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Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by VLM on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @10:59AM (#34414094)
Propane market is a good analogy for solar and wind energy; lots of it, but hard to stockpile, and matching the producers to the consumers seems a very inefficient market with lots of economic and energy losses.

Electricity will be like propane, soon.

Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by Zach_the_Lizard on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @11:32AM (#34414593)
It's pretty common in rural areas to have buried propane tanks that are refilled by trucks.

Depending on the climate and size of the tank, these might last all winter.

If you call that stockpiling, it's pretty easy, I'd say.

Much harder is the pretty capital intensive residential natural gas line.

Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by colechristensen on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @11:46AM (#34414801)
We would also sometimes buy our propane for future delivery months ahead of time.
Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by xattt on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @12:28PM (#34415496)
> It's pretty common in rural areas to have buried propane tanks that are refilled by trucks.

Prince Edward Island is rural and has no natural gas infrastructure. It’s either fuel oil (diesel without road taxes applied) or propane for fossil fuel-based heating.

Residential propane tanks are above-ground barrels that are ~5 feet tall on concrete pads with trucks coming so often.

Many of the remote rural folks end up getting propane stoves in order to be able to cook when power is out.

Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by Scoundreller on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @12:40PM (#34415672)
No wood pellet stoves? Should be cheaper, but a bit more hands-on and needs electricity.
Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by landemva on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @01:06PM (#34416098)
The jet sizing is different for propane / nat gas. Other than that simple change, stoves and furnaces and water heaters operate the same.
Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by bluGill on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @01:31PM (#34416542)
Most water heaters and furnaces don't have replaceable jets. In theory you are correct, but in practice you buy for the fuel you have. Stoves and dryers generally have replaceable jets. I don't know why this is, just that it is.
Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by 0xbadcafebee on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @01:45PM (#34416776)
I live in a tiny house in NY and my water/heat/stove is propane. Get it filled by a service that I pay in advance to lock in a price for a year and save. Two big tanks sitting outside on a pad. The poor truck driver has to climb down a hill with the hose since my driveway can't handle his truck, but it's manageable.
Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by korroziya on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @11:04AM (#34414169)
I respectfully disagree. Propane (and natgas for that matter) while harder to store than coal or crude, is a hell of a lot easier to store than electricity from wind/solar. Propane tanks can be picked up, carried and used regardless of whether the sun shines or the wind blows, hence why renewables are "intermittent" and gas-fired electricity is not.
Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by toast0 on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @11:32AM (#34414601)
Adding on, propane is pretty easy to stockpile as a consumer. Here's my anecdote:

I've got two 250 gallon propane tanks in my yard. One goes to my whole house generator which can go several days if needed; the other goes to the stove, water heater, and fireplace; this lasts several months, but not a whole year. After a few years experience, the best plan seems to be fill in september/october and again when prices come down in the spring. I'd probably try to get a bigger tank or a second tank for the house if we ever need to do meaningful work on the system, so we can fill once a year in the summer. Combining the two tanks I have now would probably be too expensive, and a dedicated supply for the generator seems good operationaly. The previous owner leased the tanks, and we kept going with that; it's probably better to own them as then you can get better fuel pricing.

Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by latchkey on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @12:28PM (#34415503)
Why not buy futures? Buy now, deliver later?
Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by toast0 on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @12:45PM (#34415755)
I'm locked into deliveries by the owner of the tanks, and they don't offer that, AFAIK.
Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by Scoundreller on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @12:39PM (#34415647)
Grid electricity? A heat pump might buy you enough heat (at a better price than propane) during the shoulder seasons to get by on 1 fill.

If you’re off the grid, forget that :)

Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by toast0 on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @12:44PM (#34415733)
Yes, I've got grid electricity, at least 360 days a year.

