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Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by firecall on Friday February 24, 2023 @07:35PM (#34932360)
All very good points!

We've had wage stagnation for ~15 years. I've long wondered what it is about our job market that keeps wages down whilst company profits continue to grow. Perhaps an unspoken collusion around wages, or maybe lack of salary growth in government jobs that in turn pushes the private sector.

Lack of competition and choices is another issue, as is Australia's dispersion of cities. It's not straight forward for someone in Adelaide to take a job in Sydney that pays more. Workforce mobility certainly pays a part.

When I lived in the UK, I took it for granted that you could commute to another major economic City for work, especially in the South.

Because of wage stagnation, I see a major debt crises looming with BNPL and its old friend the credit card.

It's a house of cards. Taking on more BNPL debt that is serviced with credit-cards is going to become a huge problem for Australians.

I see a lot of people in my community that appear to be doing OK, but with mortgages that gone up over $1000 a month.

People have little savings and live month to month, spending everything they have.

Changing lifestyle and spending patterns doesnt come easily to people, and I see it as the slow boiling frog problem. They'll maintain their current lifestyles because they dont realise the spending and credit problem they have.

Where is the extra money coming from to service their mortgages?

Well, it's credit cards and BNPL. Which will slowly grow until they are in trouble. Maxed out limits on multiple BNPL schemes backed by multiple maxed out credit cards is going to create crippling debt levels.

It may take 18 months to manifest, but I'm sure it will.

I already know that many people in my community carry credit card debt month-to-month and I cant see how this is going to improve.

It's not just those with Mortgages that are in trouble. Renters will be in serious trouble too as all those investment property mortgages have gone up too. Which means huge increases in weekly rents are starting to appear. The Australian subreddits are filled with irate renters.

Just getting my thoughts down, and anything could happen I guess! :-)

Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by chrishare on Friday February 24, 2023 @07:47PM (#34932448)
Indeed. Basic finance sure would be a great addition to the high-school curriculum.
Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by chii on Friday February 24, 2023 @09:55PM (#34933355)
> It's not straight forward for someone in Adelaide to take a job in Sydney that pays more

why isn't it straight forward? There's nothing stopping someone from interviewing (let's say, remotely) and accept a job in sydney while in adelaide, and then move when they secured the offer.

There's some moving costs - but i would imagine it's going to be in the order of about 1-2 months of rent at most. Of course, if you have kids, with school and such, then you'd have a harder time.

Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by Khaine on Friday February 24, 2023 @10:14PM (#34933455)
Immigration is keeping wages down, and continues to do so. It is also putting immense pressure on the rental market.

Want to improve the lives of ordinary Australians? Reduce immigration levels.

Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by tallytarik on Saturday February 25, 2023 @03:11AM (#34934875)
Can you explain how you arrived at that conclusion?
Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by Khaine on Saturday February 25, 2023 @03:54AM (#34935076)
Common sense.

Employees can import foreign labour which has the effect of putting downward pressure on wages. Hence why wage inflation has stalled since COVID restrictions have been eased.

And in terms of rental market, it has been widely reported.

Westpac has forecast that Australian rents will continue to hyper inflate until mid-2024 because of soaring international migration.

Westpac Business and St George senior economist Pat Bustamante warned the current rental inflation was likely to be longer and more severe than the prior cycles because demand via immigration was vastly outpacing supply.

“Given the current supply and demand dynamics, and the lag in supply, the peak would likely take longer than people expect”, Bustamante told The AFR.

“The return of migrants and international students… [is] putting a further strain on the rental market”. [1]

People don't dare say reduce immigration because then you get called racist.

[1] https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/02/westpac-migration-s...

Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by landswipe on Saturday February 25, 2023 @06:16AM (#34935736)
'Employers', but I agree. The thing is, rental inflation is going to cause the property market to go pop... You can see it a mile away.
Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by brokenmachine on Monday February 27, 2023 @12:00AM (#34953167)
What will be the effects when that happens?
Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by tallytarik on Saturday February 25, 2023 @07:06AM (#34936032)
Thanks for answering.

> Employees can import foreign labour which has the effect of putting downward pressure on wages.

You didn’t cite any sources here, and according to [1] this is wrong.

In response to your comments about the rental market, I noticed you picked a source that is overwhelmingly anti-immigration. (I counted 4 more articles either linked or ‘recommended’ that described in varying terms how immigration is the cause of all of Australia’s problems)

I don’t say that as a means to ignore the argument, rather I think we’re all better when we can recognise biases - internal and external.

According to [2], the rental crisis has been caused by many factors predominantly related to the pandemic rather than immigration.

> People don't dare say reduce immigration because then you get called racist.

I don’t think an argument should be dismissed on that basis, either! But surely you accept that some who advocate for reducing immigration do so simply because they are racist.

Some may avoid the suggestion because they recognise that immigration is longstanding policy and perhaps a defining feature of our country.

Some may see that other countries who are less welcoming of migrants are indeed having the same wage/inflation/property problems.

So it is possible that some do not reject your argument because they think you are racist but because the argument is not convincing.

[1] https://insidestory.org.au/does-immigration-mean-lower-wages...

[2] https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/brief/why-does-australia-h...

Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by Khaine on Saturday February 25, 2023 @10:21AM (#34937292)
I didn't think I needed to provide evidence, because it is common sense driven by basic supply and demand.

You want a developer, then if all or nearly all developers are employed you need to offer higher wages to them to defect to your company. If however you can import an immigrant and pay them the same or lower wage (which is better than they get in their home country), then suddenly you don't need to offer a higher wage to local developers.

The fact that I need to explain, and prove, this to supposedly intelligent people is frankly mind boggling.

Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by kilburn on Saturday February 25, 2023 @01:17PM (#34938998)
The comment you are replying to provided links that include actual evidence to the contrary.

Your reasoning is acknowledged in those links, and then they explain that this narrative sounds good but the data proves it wrong.

Some things really are mind boggling :)

Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by sumedh on Saturday February 25, 2023 @07:12AM (#34936070)
When there was no immigration during Covid salaries from people rose because employees could easily get a higher salary job so the employers were forced to increase salaries.

Now that immigration is open employers will offer less salary compared to the market but a fresh of the plane immigrant will still end taking that job because his/hers first priority is getting a job and they dont fully know what the market rate is.

Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by tallytarik on Saturday February 25, 2023 @07:41AM (#34936220)
> When there was no immigration during Covid salaries from people rose

Source? I’m not aware wages on average increased during the pandemic.

To the rest of your comment, it seems to be incorrect: https://insidestory.org.au/does-immigration-mean-lower-wages...

Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by sumedh on Sunday February 26, 2023 @06:27AM (#34944736)
> I’m not aware wages on average increased during the pandemic.

Did you switch jobs during Covid? Talk to your friends and colleagues who switched jobs and then get back to me.

Before you link any random website, you have to figure out what is their agenda. There is lot of propaganda. These so called studies claim that immigration does not hurt wages, then you have to look into who is sponsoring these studies. Lot of times its some industry lobby group who wants to lobby for more immigration to suppress wages funds these studies to get the conclusion they want.

If you trust such studies you should also trust that cigarettes are good for you because cigarette companies paid scientists in the past to conduct studies to show doctors recommend cigarettes.

Don't fall for such propaganda again or try running a business where you have to hire employees.

Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by tallytarik on Sunday February 26, 2023 @03:43PM (#34949195)
> Talk to your friends and colleagues who switched jobs and then get back to me.

They increased their salary!

Did you know that lots of other people didn't change jobs during the pandemic? In fact, some people even lost their jobs! And lots of others kept the same job at the same salary (while inflation increased).

From 14 March to 3 October 2020, for example, the ABS reported that wages were down -3.3% (and would be much lower if you excluded JobKeeper payments)[1].

We're on a tech website, so if you had scoped your comment to "tech workers salaries rose on average", I would probably agree. Do remember that the world doesn't consist entirely of tech workers.

> There is lot of propaganda.

This is certainly true. But given you didn't provide any of your own sources to back up anything you're saying, some might think you're using accusations of "propaganda" as a simple means to disagree with something you don't like.

[1] https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Depart...

Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by sumedh on Sunday February 26, 2023 @11:39PM (#34953018)
> Do remember that the world doesn't consist entirely of tech workers.

> But given you didn't provide any of your own sources to back up anything you're saying,

https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2022/jun/job-mo...

Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by tallytarik on Monday February 27, 2023 @01:27AM (#34953662)
Could you explain how that supports the point you first made?

My reading is that it says more people changed jobs than usual, and noted that changing jobs often leads to higher wages (in case I wasn't clear before - I agree!)

It makes no comment about immigration or a significant increase in wages during the pandemic (whether or not related to immigration), which I understand is your argument.

Wage growth in fact dropped significantly in the first year of the pandemic[1], before rising to its highest level in 10 years just recently - coincidentally(?) a year after we opened back up and our migrant arrivals increased significantly[2].

[1] https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-...

[2] https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/overseas...

Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by defrost on Monday February 27, 2023 @01:35AM (#34953709)
Both of you dueling statistics re: Au might be interested the latest quarter figures, characterised by the ABC as:

Profits again outstrip wages amid accusations 'corporate Australia is driving inflation'

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-27/wages-rise-but-profit...

(I have no position, just throwing grist to the mill)

Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by Atsuii on Friday February 24, 2023 @10:54PM (#34933707)
I don't feel as though the conclusion is unspoken. The government specifically and clearly sets out to keep wages suppressed by the number of 'skilled' and 'unskilled' visas it approves. Meanwhile we have the lowest vacancy rates ever and the rate in which we are building homes is still out stripped by immigration.

You raise a really good rate with the lack of workforce mobility. From outside Australia it is probably really hard to understand how immobile our workforce is considering how large the country is. The governments at both a federal and state level seem to be very keen on ensuring the professional working class who could be remote stay immobile putting greater pressure on cost of livings in centralised cities.

Re:Analysis finds Australia’s inflation being driven by comp... by BLKNSLVR on Saturday February 25, 2023 @08:27AM (#34936498)
Only anecdotal, but a friend of mine in Adelaide is having his rent increased 30% as of April.

Thirty percent!

Understandably he's looking to move and buy because fuck being beholden to that kind of bullshit ever.