Re:Bitcoin hashrate drops nearly 40% as deadly U.S. storm un...
by Dylan16807 on Monday December 26, 2022 @07:15PM
(#34143386)
Nobody wants any particular block.
They want to find A block.
So two seconds after someone else finds a block, they're working on the next block. They don't care about the event at all. Their expected reward per hash doesn't change at all. Their expected reward per hour doesn't change at all.
Finding a hash "first" is an irrelevant idea, because everyone stops searching for that block instantly, and starts searching for the next block. Roughly zero hashes get wasted.
> As to the rest of it - yikes.
I'm quoting the scenario in your earlier post, you goofus.
> The time you could expect that to take, if all but 1% of the hashrate disappears, is going to be 100x of the time (on average) it would take with the original hashrate. Unless it takes so long the difficulty target reduces, of course, and the odds change.
It takes the remaining miners 100x as long to find blocks.
But they get to keep 100x as many of the found blocks.
So they still get the same reward per hour. Until the difficulty adjusts.
This is basic arithmetic.
> Since SHA256 has not yet been broken, it will over time be in proportion to each miners contribution to the overall hash rate. By design.
In proportion to each miner's contribution, and also in proportion to how many blocks per minute are being found.
If you don't wait for a difficulty update, then removing some amount of miners changes the block-finding rate in exact inverse proportion. So the blocks-per-hour of each miner stays exactly the same.
Remove half the miners, blocks are found half as fast until difficulty updates.
Triple the number of miners, blocks are found three times as fast until difficulty updates.
They want to find A block.
So two seconds after someone else finds a block, they're working on the next block. They don't care about the event at all. Their expected reward per hash doesn't change at all. Their expected reward per hour doesn't change at all.
Finding a hash "first" is an irrelevant idea, because everyone stops searching for that block instantly, and starts searching for the next block. Roughly zero hashes get wasted.
> As to the rest of it - yikes.
I'm quoting the scenario in your earlier post, you goofus.
> The time you could expect that to take, if all but 1% of the hashrate disappears, is going to be 100x of the time (on average) it would take with the original hashrate. Unless it takes so long the difficulty target reduces, of course, and the odds change.
It takes the remaining miners 100x as long to find blocks.
But they get to keep 100x as many of the found blocks.
So they still get the same reward per hour. Until the difficulty adjusts.
This is basic arithmetic.
> Since SHA256 has not yet been broken, it will over time be in proportion to each miners contribution to the overall hash rate. By design.
In proportion to each miner's contribution, and also in proportion to how many blocks per minute are being found.
If you don't wait for a difficulty update, then removing some amount of miners changes the block-finding rate in exact inverse proportion. So the blocks-per-hour of each miner stays exactly the same.
Remove half the miners, blocks are found half as fast until difficulty updates.
Triple the number of miners, blocks are found three times as fast until difficulty updates.
2x win rate * 1/2x block rate = 1x
1/3x win rate * 3x block rate = 1x
Until the difficulty updates.