LoL - profits are because they're geniuses - losses are because other people are dumb.

That's speculation 101.

This isn't even speculation, it's hope-driven gambling.

These lessons will be quickly forgotten at the next bull run, whenever that will be.

How well do those "this boom is different!" books sell? Maybe I should start writing one now, just to have it ready....

Let it write by ChatGPT, takes less of your time.

I’ve tried to explain it the same way to my friend who is dabbling in Cyrpto. I think he even changed a 401k allocation to something Crypto-ish.

He likes gambling too and I try to tell him it’s the same.

Sounds like SVB.

I think a lot of people would agree with that statement. FED is responsible for a lot of profits, both in the equity market and definitely in the crypto asset market.

Taleb and Srinivasan in the same thread… that’s one to avoid

This argument format - "if X is responsible for a decrease in Y, then not X is responsible for any increase in Y" - is plainly false and silly in any case it is applied, including this one.

Isn't it obvious? If the fire was responsible for burning down the house, then the fire must have also built it.

Feels close to the theory behind homeopathy. If something can trigger some symptom in a healthy person, then the same something can revert it in a sick person. They just remove any trace of it from the medicine to increase the effect.

English isn't my first language either, and I know how confusing it can be, so let me help here. Here is the quote from the post: "If crypto people feel that the losses are because of Fed's actions, then they should also agree that the profits are because of Fed's actions". As we know, Fed's actions have changed: from providing "cheap" or almost free money (rate was something like 0.08%) to much more expensive ~4.5% now. It wouldn't be a huge leap of reason to assume that at least some of the impressive growth of crypto was driven by insanely low interest rates. But that's just my opinion, feel free to keep comparing monetary policy to homeopathy.

I understand the point, and obviously interest rates influence pretty much everything and anything. Stocks, tech salaries, housing prices, infrastructure projects, unemployment etc, they are all affected by central banks.

But that's not all, otherwise they'd perfectly align with interest rates, and stagflation would've been impossible, just as whatever it is that we have now.

If you look closely, it's the idea that "if X caused Y, it must have also caused !Y" that I compared to homeopathy, not the idea that monetary policy exists.

No one is claiming it is a tautology for all X and Y, it just happens to be true in this particular case.