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Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by Mobius01 on Saturday October 01, 2022 @01:20AM (#33044112)
The Tesla Robot was underwhelming. I appreciate the engineers on stage highlighting their work, but it all felt a generation behind Boston Dynamic’s efforts.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by ilaksh on Saturday October 01, 2022 @03:24AM (#33044722)
In a way. The motion was not spectacular like Boston Dynamics.

But any walking robot especially at that height and size is a significant engineering achievement.

And they have been working on it for months rather than years. And the system is entirely electric unlike Boston Dynamics.

The last demo was a person in a suit.

Your expectations were unrealistic if you are not impressed.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by tonant on Saturday October 01, 2022 @07:25AM (#33045746)
Similar robots are built every year in colleges around the globe by jr robotics teams. Walking robots have been around for 25 plus years. There was zero to be impressed about. Walking robots are to robotics as hello world is to programming.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by Andys on Saturday October 01, 2022 @06:11PM (#33050605)
It was not simply programmed to walk, it was also using computer vision to decide where to walk too
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by cma on Saturday October 01, 2022 @11:58PM (#33052692)
It looked like a very crude depth occupancy model.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by rcMgD2BwE72F on Sunday October 02, 2022 @02:55PM (#33059043)
>very crude depth occupancy model

Same as Tesla's FSD and 100% vision based. Is it crude too? I thought it was state of the art…

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by ztratar on Saturday October 01, 2022 @06:41PM (#33050852)
"Walking robots are to robotics as hello world is to programming."

You say this confidently, but it is nowhere close to true.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by sixQuarks on Saturday October 01, 2022 @05:15PM (#33050172)
Can you show us some examples?
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by glalonde on Sunday October 02, 2022 @03:16PM (#33059226)
Atlas is also electric. An electric motor tied to a gear pump presumably.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by mhoad on Saturday October 01, 2022 @01:43AM (#33044223)
I mean it was an embarrassingly janky piece of shit that looked like a slight breeze might send it to the ground.

Nobody would first look at that and then want to get into a self driving car built by the same company.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by foobiekr on Saturday October 01, 2022 @01:55AM (#33044271)
I mean.. checking out twitter, there are just hundreds of people, at least, who were just blown away by this janky nonsense and the "fact" that tesla will "ship millions" of these this year "for $20k."

There's some kind of mass delusion going on.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by esskay on Saturday October 01, 2022 @06:21AM (#33045481)
In reality its going to be 10+ years and it'll be more than 20k. Thats assuming they actually release it, they seem to be collecting a pretty large list of vaporware right now. Cybertruck and Semi for example which seem to be stuck in development hell.

They seem to have a real issue actually shipping. Partly because Elon is incapable of understanding realistic timeframes.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by Seanambers on Saturday October 01, 2022 @07:08AM (#33045672)
Unrealistic timeframes also has the benefit of getting the most out of people. But Elon is getting quite a bit of flak for the expectations it sets.

It sure will be interesting to see where FSD & Teslabot is in a couple of years. The pace of innovation is extremely high at Tesla and should make you wonder what Boston Dynamics, Waymo and others have been up to for all these years.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by foobiekr on Saturday October 01, 2022 @10:47AM (#33046973)
Making things that actually work outside of imaginationland?

How can you look at what they showed yesterday after the rest of the world has made things 109x more capable and conclude that they are innovators in the space?

Even the rando Chinese companies have done a better job cloning spot mini than this.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by tim333 on Saturday October 01, 2022 @12:15PM (#33047693)
More things working outside of imaginationland than most produce in several lifetimes.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by mandeepj on Saturday October 01, 2022 @02:26AM (#33044401)
> tesla will "ship millions" of these this year

Just like million robo taxis in 2020 :-)

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by ilaksh on Saturday October 01, 2022 @03:25AM (#33044727)
I think he said like 3-5 years.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by nixarn on Saturday October 01, 2022 @03:18AM (#33044692)
I look at that and I want a self driving car by Tesla. Did you see the rest of the presentation about their self-driving tech?

