What it does sound like is younger people hoping for a recession because they think it will collapse housing prices. They’re wrong, but what’s new.
2 quarters of negative GDP growth is a recession. We’ve had 1 quarter so far and lay offs are increasing.
I hope not, but with increasing rates we stand a good chance.
The highest authority on this matter is the NBER. Their definition is pasted, below. I don’t see a significant decline and so far it has not impacted employment. We’re still adding a quarter million net jobs each month.
“A significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
> What it does sound like is younger people hoping for a recession because they think it will collapse housing prices. They’re wrong, but what’s new.
I wish I had your crystal ball.
Optimistically I’d guess we’re looking at 3-5 years to get inflation under control and that might include a recession (thats already started).