I do have and use heat pumps for heating the house; the fireplace is mostly decorative (it is properly setup to be effective at heating the room it's in, but it needs electricity to function and my generator can run the heat pumps, but maybe if the generator fuel got low). That's not going to replace my stove though. Maybe the water heater. (Oh and the clothes dryer, forgot about that one... but I've not seen good things about heat pump clothes dryers)

Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by dragontamer on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @11:07AM (#34414223)
Another critical difference: we can store propane inside of steel and/or concrete containers. There are a few "steel and concrete" containers that can hold electricity (ex: Pumped Hydro), but the bulk of our technology is in Li-ion / rarer metals.

Steel and Concrete are two of the cheapest materials we have. Anything that uses it (rather than more expensive stuff) is strictly an advantage.

Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by actionfromafar on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @11:45AM (#34414789)
I don't quite understand your point. Electricity is commonly produced by carbon neutral processes. Propane is (approximately) never.

So to compare steel+concrete to batteries feels like a non sequitur to me.

Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by p1mrx on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @12:27PM (#34415486)
It is possible to make renewable methanol, convert it into dimethyl ether, and then store/use it in a manner similar to propane:

https://www.aboutdme.org/aboutdme/files/cclibraryfiles/filen...

I could imagine a future where we use heat pumps with propane/rDME backup for power outages or extreme cold weather events, assuming that it won't be profitable to maintain residential natural gas for infrequent use.

Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by dragontamer on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @12:52PM (#34415843)
There's a number of biofuels that emulate fossil fuels. Ex: Ethanol emulates Gasoline. Synthetic bio-propane seems to be available too.

If we are to be discussing bio-propane vs batteries, the storage benefits are key.

Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by akiselev on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @03:16PM (#34418234)
Most of the waste from biofuel production [1] is used as animal feed, so double green!

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distillers_grains

Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by dragontamer on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @03:19PM (#34418292)
Ehhh, I'm actually kind of bearish on grains as bio-fuel.

I'd like to see the switchgrass biofuel take off. A surprising amount of emissions in the USA (and Brazil) are due to deforestation associated with turning forests into farmland. That's largely mitigated by using "natural plants", like switchgrass instead of farm crops.

I mean, its all "solar power into fuel", which is great. But its also important to recognize that some (ie: switchgrass based biofuel) are better than others (ex: grain or corn based biofuel).

Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by mullingitover on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @01:43PM (#34416752)
Give it time. ESS is making huge iron-based flow batteries that fit in a 40 foot shipping container[1], have a 25 year operating life, and can be stacked up at a solar/wind site like lego blocks to turn the intermittent generation into steady supply. There's other stuff like this in development.

[1] https://essinc.com/energy-warehouse/

Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by dahfizz on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @01:53PM (#34416923)
That website doesn't mention cost, but just the shipping container that houses the battery is going to cost much more than an equivalent propane tank.

The battery is quoted at 400kwh, which is 1,440 MJ of energy. That is equivalent to 30KG of propane. Three little tanks like this[1] has the same energy as your massive battery.

So yeah, propane is easier to store.

[1] https://www.walmart.com/ip/Bernzomatic-20-Pound-Refillable-P...

Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by mullingitover on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @02:35PM (#34417508)
I think these batteries would be used on the site of infra-scale renewables generation, a one-time installation, not something you'd store at your home. And there are already shipping container batteries that store 1MHW for $775k[1].

[1] https://www.electriccarpartscompany.com/1mwh-energy-storage-...

Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by dahfizz on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @02:50PM (#34417746)
The point is that batteries are many orders of magnitude off in terms of cost, weight, size compared to fossil fuel storage.

> Electricity will be like propane, soon.

Is not true for any reasonable definition of "soon". Our efforts would be better spent optimizing the grid for variable load rather than trying to solve storage. Actual grid scale storage will be unsolvable for decades.

Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by korroziya on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @02:58PM (#34417904)
>give it time

EIA predicts renewables will help fossil fuels make up half of the US' power generation in another 27 years.

Re:What's Ahead for U.S. Propane Marketers in Winter 2022-23? by adolph on Tuesday January 17, 2023 @01:58PM (#34416989)
Future scenario might be Wind/solar powered CO2, H2O conversion to methane or beyond to methanol for storage and bulk transfer.