This was amazing by this with the short time it's been in development, and the vision for this project is beyond anything that has been done with humanoid robots. Sure they might fail, but it's an exciting venture to follow.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by addicted on Saturday October 01, 2022 @04:24AM (#33044988)
Have they driven from LA to NYC as Elon promises they would by 2019?

Are Model S owners making more money than they are paying in leases thanks to lending their cars as auto cabs like Elon promised they would by 2020?

Is hyper loop even a thing or just something Elon admitted was something he came up with to try and kill public transport alternatives?

The Boston Dynamics Robot is far more of a commercial reality than the CyberTruck if you really want to put things in context.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by panick21_ on Saturday October 01, 2022 @01:59PM (#33048517)
> Have they driven from LA to NYC as Elon promises they would by 2019?

Why do people only ever compare Tesla efforts to Elon expecations.

How many other companies have cars driving around in pretty much every environment on north America? Their competitors have a totally different approach and limit themselves to a few fixed locations that they map out in extreme detail first.

If you take all self driving cars in the world and put them at random locations in the US and tell them to drive somewhere I don't think any company will do better much better then Tesla.

I'm not really a fan of self driving but just clowning Tesla for not reaching the goals set by Elon isn't really interesting or insightful.

> Is hyper loop even a thing or just something Elon admitted was something he came up with to try and kill public transport alternatives?

Hyper loop was never a product. Musk even explicitly stated that it wouldn't be a product anytime soon. He explicitly state they did some evaluation on it and would release an engineering blue paper. This was literally stated outright at the time.

I really don't get the logic 'I wont do X but I find X interesting' and the response a few years later is 'Fuck you, you promised to do X and it didn't happen'. Like that makes people sound insane.

And he never said it was to kill public transport. That was a single news article where a journalist took Musk words out of context to spin his own story.

And people who think California High Speed Rail is failing because of Musk is fucking delusional anyway.

> The Boston Dynamics Robot is far more of a commercial reality than the CyberTruck if you really want to put things in context.

That is totally absurd comparison that makes no sense and illustrates nothing.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by nixarn on Saturday October 01, 2022 @12:06PM (#33047602)
Yeah for sure, the autopilot claims and did not come to fruition, for sure, lots of misses when Elon thinks something happens and when it actually will. I don't think personally he's intentionally deceiving the masses.

Not really sure about the hyperloop / train thingy, need to read up more on it.

And BD's robot is not a commercial reality, how many have sold (if we're talking about Atlas and not the dog)? The Cybertruck will start production next year, sure it's behind initial time-schedule but it will be produced and sold in high numbers.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by esskay on Saturday October 01, 2022 @06:19AM (#33045468)
It's pretty hard to get excited for self driving from Tesla. So many of Musk's claims (i.e almost all of them) have turned out to be complete bullshit. They're seemingly still years away from full autonomy, despite him constantly trying to make people think its coming any day now.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by Telemoto on Saturday October 01, 2022 @05:12AM (#33045187)
BD took ages to be were they are right now.

I actually think Tesla showed more than I expected.

At least we now start the rat race for robots.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by moralestapia on Saturday October 01, 2022 @10:38AM (#33046892)
That rat race started like 30 (40?) years ago in Japan.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by Telemoto on Saturday October 01, 2022 @01:11PM (#33048143)
Probably true but I do mean the real progress part.

Up and running android, big money, fast development.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by m00x on Saturday October 01, 2022 @02:28AM (#33044414)
It was underwhelming, but it's to be expected for 1 year of work.

This is also an electric motor robot vs pneumatic actuators from BD.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by foobiekr on Saturday October 01, 2022 @10:49AM (#33047002)
Choosing the wrong technology and failing to make it work is not an accomplishment.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by panick21_ on Saturday October 01, 2022 @02:01PM (#33048532)
Are you an expert in robotics? Why is electronic actuators worse then hydrolics?

In most other places we are switching away from hydroponics because electronics are getting so advanced.

Electronic actuators is defiantly cheaper and simpler so for a consumer product its seems to be the right choice.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by nikau on Saturday October 01, 2022 @11:35AM (#33047352)
hold my gigapress
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by benj111 on Saturday October 01, 2022 @07:55AM (#33045921)
Why are electric motors better?

