Let me call Angela Merkel.
Considering India and Russia has no common border and global interests are mostly aligned, repeat of situation is extremely unlikely. With any critical import you take a risk but this one is pretty small as far as geopolitical risks go.
If the U.S did reasonable things they wouldn't have attacked Iraq.
> Russia is holding on and shows no signs of cracking.
I don't understand how people can think this when Russia is heavily recruiting from prisons and rolling out ancient T-62s, Russias modern weaponry continually gets depleted whilst Ukraine gets more modern weaponry every month. I think the first main cracking point will be the Russian retreat / Ukrainian recapture of Kherson in the coming months.
This is not an option, due to the amount of lives and equipment lost I don't think Russia has the option to pull out. It's a bit hard to have 50k casualties and lose thousands of pieces armoured equipment, hundreds of planes and just be like 'actually that was for nothing'.
> Ukraine would still be a very dysfunctional country with the threat of Russian invasion always on the background
I think Russia has more of a problem the longer the war goes on Ukraine is already going to receive NASAMS and IRIS-T anti air equipment from the US and Germany, which would significantly change the balance in the ability for Ukraine to control the sky.
The weapons aren't going to stop until Ukraine wins, pulling out also means losing Crimea and all the other gains they had made from 2014 until prior to the full on invasion.
Ukraine is more than capable of hitting installations in Russia even in their current degraded state, I don't think anyones gonna let Russia go back over the line and wash their hands of it.
> What does Russia gain out of all this shit I have no idea but my point remains is that Russia can keep this up if it wants to
Can it though? Russia is quickly running out of pretty much everything, they aren't using T-62s (tanks that don't even have a autoloader, a staple of Russian and even USSR tanks) because they want to its because they have to. I think the systemic corruption in Russia means they cannot fight this war for that long, for more then now? sure, but for years? im not so sure.
> The average Russian citizen is either fine with what's happening (surprisingly many) or too afraid to do anything. It's very hard to predict but the chance of Russia making it like this cannot be ignored imo. If you want to this how a country can make it like this look at Iran.
The longer this goes on the more the average Russian will be affected, the more assets that will be seized, the more people that will be sanctioned and the more companies that will pull out.
With Bush's invasion of Iraq, he ran the risk of losing the 2004 reelection. Putin doesn't even face that risk.
If Russia loses, they will withdraw to their borders. In the worst case they lose access to the Caspian sea. If not, they will acquire Ukraine.
The real loser is Ukraine, no matter what happens from here on.
It only looks like this because it’s being propped up by massive cash spending of Russian foreign reserves and because it cannot be traded internationally in any significant volume.
If the economy is doing so well why did Gazprom and Sberbank cancel it’s dividend with Russia?. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/30/state-firms-gazpro...
> If Russia loses, they will withdraw to their borders. In the worst case they lose access to the Caspian sea. If not, they will acquire Ukraine.
If Russia losses they lose access to their Black Sea headquarters and also Crimea. They also face quite badly, but I guess that’s really already come to pass no one thinks Russia is the number two army in the world anymore.
Even if Russia did capture Ukraine they would face a long insurgency that would make Afghanistan look like a cake walk. I initially thought Russia would capture a lot of land early on but I didn’t they would be able to hold it, and we already seeing this with how many collaborators and Russian soldiers keep dying in occupied cities from partisans.
> The real loser is Ukraine, no matter what happens from here on.
This is hundred percent true but they lose much harder if they just let the genocidal Russians take over Ukraine and keep committing genocide against them.
What food security challenges does India have? India has been much poorer in the past and hasn't had any food security issues in a long time.
It sounds like a trivial price increase maybe to some people in more affluent countries but some in Latin America, it was a pretty challenging price increase.
My personal groceries bill is about 25$usd per week, meat vegetables and a bit of cereal goods. Used to be less within a decade ago, but hey what can you do - North America I was paying closer to 100
India's past issues with food scarcity were due to a combination of mismanagement and theft. Partly the british empire and partly the lack of skills in India. Widespread crop failures haven't been a thing for a while now.
It's a win-win for India.
Honestly the main thing that keeps me from moving back is quality of life concerns with traffic, air quality, and noise pollution.
India is amazing and dynamic in a lot of ways, but there are major intangibles to account for (like how much one values a quiet evening walk in fresh air).
By and large NRIs moving back from US end up in the usual metros at least in the beginning.
Hopefully between fibre penetration and WFH culture things will improve.
Which is great if you’re a socially extroverted person but if you want to get some work done, not the best case scenario
When the FDI dries up, India is a very weird place. The energy costs will put a number in Asia and Europe in the next decade with dramatic food security challenges.
Overall, at macro level, US beats India, but are there positive offshoots in some niches.. perhaps!