All true! It's too easy to focus on the downsides, but there are significant upsides as this comment points out. There's an excellent discussion by Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan here [1]; he talks about China vis a vis the US with respect the geographic, demographic, and economic advantages/disadvantages. Worth a watch in this context.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS4Vw6cuW4M

FYI, Peter is a bit of a sensationalist (he’s been predicting China will collapse within 10 years since 2005).

So very true, but that does not change the geographical, economic, and demographic factors he speaks about.

> is surround by allies

The US doesn't have allies but a bunch of vassal states that it's milking. The alignment of these allies depend on the particular circumstances of the situation.

It's ridiculous to consider Canada or Mexico (or if we extend this farther, the EU and Japan) "vassal states". All of these countries participate in the US Capitalist regime willingly because they get rich too.

By your standard, do any of the considered "major alternative powers" (China or Russia) have allies?

Canada and Mexico aren't vassal states.

Why didn't they then sanction USA when they invaded Iraq or Afganistan? Should not such blatant breaking of international law result in breaking all economic ties until the responsible the politicians, their funders and soldiers involved are punished?

Even Russia and China didn't sanction the US. Does that make them vassals too?

Your comment isn't attached to the history of the situation.

Very accurate. The CIA is actively involved in the interference of their 'allies' governments.

Japan didn't break from US in this news article, it received permission to do so, likely so that it can remain in a defensible position against China.

While this is all true, "cashing in" on any of those advantages is not something that can be done peacefully, so perhaps a gloomy outlook is warranted.

I don't understand? The US can disrupt food/oil/financial markets/innovation more than any other planet on earth. All of these can be flexed peacefully

Yeah, but the popular narrative now is that China is the real super power because they have a strong autocratic leader and aren't bogged down by democracy, and don't have to deal with other people's uneducated opinions.

Not that they have a mountain of shadow debt built upon the biggest housing bubble the world has ever seen (by far) and an absolute demographic time bomb about to blow up their future...

> and aren't bogged down by democracy, and don't have to deal with other people's uneducated opinions.

well, looking back at the Iraq WMD invasion - were US bogged down by democracy?

Very likely; US public opinion puts massive constraints on what's considered acceptable troop losses and deliberate infliction of civilian casualties. Given how China's treated the Uyghurs, I suspect a Chinese invasion of Iraq would've looked... different.

Before the war, a solid majority (66%) favored using military force to overthrow Saddam Hussein. Once the war started, a similarly large fraction of the American people thought it was the right decision. Public opinion didn't shift into the negative until quite a bit later, a while after Abu Ghraib.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/03/14/a-look-back-...

Disruption of financial markets is not a precision weapon, and it frequently backfires. Currency wars aligning with multipolar powers makes them even more disruptive. Once the US defense of the dollar turns from theoretical to reality, it necessitates violence. You can say "the USD has all this power as a reserve currency because of US military power projection," and it may be true, but once other powers start to align and actively compete with the dollar as the reserve currency, the US needs to actively respond. And that means making good on their threats, not just projecting them. Thus, global financial instability leads to violence.

And the US military is having a recruitment issue. Not to mention new recruits tend not to be up to fitness standards. The two wars at once standard is questionable at best.

>more than any other planet on earth

Take a look at the space around you. How many of the items you see were made in the US?

And? Access to food and energy is significantly more important that new consumer goods

Modern food and energy rely upon countless items manufactured in China. John Deere would not be able to continue making the tractors they currently make without Chinese components. Same goes for everything from oil tankers to highway pavers. Even the logistics side would become difficult without being able to replace cell phones and computers.

There are no planets on earth

It all depends on the willingness to extract that oil. Alternative energy has its merits, but there is a wing of the environmentalists that have convinced a segment of the population that "keep it in the ground" is a viable short term strategy. If this transition to green energy is not extended to more like 100 or 150 years, we are screwed.