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A comment on Futurist prediction methods and accuracy. Parent comment

Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy by Analemma_ on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @05:08PM (#32830198)
Note that Caplan does have a handful of losing bets for which the deadline simply hasn't arrived yet. For example, he made an anti-global-warming bet that average temperatures wouldn't rise faster in the 2015-2030 span than they did over 2000-2015, which he has all but lost unless we plunge into an ice age tomorrow; it's just that the end of the bet isn't for another seven years.
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Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy by yen223 on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @08:37PM (#32831903)
He also appears to have lucked out a little with the "No major country will withdraw from the EU" bet. His deadline was Jan 1, 2020, but the UK withdrew on Jan 31, 2020.
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Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy by tomjakubowski on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @08:00PM (#32831664)
Caplan can still get a push on that bet if NOAA stops publishing the data before the end of 2029. Two presidential elections to go.
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Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy by yuan43 on Wednesday September 14, 2022 @11:09AM (#32838323)
I would not rule that out, and maybe that was part of his thinking.
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Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy by tomjakubowski on Wednesday September 14, 2022 @01:40PM (#32840576)
Maybe, but the push outcome has no upside. I have no idea where he saw any upside in this bet.
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