EDIT: or is it "well-to-wheels" style energy (i.e. primary energy consumed by heat pump = primary energy consumed by gas boiler), or is it CO2 (same emissions)
Of course, there's also the installation costs of a heat pump. But it did pay for itself in a reasonably short time. If it hadn't been that efficient it wouldn't have - first, there's the actual price, which is not as much these days as it used to be, but then there's the actual installation by a pro, and I believe that part has only gone up since then.
As to cost wise it depends on the cost per kWh of your electricity vs gas. In the UK gas is far cheaper per kWh.
CO2 wise it depends on the CO2 intensity of your electric source vs a local gas burner.
However that only applies when it's -20C. When it's a more reasonable like now at 7AM in Chicago when it's 2 degrees C, you're generating something like 2.5kWh of heat for every 1kWh of electricity. That may not be financially beneficial if your gas is 5c/kWh and electricity is 30c/kWh, that depends on your various deals.
For me in the UK, my external oil boiler this winter has cost about 10p/kWh. My electricity is 21p/kWh. A heat pump I looked at was a 3.84 ratio, so if that ratio held down as far as typical winter temperatures of 6C (it's currently 11C), that would be 5.5p/kWh, and obviously far less CO2 per unit of heat.
Air source heat pumps were barely breaking even compared to gas so you'd be spending £10k+ to install it without saving any money.
Ground source heat pumps offered better efficiency but if I recall correctly purchase + installation was a £35k investment that would take decades to recoup.
There's also the consideration of additional costs due to lower running temperature which often necessitate larger radiators.
They might make more financial sense if energy costs stay high, since they're easier to supplement with domestic renewables.
Given the hot summers and energy costs in the UK I think many homes would find that investment a net gain.
> There's also the consideration of additional costs due to lower running temperature which often necessitate larger radiators.
I don't know what that means. There are no radiators for mini splits or air source heat pumps, maybe you are talking about ground source hot-water systems? They are still stupidly expensive, for good reason, huge install consideration.
Today's low upfront cost of mini split heat pumps makes for a highly favourable option for new builds, and indeed even the average home.
It was 2021 when I last last looked into it but I recall that 10k was the list price of the cheapest air source heat pump that wouldn't result in a net increase in energy bills. I don't believe it included installation or any other associated costs.
> Given the hot summers and energy costs in the UK I think many homes would find that investment a net gain.
It's almost unheard of for UK homes to have any sort of cooling installed.
> I don't know what that means. There are no radiators for mini splits or air source heat pumps, maybe you are talking about ground source hot-water systems? They are still stupidly expensive, for good reason, huge install consideration.
UK homes are mainly heated with hot water radiators in each room; typically by an on demand gas combi-boiler that also handles hot water. Heat pump installations in the UK typically heat a hot water tank[0] that provides domestic hot water and heats the radiators.
Due to poor insulation the gas central heating systems typically run at around 60-80c. Heat pumps here usually heat the water to around 40c. This will often require replacing existing radiators that were installed expecting ~70c flow temperature with oner that can disperse more heat into the room. It can also involve additional insulation.
> Today's low upfront cost of mini split heat pumps makes for a highly favourable option for new builds, and indeed even the average home.
Indeed, heat pumps are a sensible choice for most new build homes in the UK as well. They typically have much better insulation and are therefore less affected by the low flow temperature. The costs involved in retrofitting anything older than 10, maybe 20 years old were.
[0] https://solarthermuk.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/air_so...
And yeah, cooling is not a thing in the UK, my point is folks are definitely going to be looking toward that given the summers people have been having, increase heating costs will make mini splits a double win. No brainer to me and I bet mini splits will be in limited supply this summer in Europe.
* How would the heat be moved around the house?
* Obtaining permission to modify the exterior of a multi-occupancy dwelling is extremely difficult.
* You'd still require a source of hot water, reducing the already small savings over an efficient combi-boiler.
Based on the estimated savings of the Energy Saving Trust, it'd take around 26 years to pay off a £3k install that replaces a modern combi-boiler[0] and that's without the cost of using electricity to provide heated water. As recently as March of this year Which claimed most houses would have paid an extra £80/year if running a heat pump[1].
They could be a good choice for completely new installs and people stuck on resistive electric heating if they can find a way to disperse the heat evenly. I'd bet a lot of money that the majority of properties with electric heating are rentals, good luck convincing a landlord to pay for anything.
[0] https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/advice/air-source-heat-pump... [1] https://www.which.co.uk/reviews/ground-and-air-source-heat-p...
Moving the heat around the house requires doors to be open and thoughtful placement of the head units which have fans in them to push the air around. It is certainly not ideal but we are comfortable.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34233719
Obviously it depends on ability to scale, but UK rad heating systems are usually rated for 50 or 60C, thus this seems to fit the bill.
