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A comment on Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?.

Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by mikewarot on Sunday August 07, 2022 @06:11PM (#32380420)
Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for thos countries dependent on imported food or energy.

It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them)

Energy Blindness -- We're so used to having free flowing oil cheap enough to burn for energy, it's an assumption built into everything. Unless we plan for the end of easy to reach oil, we could have supply chains collapsing everywhere.

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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by tkgally on Monday August 08, 2022 @09:25AM (#32385080)
> Deglobalization

That’s what I was going to say. Some people have been talking about it [1, 2], but it’s not yet getting the attention it deserves.

[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20220702164210/https://www.nytim...

[2] https://www.harperbusiness.com/book/9780063230477/The-End-of...

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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by TrapLord_Rhodo on Monday August 08, 2022 @04:56PM (#32390911)
For discussing deglobalization, those articles have a very perceivable 'Western Bias' and i'm from the US
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by mullen on Monday August 08, 2022 @04:45PM (#32390797)
> Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for those countries dependent on imported food or energy

Hogwash. Globalization is good, Globalization is here to stay. Whatever is the current location causing issues with Globalization will simply be routed around. There are plenty of countries that would love to be part of the global supply chain with. The only way any manufacturing is coming back to the rich industrialized countries is that it involves a lot of really good robots. Which is also good.

> It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them)

Again, hogwash. The market will force diets to change and producers will start producing more. Fertilizer production could be an issue but again, diets and markets will adjust.

> Energy Blindness -- We're so used to having free flowing oil cheap enough to burn for energy, it's an assumption built into everything. Unless we plan for the end of easy to reach oil, we could have supply chains collapsing everywhere.

A known issue that will not happen overnight. The world is racing toward non-oil based energy, so I don't see this being an issue. Don't get me wrong, this one I actually agree with, but it won't happen overnight. The world/markets will adapt.

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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by esel2k on Tuesday August 09, 2022 @06:40AM (#32396122)
You mention markets will adopt as response. To a degree yes and probably richer countries, but I don’t believe poorer countries will. Let’s take East Africa as example: If your boat full of corn doesn’t arrive it does not arrive, full stop. There is little to adjust. Same goes with medication. We often think in front of our doors, but if large, economically important countries start to struggle with food or medicine , there will be an impact on others as well.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by creakingstairs on Monday August 08, 2022 @06:36PM (#32391989)
I don’t think the current state of globalisation can last. It won’t be complete deglobalisation either.

I think we’d see the world market divided in two. It’s already starting with semi conductors (chip 4 alliance).

For some key industries US will also bring some of the manufacturing in house instead of only relying on allies. Again you are already seeing this with semi conductors: US is bringing manufacturing to its own soil and South Korea has already made some raw material processing domestic instead of relying on cheaper global market.

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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by Thorentis on Monday August 08, 2022 @05:55PM (#32391597)
Energy is one thing, but I don't see any good replacements for plastics, especially medical grade plastic. We rely on oil for far more than just energy.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by HobbseanMess on Sunday August 14, 2022 @12:14AM (#32456266)
Virtually everything you said is wrong.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by tootie on Monday August 08, 2022 @12:30PM (#32387657)
"Next year or two" is extremely unlikely. The US is absolutely no going to switch back to a manufacturing base. It's only attempting to gain leverage against adversaries when it comes to critical supply chain components. China is all but guaranteed to see slowing growth compared to the past 40 years simply because there aren't enough farmers left to exploit for cheap labor and living standards are already so much higher. They'll be in for mild economic winter then emerge just fine. Famine seems incredibly unlikely anywhere in the world.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by nostrebored on Monday August 08, 2022 @03:52PM (#32390221)
But critical supply chain components are more frequent than people would like to think. In a period where sea freight becomes less stable, it's not a question of 'what goods can we not live without' but 'what goods can we not live without if delivery isn't stable and regular'?

The U.S. is already losing sea hegemony. This was a key piece that enabled globalization to begin with.

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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by azemetre on Monday August 08, 2022 @04:56PM (#32390906)
Do you have examples of freight becoming unstable due to military actions and not supply constraints? The de globalization thesis makes sense but I don’t see examples of regional powers flexing their muscles causing supply chain problems, at least not publicly.

I suppose Russia is an obvious example in the EU but are their other examples?

