Otherwise, I agree that Tesla FSD Beta has been progressing nicely. I don't know if it will take 1, 2, or 5 years to get FSD Beta to an acceptable rate of graceful failures, but I agree it looks likely to get there before the end of the decade!
> within a factor of 100x of Waymo
What's your evidence for this? Is there anybody who has done a systematic comparison of Tesla performance in Arizon zone of Waymo?
https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/auto...
Here is a more human digestible summary:
https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/02/09/2021-disen...
In 2021, Waymo averaged ~7,900 miles per disengagement and Cruise averaged ~41,000. In 2020, Waymo averaged ~30,000 and Cruise around 28,500.
Tesla is absent from those reports as they have deliberately declared that all of their vehicles do not even qualify as L4/5 autonomous vehicles. They have furthermore not released any 3rd party auditable metrics for any of their claims. So, from an official perspective, Tesla is infinitely worse than Waymo.
From an unofficial standpoint, we can use Youtube videos and self-reported tracking by invested fans such as here https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/
Both of those classes of unofficial metrics by positively biased groups consistently demonstrate around 10-20 miles per disengagement at max.
As Waymo averaged 8,700 last year, that makes Tesla around 400-800x worse than Waymo as of last year and around 2,000-4,000x worse than Cruise as of last year.
We can also see from the unofficial Tesla fan metrics that FSD Beta has seen no material improvement from around one year ago.
But you have seen how Tesla performs in such environments, and you aren't allowed to take your hands off the wheel.
What makes you assume Tesla has the right approach and the other have companies have to be measured against it?
All fully autonomous cars are in a different legal situation then Tesla. Tesla sells Joe Shmoe a car and then tells him he can rub FSD but he's responsible and has to remain attentive then they get info about every disengagement and (mostly) avoid legal responsibility or accidents in many cases.
Waymo is fully responsible for every accident, etc so they HAVE to proceed more cautiously or they'll lose the ability to run their cars. As someone else pointed out they often are only operated in very specific areas, and often even specific streets within a geofence. So while on the surface Waymo may have full self driving operating more effectively with less problems, they're doing so in a much more controlled environment and not getting the variety of data that Tesla has from cars disengaging Literally anywhere in the US.
i didn't sign up to be killed by some idiot tech bro testing a class project where they plumbed alexnet into the steering wheel of a 2000kg vehicle and took a couple of steps downhill
the streets are already dangerous enough for pedestrians
Tesla fsd in its current state will either crash or do some serious fuck up if you let it unattended for a few hours or maybe less (based on the disengagements in those videos). Forget about driverless Tesla with the current fsd. Waymo has been operating driverless since 2019.
I do agree that it is progressing very nicely. Imo tesla fsd needs 2 more years and a hardware update and it will be there.