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Re:Bitcoin hashrate drops nearly 40% as deadly U.S. storm un... by Dylan16807 on Monday December 26, 2022 @06:35PM (#34143135)
> Difficulty changes the odds of any given hash attempt winning. It does not change the odds you will find a winning hash before anyone else does. That is based on your proportion of the overall hash rate.

Nobody cares about who finds it first.

They care about blocks per hour.

> If all miners dropped off (or 99%), blocks won’t keep getting mined every 5 minutes. They’ll take forever to mine until the network adjusts the difficulty, which takes awhile - 2016 blocks, to be precise.

And until that difficulty changes, the remaining miners will find they still get the same number of blocks per hour. In the time the network used to find 1000 blocks, of which they got 10, the network will now find 10 blocks, and they will get... 10.

Re:Bitcoin hashrate drops nearly 40% as deadly U.S. storm un... by lazide on Monday December 26, 2022 @07:09PM (#34143348)
Since the only person who gets paid is the person who finds the hash for any given block first, you better believe people care who finds it first for a block!

Since SHA256 has not yet been broken, it will over time be in proportion to each miners contribution to the overall hash rate. By design.

If someone gets a valid value for a block and gets it in the chain (mines the block) is 100% dependent on if anyone else finds it first and gets it accepted by the network.

As to the rest of it - yikes. Not only is there no mechanism whatsoever that would do what you seem to think happens, but it makes zero sense if you have a cursory idea of how Bitcoin is constructed, or what miners even do.

Good luck, and adios!

Re:Bitcoin hashrate drops nearly 40% as deadly U.S. storm un... by Dylan16807 on Monday December 26, 2022 @07:15PM (#34143386)
Nobody wants any particular block.

They want to find A block.

So two seconds after someone else finds a block, they're working on the next block. They don't care about the event at all. Their expected reward per hash doesn't change at all. Their expected reward per hour doesn't change at all.

Finding a hash "first" is an irrelevant idea, because everyone stops searching for that block instantly, and starts searching for the next block. Roughly zero hashes get wasted.

> As to the rest of it - yikes.

I'm quoting the scenario in your earlier post, you goofus.

> The time you could expect that to take, if all but 1% of the hashrate disappears, is going to be 100x of the time (on average) it would take with the original hashrate. Unless it takes so long the difficulty target reduces, of course, and the odds change.

It takes the remaining miners 100x as long to find blocks.

But they get to keep 100x as many of the found blocks.

So they still get the same reward per hour. Until the difficulty adjusts.

This is basic arithmetic.

> Since SHA256 has not yet been broken, it will over time be in proportion to each miners contribution to the overall hash rate. By design.

In proportion to each miner's contribution, and also in proportion to how many blocks per minute are being found.

If you don't wait for a difficulty update, then removing some amount of miners changes the block-finding rate in exact inverse proportion. So the blocks-per-hour of each miner stays exactly the same.

Remove half the miners, blocks are found half as fast until difficulty updates.

Triple the number of miners, blocks are found three times as fast until difficulty updates.

2x win rate * 1/2x block rate = 1x

1/3x win rate * 3x block rate = 1x

Until the difficulty updates.

Re:Bitcoin hashrate drops nearly 40% as deadly U.S. storm un... by lazide on Tuesday December 27, 2022 @12:09PM (#34150746)
Ah hah, thanks! I’m finally understanding the relationship you’re discussing. Thanks!