I realised that even if I believed in the long-term business model of the company, having a significant portion of my money tied up with a single stock was not a good idea.
It would have still been a good idea even if those shares hadn't lost 90% of their value in the following year.
All you need to do is time the next downturn...
I have (and continue to) err on the side of diversification. Without fail, I have simultaneously regretted it and done better than colleagues that held and tried to time the market.
I could have realisitically made 2x what I did. However, I also could have made half as much (and know people that did halve their income playing these games). Halving my income would have had a much bigger impact than doubling it.
> I have (and continue to) err on the side of diversification
I'm in the same camp as you, and the point I always make is that: If I'm wrong and our company stock sky rockets, beating everyone else in the market, then great! I still have unvested RSUs, we'll get larger bonuses, plus my job security has increased, sure I missed out on even more gain but I'm in a good place!
If I'm right, and something bad happens to my employer, at least my loses will be reduced by my other investments. I don't have to worry about everything falling apart at once.
Which I suppose is the entire point of variance reduction in the first place: it makes the great times a bit less great, but also makes the worse times not so bad.
That's correct, whether you sell them immediately or hold them.
> and only gains and losses from that point are considered capital gains or losses
That is also correct and was my original point. If you sell immediately, you've already paid the (personal income rate) tax and you're done. But if you don't sell immediately, waiting a year is preferable so you are able to claim the long term capital gain rate instead of paying the short term/income rate.
I'm amazed at how many people that get a significant portion of their comp as RSUs hang on to their shares after vesting.
During this insane bull market it's happened to work out, but having your income and a major portion (for most tech workers) of your assets perfectly correlated is absolutely a bad investment idea, not to mention the fact that you can only trade during approved windows and are not allowed to do any hedging (such as buying protective puts).
Even if you're wildly bullish on your company, at the very least diversify a bit with highly correlated stocks (for example if you're a GOOG during the last decade at least split it up among other FAANG). This way you can at least protect yourself in the event that your particular company gets hit hard.
It's incredible how far away the dotcom burst is in people's minds (or even 2008). Cheap money has led to an insane period of growth in tech, but investing as though that were the norm is very risky (without even optimizing your reward for that risk).