Home renewables help but require even more capital investment, often taking 10 or more years to pay off. It doesn't help that where I am solar has extremely limited output in the winter. Domestic wind turbines are difficult to situate and get planning approval for. My cursory impression is that they're also less economical than many solar installs.
I've got some roof repairs coming up soon and I'm hoping the economics of replacing the existing roof with some nice looking solar slate tiles work out favourably!
[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/426988/united-kingdom-uk...
For instance we have a heat pump that we mostly use for AC. Our primary heat is a gas boiler feeding steam radiators. We'll use the heat pump in the shoulder seasons when you just want to take the chill out of a specific room, but usually nothing else heat wise.
Last winter our boiler died and we spent about a month without it. That provided me a good opportunity to do something closer to apples/apples. Despite having the cold weather rated heat pump (Mitsubishi HyperHeat2) the extra electricity consumed that month was about the same as our typical gas cost. A slight bit more actually.
But I have no idea about energy usage in an objective sense. And if I really wanted to go down this rabbit hole, we're subscribed to an energy plan that's mostly based on renewables whereas obviously 0% of our gas is the same.
In our case it is academic as due to quirks of our house configuration (the joys of a house pushing 200 years old) we can only get units in a couple of rooms. It's good enough to keep the house cool in the summer, and heat the house in a real emergency like last winter but not something we can rely on for primary heat.
Were you heating with electricity before? In that case you're sure so see improvement since resistive heating is always 1:1 while your heatpump is 1:1 in some of the worst cases.
One such example: https://flair.co/pages/central-systems-smart-vents
In that case, yea, it would be a {something} to water heat pump to heat up the water, and then circulate that water through the house.
It would be curious if there were installations that did the other way too. In theory, you could also circulate cold water in the summer. The problem would have been "how do you make the water cold?" and in many older cases, that would be impractical. Though... that could lead to condensation on the radiators in the summer which could have downstream effects (condensation drips water on the floor).
Theoretically you could indeed drive cool water to the radiators to cool the house, but you don't get the convection effect that a radiator produces when hot, nor thermal radiation. So you need to rely on transfer of heat from the air to the metal of the radiator, potentially with no airflow. Easier to open the windows. In the last 12 years, I've never wished I had a system to chill the air in my dwelling; Ireland is generally on the cool side (though this may change).
This would be kind of running a mini-split AC to the rooms using water as the refrigerant instead of what hvac normally runs.
It's not a "this is the best choice" or even "this is a better choice than opening the windows" but rather a "if you did this, would it work? kind of?"
Yes, but it isn't very common at all for one simple reason: condensation. You have to keep the temperature of the coolant above the dew point, which requires knowledge of ambient temperature and humidity. That means your coolant isn't actually that cold, so it can absorb less heat before needing to be re-chilled. It's overall pretty inefficient.
FWIW: we installed a heat pump recently here in Portland, and conveniently had a once-in-a-decade cold snap (17-20F for 3 days -- the PNW isn't that cold) in its second month. The system was just-barely-heat-flow-positive. A six hour power outage dropped the house temperature to ~64F, and it took a good 30 hours to get back to the 69F set point of the thermostat.
So... on the whole we're pleased and the system did just fine in extremis. But no way would it handle -20C/-4F.
A good designer will not oversize HVAC for edge cases like a once-a-decade weather system. You will size it to meet typical conditions, saving money and increasing efficiency by having a 4 ton heat pump vs 6.
For heating conditions, the typical workaround to meet demand in edge case extreme or long term cold is to add resistive heat pumps, which are much cheaper than upsizing the whole system. Though they are less efficient and therefore cost more to operate, they will only be used a few days a year when the heat pump loses ground.
I have a 60kBtu/h ground-source heat pump backed up by 7kW heat strips that replaced a 110kBtu/h gas furnace. The heat pump meets our needs for probably 51 weeks a year. Typically we will have the strips kick on during a few days in February. But it saves us a ton of money not having to have a second heat pump or larger ground loop system.
No, it's not. The temperature at which the heat pump produces zero net energy flow is a thermodynamic property of the system. You can make the system as big as you want and it will still produce zero energy, because zero times anything is still zero. That's why that temperature isn't interesting: yes, your heat pump "won't work" below that temperature, but it also "won't work" at a range of higher temperatures. And that range, as you point out, depends on installation details and insulation. But that's not what the upthread comment was saying.
And as it happens, I got a chance to measure that for my system. And it turns out to be somewhere around 15-17F. I genuinely thought folks would like to hear about that as useful info, but instead it turned into this giant "actually" subthread...
It is true that a given insulated structure will have heat loss varying based on the differential between indoor and outdoor conditions. This is a power curve, i.e. a certain kW rate of energy loss for given conditions. The rate will increase as inside and outside conditions diverge. But for anticipated conditions, it is a finite value you can use to plan your system.
This is what people mean is "just sizing": Install a system with a sufficient kW output rating to support your desired indoor and outdoor operating conditions. You would size it to exceed the real loss rate of the structure, so that you have head room to increase the differential within an acceptable recovery period.