Excavators etc use hydrolics, presumably for a reason.

I suppose if you want dexterity? But then you'd lose load carrying?

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by cosgrove on Sunday October 02, 2022 @05:27PM (#33060454)
Did you see the part where the single Tesla actuator was lifting the piano up and down?
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by benj111 on Monday October 03, 2022 @02:04PM (#33071329)
Yes but if you're statically holding it that's going to burn out motors etc? And just because it can, doesn't mean it's better.

But anyway it was just a general question. It doesn't seem self evident to me that electric motors are 'better' so I was just wanting someone to chime in and explain.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by martindbp on Saturday October 01, 2022 @01:29AM (#33044156)
Yes, a bit underwhelming, but it's a recruitment event and you've got to start somewhere. Question is how fast and if they can catch up with BD in terms of control.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by justapassenger on Saturday October 01, 2022 @02:04AM (#33044306)
I assume they’ll catchup as fast as they catch up with their FSD to Waymo. Which is driving customers for years, while Tesla’s FSD cannot go without intervention for more than few miles, at best, in any more complex environment. And yes, I know Waymo uses HD maps and limited geo area. So does Tesla, and they’re explicitly mapping and testing areas driven by popular influencers.

And it’s assuming that there’s actually a market for humanoid robots. Other than futurology folks getting excited about that form factor, there’s no real market for it, and research shows that humanoids robots are almost never a most optimal answer.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by panick21_ on Saturday October 01, 2022 @02:04PM (#33048560)
> So does Tesla, and they’re explicitly mapping and testing areas driven by popular influencers.

This seems like a nonsensical swing at Tesla. They have literally 100000s of people on the road with FSD in all of the US.

Claiming that its a few influences is just outright lying.

You are also totally wrong in your understanding of how Tesla FSD works. They are not mapping those areas, save those maps and make them available to other cars. That is explicitly not what they are doing.

More accurate to say that they are building a training set with the input from 100000s of cars driving around literally all over the US.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by martindbp on Saturday October 01, 2022 @02:27AM (#33044402)
If you mean catch up as in FSD is making billions while Waymo is losing billions, yes the comparison is apt. Boston Dynamics tech is very impressive but they don't seem very good at commercializing it. Tesla bot may be janky now, but I could imagine it could do some useful tasks in their factories in 5-8 years or so. We'll see, I think the development will take even longer than self-driving, but at least it will be fun to follow the progress if they're as open as with FSD
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by m00x on Saturday October 01, 2022 @02:30AM (#33044424)
Tesla FSD isn't making billions. What are you on?
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by martindbp on Saturday October 01, 2022 @02:39AM (#33044471)
It is. Let's check by two measures:

1. 160k people have bought and recieved FSD Beta at somewhere between $5 and $15k (today's price). Let's say an average of $8k, that means $1.28 billion. More have bought it but are waiting to get access.

2. FSD take rate is estimated as of now to be around 7% of vehicles sold world-wide. At the current price of $15k and the estimated 1.4 million vehicles sold this year, that amounts to $1.47 billion.

Numbers are rough estimates, 50% of revenue is held in reserve until FSD is out of beta, and many haven't received the beta yet, still by any measure they are making and will make billions. What you personally think of the product, or if you think Elon is a "snake oil salesman" is not really relevant.

To strong arm any counter argument, it's possible that all these buyers will realize it actually sucks/doesn't work, sue the company and the whole thing falls apart, but I don't see any indication of it. There are plenty of unhappy and happy customers with FSD, but they've clearly found something that people are willing to pay a lot for and many are happy with it. Clearly it needs to improve much further in order to sell this to the wider public beyond people who think it's fun to babysit an AI.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by Veserv on Saturday October 01, 2022 @06:51AM (#33045597)
The product Tesla has sold for money is incomplete with no credible projected date of completion as the general problem of L4/L5 driving has never been solved before. Any profit from pre-selling a solution to a never-before-solved problem which requires an unknown amount of future work to make work as advertised absolutely does not count as “making billions”.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by benj111 on Saturday October 01, 2022 @07:59AM (#33045942)
technically that's still not billions.

