directly or indirectly on welfare of some kind to be funneled to. Those two uses have become increasingly more prominent in US cities. You have to be addled in some way to think these cities are for middle class people, which is why many of them have seen historically massive waves of middle class outmigration in recent years.

Is an American city for you? Are you a( indigent; b( a literal aristocrat or rich enough to be one; or c( a "financial domination" enjoyer who desires to give everything they earn to some combination of landlords and governments when you are not giving all your time to your boss? If you answered yes to any of the above, an American city is for you. If you are a working stiff, the city doesn't want you anyway.

Re:NYC Skyscrapers Sit Vacant, Exposing Risk City Never Pred... by actionablefiber on Friday May 19, 2023 @07:16AM (#36000267)
This take does not square in the slightest with my actual experience in the DC area. I make a middle class income, pay a fairly modest rent, and have an active social life and tons of hobbies that are enabled by the trappings of city living - density of educated people, easy mobility on a bike, a wealth of pleasant public spaces.