There are heat pumps that do well below freezing, they're just top of the line and so more expensive.
The 1:1 threshold tells you about the temp that everyone needs to start thinking about alternative heat sources. If you system is undersized and/or your house is poorly insulated, that threshold may be higher, but those numbers are per installation and don't answer the broad question about if heat pumps can "work" in cold climates.
I'm deeply sorry if this offended you for some reason, but I still don't see how you're disagreeing with anything I wrote.
I did not read it that way at all. To me they are clearly talking about the point at which your heat pump no longer provides a efficiency gain over a purely resistive heater.
I think where you went wrong is reading "gain" as "heat gain" rather than "efficiency gain". While the usage of "gain" is sort of ambiguous there, the rest of the comment thread makes it clear that the term 1:1 is not discussing the point at which your heat pump stops producing any heat but the point at which it becomes inefficient.
> that's not the threshold you use to size a heat pump as is doesn't reflect a steady state
I don't think anyone except you was talking about sizing the system, but about selecting the system type given the climate.
If you had come into this just saying "here's my relevant experience with sizing heat pumps", that would have been productive. However you strongly asserted that the OP was using the wrong metric, which they weren't.
> I'm deeply sorry if this offended you for some reason,
I'm not sure why you think I am offended.
Relative and Absolute temps can generally mess people up too.
From the book Humble Pi by Matt Parker:
"In September 2016 the BBC news reported that both the US and China had signed up to the Paris Agreement on climate change, summarizing the agreement like this: "countries agreed to cut emissions enough to keep the global average rise in temperatures below 2°C (36°F)." The mistake here is not just that the BBC is still giving temperatures in Fahrenheit but that a change of 2°C is not the same as a change of 36°F, even though a temperature of 2°C is the same as 36°F. If you were outside on a day when the temperature was 2°C and you looked at a Fahrenheit thermometer, it would indeed read 36°F. But if the temperature then increased by 2°C, it would go up only by 3.6°F. The crazy thing is, the BBC initially got it correct. Thanks to the amazing website newssniffer.co.uk, which automatically tracks all changes in online news articles, we can see the chaos in the BBC newsroom as a series of numerical edits. To be fair, the article was part of the live coverage of breaking news and was designed to be regularly updated. The first version of the article that mentioned temperature gave the change as 2°C."
(https://books.google.ca/books?id=2IeVDwAAQBAJ&lpg=PT223&ots=...)
Both over- and undersizing them each have their own issues; see §2.1.1 and §2.1.2:
* https://yukon.ca/sites/yukon.ca/files/emr/emr-air-source-hea...
I overbought for sure, as I got a hybrid system that has a gas furnace backup. I've never needed it, but I've had a couple times where I wanted it and it was nice to have. If I switch it from "Heat" to "Emergency Heat", then it overrides the automatic determination of which heat source to use and just uses gas.
I didn't lose power during that cold snap, but if I did, it would have probably brought the temp back up in under 4 hours.
We installed three mini splits in total for a ~2k sq ft 1800s draughty home. Before we had them our central air gas furnace, which is ~20 years old, would burn through upwards of $600 a month of gas in winter. With heat pumps we pay $180 a month equalized and we run heat or cool all year except for maybe a month in spring and fall where it's perfect 22c outside.
Without this magical tech we'd be broke or cold in the winter and uncomfortable all summer.
Winter Storm Elliott dropped temperatures far below the average lows in places that might otherwise be well served by heat pumps. Many southern states saw -5 F and it got considerably colder elsewhere.
That’s not to say that heat pumps can’t play a role in HVAC systems, but they must have a backup.
The numbers above are the 1:1 point, which doesn’t mean it stops working. It just means it’s similar efficiency to an electric heater at that point.
“Freeze to death” is an extreme exaggeration.
I just wish the thermostat let me customize the threshold a bit. I don’t like having the heat pump go to maximum load before it lets the furnace come on. Ideally the system would know the current prices of both gas and electricity and run whatever is cheaper, given the indoor and outdoor temperatures.
Edit: Looking at the specs for current Mitsubishi models, they are pretty decent (as in: Getting more out than you put in, and useful effect too) at -25C, reaches 1:1 at -30, or, for some, even colder. At optimal conditions you get 4.4 to 5.5 times as much out as you put in, depending on model and temperature.
- Cooling operating range -22°~122° F (-30°~50° C)
- Heating operating range -22°~86° F (-30°~30° C)
And what it does when it's really cold _and_ somewhat humid outside is that it detects when frost appear on the outside element, at that point it reverses the flow and uses the heat from inside to defrost the outside element. As far as I know it does not include any actual resistive heater for this (though won't bet my life on that statement). It's been working very reliably all these years (except for a leak in the cooling fluid which appeared relatively soon after installation, promptly fixed by the provider). I have to get it cleaned now and then to keep up the efficiency. It's in every other respect completely without hassle.