It's still crazy to me that people are paying all this money now for a product that still isn't delivering the promises of 5 years ago though.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by onethought on Saturday October 01, 2022 @04:31PM (#33049824)
Because it costs the same amount as the “auto-park” feature on a Volkswagen - and it auto parks as well. So think of it as “auto-park feature at market rate, that might self drive in the future, for free” - no brainer

The criticism of Tesla is always devoid of context of the rest of the car industry.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by fzeroracer on Saturday October 01, 2022 @03:14AM (#33044664)
Are you including the amount they're losing by having to recall those vehicles with FSD? Or the fact that there are lawsuits over how FSD doesn't work? Or any number of accidents caused by FSD being clearly buggy?

Like ignoring how poor your breakdown is over it making 'billions' they've been hit by wave after wave of bad PR. Like the various videos and lawsuits over how poor their quality control is and how many lies they've peddled over FSD.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by martindbp on Saturday October 01, 2022 @03:30AM (#33044745)
> Are you including the amount they're losing by having to recall those vehicles with FSD?

There has been one "recall" of FSD, which was for including the option to do a rolling stop at stop signs. They fixed this with an OTA update at the request of NHTSA. Total cost: a few dollars

> Or the fact that there are lawsuits over how FSD doesn't work?

Show me the lawsuits that have been lost and how much the damages were

> Or any number of accidents caused by FSD being clearly buggy?

FSD requires supervision, as such accidents are currently the responsibility of the driver. Even so, besides minor accidents there haven't been any confirmed crashes or anyone being hurt yet. With 160k cars on the road you'd expect worse. And again, this doesn't affect how much money they've made in selling the software.

> Like the various videos and lawsuits over how poor their quality control

You mean the video created by Dan O'Dowd of Green Hill Software, a competitor in automated car software?

Your hate doesn't change the numbers. Maybe you're right and everything comes crashing down, who knows. But this is the current reality.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by whinvik on Saturday October 01, 2022 @01:52AM (#33044258)
It seems strange that this comment was so aggressively down voted. Anything related to Elon gets the same treatment by HN that I feel that Elon invites a visceral rather than an objective reaction.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by justapassenger on Saturday October 01, 2022 @02:07AM (#33044319)
Because Elon is snakes oil salesman, who thinks he’s smartest and most important human in the history. He also happens to have some very successful products, that his fan base uses to silence any criticism.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by martindbp on Saturday October 01, 2022 @02:54AM (#33044561)
If snake-oil salesmanship is all it takes to land rockets vertically and single-handily kickstart the transition to EVs I'm all for it. We need more snake-oil salesmen leading corporate America!
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by nixarn on Saturday October 01, 2022 @03:22AM (#33044715)
There can't be any objective discussions about Elon any more =) John Carmack finds Elon to be smart and really knowledgeable (listen to the latest podcast from Lex Fridman). And you would think HN trusts the words from Carmack? But most think Carmack, who knows Elon personally is wrong, and their opinion based on some random internet articles, is right.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by addicted on Saturday October 01, 2022 @04:28AM (#33045002)
Elon is super smart. He’s also a snake oil salesman.

These are not contradictory statements.

Unfortunately he chose his intelligence to enrich himself by fooling others. He could have chosen other options. It looked like that was the direction he was going in. By trying to help people. But it’s clear at some point he realized he can make far more money claiming to do something than by actually doing something and decided to focus on that.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by martindbp on Saturday October 01, 2022 @04:39AM (#33045049)
> Unfortunately he chose his intelligence to enrich himself by fooling others.

You make it sound like he's selling ads online or something, not building rockets and electric cars, self-driving software and now robots? Like, if you wanted to make as much money as possible and "fool" people as you say, doing a rocket company and a new car company at the same time, pouring all the $100m you earned from selling your previous company, being months from bankruptcy in both ventures seem like a very roundabout and stressful way of becoming a billionaire.

