we had strong unions back then which would demand double-digit COLA raises in salary producing a wage-price spiral.

given how people could actually afford homes back then, though, i don't think this was a particularly bad thing.

what we have now contains all the inflation in the system to the upper class and asset bubbles.

we need either to have the cost of housing deflate or the wages paid to inflate. it will be less painful to inflate wages. this isn't what we're going to do though.

Optimistically I’d guess we’re looking at 3-5 years to get inflation under control and that might include a recession (thats already started).

What it does sound like is younger people hoping for a recession because they think it will collapse housing prices. They’re wrong, but what’s new.

2 quarters of negative GDP growth is a recession. We’ve had 1 quarter so far and lay offs are increasing.

I hope not, but with increasing rates we stand a good chance.

The highest authority on this matter is the NBER. Their definition is pasted, below. I don’t see a significant decline and so far it has not impacted employment. We’re still adding a quarter million net jobs each month.

“A significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

> What it does sound like is younger people hoping for a recession because they think it will collapse housing prices. They’re wrong, but what’s new.

I wish I had your crystal ball.

But the easiest way to guess at the future is to look at similar problems of the past.

Bank of Canada already said inflation won’t be under control for 2 more years.

If America were producing its own things alone, the supply shock would have pushed inflation much much higher.

We are extremely privileged to be able to acquire resources even if one producer goes down.

9.1% isn't massive?

I agree with this part of your post.

> And you mean western sanctions, not Ukraine.

But not this part. Ukraine used to export a bunch of stuff that Russia has now destroyed.

Ukraine doesn’t even list on it. They produce grain the news says… about 1/3 as much wheat as Russia.

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/top-wheat-producing-coun...

I can go on, but to put it simply Russian (and Belarus) GDP is much higher than Ukraine GDP. It’s safe to assume they produce more and strict sanctions on them will have a greater impact. Ukraine is still producing, so some of their goods are still able to come to market. That said, yes some was destroyed / impacted I’m sure — but again, far less than sanctions or the lockdowns.

How do we know they'd stop at Ukraine?

The peace for our time. - September 1938, Chamberlain