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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by pasttense01 on Tuesday August 09, 2022 @01:14AM (#32394391)
The answer to 'what goods can we not live without if delivery isn't stable and regular' is that you go back to the traditional approach which was used for centuries when delivery wasn't stable and regular: simply keep large inventories of the goods. [In recent decades business switched to Just In Time, but this has been shown not to work with irregular delivery--so business is going back to the traditional methods.]
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by JasserInicide on Monday August 08, 2022 @09:45AM (#32385287)
Deglobalization

I mean, I think it'd be nice, but in the US our leaders are so fucking corrupt and owned by business interests that I don't see it happening until at least all the boomers/Gen Xers die off.

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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by aaronsimpson on Monday August 08, 2022 @10:12AM (#32385599)
Is globalization really the result of corrupt leaders though, or a shift in corporate practice to accommodate the rising demands of consumers? It seems like no amount of corruption really matters as long as we're drinking lattes and eating avocado every day.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by orangepurple on Monday August 08, 2022 @11:19AM (#32386494)
It's cyclical because demand is induced through media propaganda. In turn US media is owned by oligarchs, which in turn have a stake in companies that benefit from rising demands of consumers.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by aaronsimpson on Monday August 08, 2022 @03:29PM (#32389918)
I think your understanding of how consumers come to the decisions they do is sorely lacking in terms of stripping agency from the people that consume. We're not blank slate robots.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by orangepurple on Monday August 08, 2022 @03:56PM (#32390270)
So much of what people purchase is based on what will maintain or elevate their social standing within their social circle. Media reinforces these stereotypes by showing idealized applications of products. This affects people through subliminal messaging. It works. Subliminal messages exert long-term effects on decision-making. You can freely read the paper by the same name.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by asdff on Monday August 08, 2022 @03:33PM (#32389971)
OTOH demand only rose because of corporate advertising pushing a consumerist culture. They made the demand. People didn't want corn flakes before they existed. Things are made then marketed not the other way around.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by swader999 on Monday August 08, 2022 @02:36PM (#32389240)
It has a lot to do with shipping and protection of trade routes. That is about to become a lot more harder and more expensive.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by SoftTalker on Monday August 08, 2022 @09:52AM (#32385373)
Of course when they were young, the Boomers said that about all the people in power at that time. Big government power attracts corruptible people. This doesn't change in a generation. It probably doesn't change ever.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by orangepurple on Monday August 08, 2022 @11:20AM (#32386524)
I'd go a step further and assert that big government generally only allows corruptible people to ascend in power
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by tootie on Monday August 08, 2022 @12:28PM (#32387627)
I think OP is talking about the semiconductor bill that already passed with bipartisan support.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by mikewarot on Monday August 08, 2022 @03:38PM (#32390050)
No, I'm expecting supply chain collapses in China and Russia, and mass starvation in the next few years.

I hope like hell I'm wrong about this!

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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by kvothe_ on Monday August 08, 2022 @09:34AM (#32385176)
unlikely we'll rebuild locally. We will outsource it to a friendlier country with cheap labor. In 50 yrs the cycle will repeat. (Probably South America.)
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by orangepurple on Monday August 08, 2022 @11:22AM (#32386556)
That country will be Mexico. There is already a strong logistics relationship with that country and it will only get stronger
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by TrapLord_Rhodo on Monday August 08, 2022 @04:58PM (#32390936)
Colombia has one of the biggest ports in the Gulf. With the huge flight of people out of Venezuela into colombia, I foresee labor being very cheap there and logistics to southern states very cheap.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by whimsicalism on Monday August 08, 2022 @06:38PM (#32392013)
Not for chips it won't be.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by kragen on Monday August 08, 2022 @09:44AM (#32385274)
How does rebuilding manufacturing work? Does it look the same as it did 50 years ago, or is it different? What happens if the attempt fails?
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by orangepurple on Monday August 08, 2022 @11:23AM (#32386576)
There is too much environmental and labor regulation in the US so it will have to be done in a puppet state in geographical proximity to the US.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by swader999 on Monday August 08, 2022 @02:37PM (#32389251)
Robots this time.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by kragen on Tuesday August 09, 2022 @02:38PM (#32402055)
Can you elaborate? "Robots" is more a slogan or even a metaphor than a plan.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by pasttense01 on Tuesday August 09, 2022 @01:03AM (#32394342)
The U.S. uses 40% of its corn crop to make ethanol. If the famine situation actually happens this will shift to food for people.
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Re:Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are tal... by yrgulation on Monday August 08, 2022 @11:35AM (#32386781)
The issue is that this goes both ways. The eu is regularly imposing harsh rules on american tech. With deglobalisation there will be job losses as there will be fewer open markets.
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