I don't understand where you people get your world view from, are you exclusively reading click-bait news headlines and coming to the conclusion that Elon=Bad? How about reading some actual accounts of the early days at SpaceX for example? I can recommend "Liftoff", it's very balanced, focuses mostly on the employees of SpaceX and doesn't try to paint Elon as some kind of heroic figure, but gives credit where it's due. He comes off as a highly technical, maniacal, single-minded founder, inspiring but working his staff to the bones, and sure, also has some darker sides to his personality. It's the kind of personality that's required to pull these things off.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by tim333 on Saturday October 01, 2022 @12:29PM (#33047803)
I see no snake oil and a lot of cars, rockets and satellites which all seem to work quite well.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by justapassenger on Saturday October 01, 2022 @11:01AM (#33047097)
Exactly. He lands rockets so he cannot lie? Is that a new law of universe?
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by panick21_ on Saturday October 01, 2022 @02:07PM (#33048582)
So he is at the same time a snake oil salesmen that also not a snake oil salesmen because he revolutionized 2 major capital intensive industries.

You realize that makes no sense?

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by martindbp on Saturday October 01, 2022 @07:11PM (#33051044)
People just can't give someone any credit if they don't like the person or they have slightly different political views, I guess it's just the times we live in, zero tolerance.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by sixQuarks on Saturday October 01, 2022 @05:19PM (#33050206)
Anyone who uses the word “snake oil salesman” to describe Elon Musk is delusional and has gone way too deep down the anti-Elon rabbit hole.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by devb on Sunday October 02, 2022 @08:18AM (#33055257)
Do you at least get paid for this?
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by sixQuarks on Sunday October 02, 2022 @11:46AM (#33056935)
Kind of actually. 10x’ed my net worth since 2019 with TSLA stock. It pays when you can see through the BS fud like your statements.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by chinabot on Saturday October 01, 2022 @02:18AM (#33044361)
He's generally a force of good for the world but can come over as a bit of a dick sometimes, there are much worse people out there if you need to hate on someone.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by justapassenger on Saturday October 01, 2022 @12:16PM (#33047696)
I don’t know. Richest person in the world, whose ego is only thing bigger than his wealth, is pretty good person to direct at least some hate at.

And while some of his lies are just to kill competition/extract money from the rich (like FSD), but some are just disgusting.

With neuralink he was openly telling people for few years that his implants will solve their health issues. Implants that killed most of the monkeys in the labs.

It’s disgusting to lie to people with really serious health conditions, give them false hope and likely have them reject other treatments, because Elon said he’ll fix them. You don’t think it’s a good reason to pour some hate at him?

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by panick21_ on Saturday October 01, 2022 @02:11PM (#33048617)
> With neuralink he was openly telling people for few years that his implants will solve their health issues.

He has invested mostly his own money in that.

Are you claiming there is no medical use what so ever for the technology they are developing?

Based on what knowlage do you make that claim?

> Implants that killed most of the monkeys in the labs.

What data is that based on?

> It’s disgusting to lie to people with really serious health conditions, give them false hope and likely have them reject other treatments, because Elon said he’ll fix them.

What? I have heard most of Neurolinks presentation and not a single time did Elon ever suggest that people just delay other treatments. Neurolink has clearly mostly done animal trials and product demonstrations.

I at least have never heard Musk claim that Neurolink would have a product on the market within a short time period.

Please provide sources for these claims?

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by chinabot on Saturday October 01, 2022 @04:01PM (#33049527)
I used to think like this, then I looked at myself.
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by the_only_law on Saturday October 01, 2022 @04:14PM (#33049675)
I need someone better to dickride. Got any options?
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by cosgrove on Sunday October 02, 2022 @05:26PM (#33060446)
Here's a good thread about Optimus vs. Atlas: https://twitter.com/EzerRatchaga/status/1576140275847610369
Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by memish on Saturday October 01, 2022 @02:29AM (#33044417)
How many Boston Dynamics robots have been made and what's the price? And how long ago did they start?

Tesla is going for volume and just started.

Re:Tesla AI Day 2022 by addicted on Saturday October 01, 2022 @04:22AM (#33044977)
Before we even mention Boston Dynamics, can we talk about how it compares to the Honda Asimo?

Because it doesn’t.