There is another possibility: stating something as a fact could have legal implications (especially if it isn't "true"), but stating an opinion is often fine. So, I would read this as "Our opinion is the U.S. economy is in a recession (not a fact)", despite the article trying to convince you. It even finishes off with

> "we can be highly confident that the U.S. economy entered a recession early in 2022."

which is stronger than "likely", but still shy of saying that it is so.