Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
by Analemma_ on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @05:08PM
(#32830198)
Note that Caplan does have a handful of losing bets for which the deadline simply hasn't arrived yet. For example, he made an anti-global-warming bet that average temperatures wouldn't rise faster in the 2015-2030 span than they did over 2000-2015, which he has all but lost unless we plunge into an ice age tomorrow; it's just that the end of the bet isn't for another seven years.
Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
by yen223 on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @08:37PM
(#32831903)
He also appears to have lucked out a little with the "No major country will withdraw from the EU" bet. His deadline was Jan 1, 2020, but the UK withdrew on Jan 31, 2020.
Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
by tomjakubowski on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @08:00PM
(#32831664)
Caplan can still get a push on that bet if NOAA stops publishing the data before the end of 2029. Two presidential elections to go.
Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
by yuan43 on Wednesday September 14, 2022 @11:09AM
(#32838323)
I would not rule that out, and maybe that was part of his thinking.
Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
by tomjakubowski on Wednesday September 14, 2022 @01:40PM
(#32840576)
Maybe, but the push outcome has no upside. I have no idea where he saw any upside in this bet.
Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
by actuallyalys on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @09:01PM
(#32832051)
The article does say that Caplan "Relies on: taking the "other side" of bad bets/predictions people make and mostly relying on making very conservative predictions." And later on in the article he covers the advantage (basically, a "tax on bullshit") and the limitation (probably won't learn about important future trends).
But I was surprised to find that the article did not say much about the bets themselves, nor analyze in any great detail what exactly Caplan is doing. Indeed, it's not even possible based on the article AFAICT to check the 100% figure (23/23) independently.
Hopping through some links, I found this list:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARA...
What's interesting is how many of Caplan's bets favor a continuation of the status quo against an opponent believing in a more extreme outcome.
The open bets are also interesting. Consider this one:
> You pay me $x today. If any European country that was not Communist in 1988 has a civil war leading to 10,000 or more fatalities between today and December 31, 2045, I will immediately pay you $11x.” (initial terms, final terms here) 09/24/2015. Status: open.
That said, the language prevents me from figuring out which side Caplan bet on. This is a problem with many of the terms, but fortunately the winner is given as Caplan. Not so in this case.
Given Caplan's apparently conservative bent, I suspect he's "me".