Yes, the U.S. economy is likely in recession

Re:Yes, the U.S. economy is likely in recession by rob74 on Wednesday August 03, 2022 @10:13AM (#32331936)

Politics aside, as a non-native speaker this makes me think of the word "likely". If you use it, just how likely is the event that you apply it to? Is it equivalent to "probably", or to "possibly"? In German we have "wahrscheinlich", which is the same as "probably" (and "Wahrscheinlichkeit", "probability" and "likelihood" are synonyms), so that would mean "likely" is the same as "probably"?

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Re:Yes, the U.S. economy is likely in recession by guitarbill on Wednesday August 03, 2022 @10:29AM (#32332193)

There is another possibility: stating something as a fact could have legal implications (especially if it isn't "true"), but stating an opinion is often fine. So, I would read this as "Our opinion is the U.S. economy is in a recession (not a fact)", despite the article trying to convince you. It even finishes off with

> "we can be highly confident that the U.S. economy entered a recession early in 2022."

which is stronger than "likely", but still shy of saying that it is so.

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Re:Yes, the U.S. economy is likely in recession by ajkjk on Wednesday August 03, 2022 @10:18AM (#32332013)

In this title I feel like the word "likely" is a bit inappropriate and "probably" would make more sense. "Likely" implies a bit more.. probabilistic reasoning, whereas gauging a recession is more a question of how you define it. But here, I guess, it's just being used as a slightly more professional way to say "probably", and should be taken to mean exactly the same thing in this case.

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Re:Yes, the U.S. economy is likely in recession by xanaxagoras on Wednesday August 03, 2022 @10:28AM (#32332161)

Yes, this usage is basically "wahrscheinlich". Here it is a rhetorical device to soften the author's conclusion:

> The bottom line is that, with the announcement on July 28 of a two-quarter GDP decline, we can be highly confident that the U.S. economy entered a recession early in 2022.

This will usually be the case. When something is likely X it is probably X, not possibly X.

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Re:Yes, the U.S. economy is likely in recession by jack_squat on Wednesday August 03, 2022 @10:20AM (#32332043)

If something is "likely", I would assume it's more likely than not.

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