MAD is an insane game of chicken that we always knew could be tested by madmen, zealots and gamblers.

The Russian leader certainly does care about the risks. However, the nature of the game rewards him for acting that he does not, and the other players for reciprocating. Up to a point, that is. MAD is not a good or stable game.

MAD applies if all sides are actually at risk of being destroyed.

A close historical precedent for the current situation is the US against Japan in which the nuclear power didn't have a reason to destroy its enemy (indeed, worked to rebuild it immediately after), and the enemy couldn't retaliate on par. So there was no escalation and instead a quick capitulation.

If Russia uses tactical nukes against Ukraine, it matters how it uses them. Presumably it would like to use them as the US did, so it can take Ukraine without destroying it and put a faster end to the war than otherwise possible.

The US can then concede, escalate the proxy war by giving Ukraine tactical nukes, or strike Russia directly. The latter still looks mostly like MAD to me.

A nuclear proxy war limited to tactical nukes is.. unfortunately all too easy to imagine, with some precedent in the Turkish/Cuban missile crisis. That could then escalate until Russia dominates with its strategic nukes, but presumably Ukraine would capitulate before that. The lesson of high cost to Russia would also be there for future reference.

Seems more likely that every country would shut down trade with Russia, and Ukraine would keep fighting a conventional war with even better weapons than they have now.

> Putin appears to not care.

Putin wants everyone to think that, the reality is that this is almost certainly a ruse. I believe it was Nixon that wanted the Soviets to think he was mad and might press the button at the slightest provocation but it was a lie to get them to back off. There’s no evidence that Putin is suicidal. This is a nuclear steering contest which you can only win by not blinking because Putin doesn’t want Russia to be a smoldering ruin with his own bones a melted pile in the middle.

Putin also said that West only respects power and that the US only talks to Russia because Russia is the only country that can destroy it in half an hour. He might be going to demonstrate his power next so that the West "finally understands".

So, because we understand Russia can destroy us in half an hour we talk to them but Putin’s going to use nukes to make us finally understand Russia can destroy us in half an hour? That makes no sense.

He might be demonstrating he's willing to use them and not talking empty words.

If he uses them then the other powers will need to severely hurt Russia directly otherwise they’d be encouraging Pakistan or India to exchange nukes, North Korea on the south or on Japan, or China on Taiwan or anyone. This would cause WWIII sooner or later so best to risk it sooner by punishing Russia to discourage the guarantee of it later. Basically, the use of nukes at all no matter what kind is a violation of MAD. If Putin wants to do that then we’d need to be back to thinking he’s suicidal, which we don’t. He wants us to give in so he can salami tactic his way into Poland, Moldova, and the Baltic states which would also lead to WWIII so we might as well keep helping the Ukrainians and steer down Putin back to the pre-2014 Russian border because if that doesn’t work then it’s WWIII anyway.

How would Putin even deploy nukes on the battlefield? Are their any targets large enough to warrant a tactical nuke strike? I don’t see it increasing his chances of winning. He could hit Kiev with strategic nukes I guess but he dooms all of Russia no matter what. Really, his nukes are useless here. He gains nothing by using them and risks everything.

Tactical nukes are 1-7x Hiroshima so they are by no means small ones. One can demolish a large city. Strategic nukes are for taking down whole countries at once.

I don't think he cares about conquering Poland, he's not even interested in conquering Western Ukraine (that used to be Poland before WW2). If there is any nuke targeted at a NATO country I bet the first will be Poland just to make the rest of NATO think through if Poland is worth full nuclear war or not. Russia has the escalate-deescalate doctrine anyway. Nobody is going to punish Russia militarily, that would be a suicide for any country that would attempt it. The only way out of this mess is diplomacy and not further escalation from both sides as we see. I think the current world "leaders" lost their minds already and are far from statesmen of old that were willing to compromise on their objectives in order to prevent the unthinkable.

> I don't think he cares about conquering Poland. he's not even interested in conquering Western Ukraine (that used to be Poland before WW2).

Who’s buying that line after columns of Russian troops tried to blitzkrieg Kyiv earlier in the war? Not to mention that eastern Ukraine is useless to Russia from a strategic perspective. They need to secure the Polish gap, the entirety of the Carpathian Mountains down to the Bessarabian gap, and across to the Baltic coast through the Baltic States. That shrinks the Russian border down to a limited and highly defensible size. Putin has long bemoaned that Russia gave all that up when the Soviet Union split up.

> Putin appears to not care.

Or maybe he's just better at "madman theory" than Nixon? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory

MAD hasn’t been breached until a nuclear weapon is deployed in a way that would guarantee a nuclear response under existing treaties.

> Putin has ended that era because appears unconcerned by the prospect of MAD.

I think you should read up on the Cuban missile crisis.

They say Putin (and TFG) is a master of 10-dimensional chess but what they don't tell you is that the game always ends with everyone dead.

That sounds like it should be in Rick and Morty.

Please. Putin has not yet launched a nuclear attack, and I can assure you he would have already if he didn't care about MAD.

You'll be soooo embarrassed if you're wrong!

I won't exist and you likely won't either, so what's to lose? Either way, I did not make a prediction, so I'm not sure what you're even talking about.